Bidezarra vs Huarte
Match result probability Model pick: Bidezarra win
Bidezarra winPick
36.6%
Draw
28.8%
Huarte win
34.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes50.9%
No49.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.548.3%
Under 2.551.7%
How much we know
Bidezarra history48 matches
Huarte history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Bidezarra
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.6%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Bidezarra are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Huarte are rated 39 Elo points higher
Elo 1,505 against 1,467. On rating alone Huarte would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
-
Huarte score more
1.00 goals a game over 48 matches for Bidezarra, against 1.51 over 47 for Huarte.
-
Defences are close
Bidezarra concede 1.27 a game, Huarte 1.34.
-
Huarte games more often go over 2.5 goals
38% of Bidezarra matches, against 60% for Huarte. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Huarte@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1466.8
ELO
1505.5
48
ELO · Matches
47
1466.8
Current Team ELO
1505.5
1505.5
Current Opponent ELO
1466.8
-38.72
Current ELO Difference
38.72
0.44
Expected score
0.56
48
History Matches
47
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.01
47.72
Overperformance
50.54
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.60
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
0.90
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.34
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.80
Overall performance9 signals 90
48
Matches
47
1.08
PPG
1.51
27.1%
Win rate
46.8%
27.1%
Draw rate
10.6%
45.8%
Loss rate
42.6%
60.4%
Over 1.5 rate
72.3%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
59.6%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
36.2%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals 100
24
Matches
23
1.38
PPG
1.17
33.3%
Win rate
34.8%
37.5%
Draw rate
13.0%
29.2%
Loss rate
52.2%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
65.2%
20.8%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.29
24
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.00
Goals for per game
1.51
58.3%
Scoring rate
76.6%
45.8%
BTTS rate
55.3%
1.17
Goals for per game
1.26
58.3%
Scoring rate
69.6%
41.7%
BTTS rate
56.5%
48
History Matches
47
1.00
Goals Mean
1.51
1.17
Goals Std
1.11
58.3%
Scored 1+ rate
76.6%
20.8%
Scored 2+ rate
51.1%
14.6%
Scored 3+ rate
21.3%
1.17
Venue Goals Mean
1.26
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.27
Goals against per game
1.34
75.0%
Conceding rate
74.5%
0.88
Goals against per game
1.52
70.8%
Conceding rate
78.3%
48
History Matches
47
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.34
1.13
Conceded Std
1.19
31.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.0%
14.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.0%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
1.52
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.4%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
23.4%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
41.7%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
48
History Matches
47
0.97
Result entropy
0.87
1.52
Goal Difference Std
1.67
3.05
Stability score
12.86
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
47
Eligible Matches
47
9
Lead Matches
11
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.91
12
Trailing Matches
11
16.7%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
27.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.51
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.02
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
189.0
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
21
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
26
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.37
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.16
Portability PPG Std
0.15
0.32
Portability PPG Range
0.29
76.04
Portability Score
77.52
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
48
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-38.72
PPG-0.43
GF-0.51
GA-0.07
PPG0.20
PPG-0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate18.3%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate7.4%
Failed-to-score rate11.2%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.51
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate-0.30
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.34
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.65
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.31
History Matches1
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score-9.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.43
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.24
Lead Points Retention-0.13
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate-0.19
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.40
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.01
Portability PPG Range0.03
Portability Score-1.48
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.02
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.64
Current Team ELO-38.72
Current Opponent ELO38.72
Current ELO Difference-77.43
Expected score-0.11
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.82
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Bidezarra
D
Bidezarra1–1Aoiz30 Oct · home
Pick: Bidezarra 50% · missed L
Cantolagua1–0Bidezarra25 Oct · away
Pick: Bidezarra 40% · missed L
Bidezarra1–3Mutilvera17 Oct · home
Pick: Bidezarra 36% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Huarte
D
Huarte0–0San Juan7 Nov · home
Pick: San Juan 41% · missed D
Cirbonero1–1Huarte31 Oct · away
Pick: Cirbonero 40% · missed W
Huarte1–0Avance Ezcabarte23 Oct · home
Pick: Huarte 57% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Bidezarra and Huarte meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Bidezarra win 36.6%, draw 28.8%, Huarte win 34.6%. The pick is Bidezarra win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.3%. Both teams to score: 50.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.