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Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Spain Group 15 - 11 2026

Cortes vs Aoiz

Cortes Home · Elo 1,483
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Aoiz Away · Elo 1,455
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cortes win
Cortes winPick
61.4%
Draw
19.4%
Aoiz win
19.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.5%
No48.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.4%
Under 2.546.6%

How much we know

Cortes history54 matches
Aoiz history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.4%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Cortes are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Cortes are rated 29 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,483 against 1,455. On rating alone Cortes would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.19 goals a game over 54 matches for Cortes, against 1.21 over 33 for Aoiz.

  • Cortes concede fewer

    Cortes concede 1.20 a game, Aoiz 1.48.

  • Aoiz games more often go over 2.5 goals

    46% of Cortes matches, against 61% for Aoiz. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cortes
Aoiz@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1483.4
ELO
1454.6
54
ELO · Matches
33
1483.4
Current Team ELO
1454.6
1454.6
Current Opponent ELO
1483.4
28.79
Current ELO Difference
-28.79
0.54
Expected score
0.46
54
History Matches
33
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.07
48.75
Overperformance
45.65
-0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
2.20
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.60
PPG
0.90
0.90
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.70
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.49
Overall performance9 signals
90
54
Matches
33
1.46
PPG
1.00
40.7%
Win rate
24.2%
24.1%
Draw rate
27.3%
35.2%
Loss rate
48.5%
75.9%
Over 1.5 rate
78.8%
46.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.6%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
30.3%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
17
2.04
PPG
0.88
59.3%
Win rate
17.6%
25.9%
Draw rate
35.3%
14.8%
Loss rate
47.1%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
11.1%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.14
27
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.19
Goals for per game
1.21
64.8%
Scoring rate
75.8%
46.3%
BTTS rate
63.6%
1.48
Goals for per game
0.94
77.8%
Scoring rate
64.7%
51.9%
BTTS rate
58.8%
54
History Matches
33
1.19
Goals Mean
1.21
1.12
Goals Std
1.04
64.8%
Scored 1+ rate
75.8%
38.9%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
6.1%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.20
Goals against per game
1.48
68.5%
Conceding rate
75.8%
0.81
Goals against per game
1.41
59.3%
Conceding rate
82.4%
54
History Matches
33
1.20
Conceded Mean
1.48
1.08
Conceded Std
1.08
35.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.5%
14.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.2%
0.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.41
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
31.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
35.2%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
31.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
35.2%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
31.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
54
History Matches
33
0.98
Result entropy
0.95
1.65
Goal Difference Std
1.50
2.04
Stability score
4.53
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
31
11
Lead Matches
7
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.76
13
Trailing Matches
10
15.4%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
31
0.41
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.78
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
189.0
Rest days
189.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
34
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.41
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.94
19
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.47
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.93
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.54
Portability PPG Std
—
1.30
Portability PPG Range
—
48.08
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
54
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO28.79
PPG0.46
GF-0.03
GA-0.28
PPG1.15
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches21
Clean-sheet rate7.2%
Failed-to-score rate10.9%
History Matches10
Clean-sheet rate23.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches21
Goals Mean-0.03
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate5.6%
Scored 3+ rate5.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.54
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.30
History Matches21
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate7.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.02
History Matches21
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.15
Stability score-2.49
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.35
Eligible Matches23
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate19.5%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate7.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches23
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches16
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.47
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.55
Current Team ELO28.79
Current Opponent ELO-28.79
Current ELO Difference57.59
Expected score0.08
History Matches21
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Cortes

D
Cortes1–1Mutilvera31 Oct · home
Pick: Cortes 44% · missed
L
Subiza3–1Cortes25 Oct · away
Pick: Subiza 36% · hit
L
Cortes0–4Beti Onak17 Oct · home
Pick: Cortes 52% · missed
D
Txantrea0–0Cortes8 Oct · away
Pick: Cortes 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Aoiz

D
Bidezarra1–1Aoiz30 Oct · away
Pick: Bidezarra 50% · missed
D
Aoiz1–1San Juan24 Oct · home
Pick: San Juan 45% · missed
L
Cirbonero2–1Aoiz18 Oct · away
Pick: Cirbonero 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Cortes and Aoiz meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Cortes win 61.4%, draw 19.4%, Aoiz win 19.2%. The pick is Cortes win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.4%. Both teams to score: 51.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.