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Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Spain Group 15 - 11 2026

Pamplona vs Avance Ezcabarte

Pamplona Home · Elo 1,614
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Avance Ezcabarte Away · Elo 1,480
Campo de Futbol Beitikuntzea Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pamplona win
Pamplona winPick
68.0%
Draw
19.1%
Avance Ezcabarte win
12.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.3%
No45.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.7%
Under 2.543.3%

How much we know

Pamplona history53 matches
Avance Ezcabarte history34 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (68.0%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Pamplona are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Pamplona are rated 134 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,614 against 1,480. On rating alone Pamplona would be expected to take 68% of the points on offer.

  • Pamplona score more

    1.70 goals a game over 53 matches for Pamplona, against 1.41 over 34 for Avance Ezcabarte.

  • Pamplona concede fewer

    Pamplona concede 0.96 a game, Avance Ezcabarte 1.47.

  • Avance Ezcabarte games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of Pamplona matches, against 62% for Avance Ezcabarte. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Pamplona
Avance Ezcabarte@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1613.8
ELO
1479.5
53
ELO · Matches
34
1613.8
Current Team ELO
1479.5
1479.5
Current Opponent ELO
1613.8
134.3
Current ELO Difference
-134.3
0.68
Expected score
0.32
53
History Matches
34
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.03
57.22
Overperformance
48.03
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
2.80
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
0.90
1.50
Goals for per game
1.40
0.70
Goals against per game
1.90
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.28
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.63
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
34
1.83
PPG
1.32
50.9%
Win rate
35.3%
30.2%
Draw rate
26.5%
18.9%
Loss rate
38.2%
77.4%
Over 1.5 rate
79.4%
49.1%
Over 2.5 rate
61.8%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
17
2.28
PPG
0.88
68.0%
Win rate
23.5%
24.0%
Draw rate
17.6%
8.0%
Loss rate
58.8%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.5%
56.0%
Over 2.5 rate
64.7%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
11.8%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.52
25
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.70
Goals for per game
1.41
83.0%
Scoring rate
82.4%
58.5%
BTTS rate
64.7%
2.08
Goals for per game
0.88
92.0%
Scoring rate
70.6%
60.0%
BTTS rate
58.8%
53
History Matches
34
1.70
Goals Mean
1.41
1.28
Goals Std
1.11
83.0%
Scored 1+ rate
82.4%
50.9%
Scored 2+ rate
32.4%
20.8%
Scored 3+ rate
20.6%
2.08
Venue Goals Mean
0.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.96
Goals against per game
1.47
67.9%
Conceding rate
76.5%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.59
64.0%
Conceding rate
82.4%
53
History Matches
34
0.96
Conceded Mean
1.47
0.85
Conceded Std
1.36
22.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.2%
5.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.6%
0.80
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
17.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
17.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.6%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
8.0%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
32.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
34
0.93
Result entropy
0.99
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.64
7.17
Stability score
1.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
52
Eligible Matches
33
17
Lead Matches
8
70.6%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.75
7
Trailing Matches
10
42.9%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
52
Halftime Coverage Matches
33
0.65
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
1.06
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
146.9
Rest days
91.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
26
Normal Rest History Matches
18
2.23
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
26
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.36
Portability PPG Std
—
0.72
Portability PPG Range
—
58.01
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
34
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO134.3
PPG0.51
GF0.29
GA-0.51
PPG1.40
PPG1.20
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate8.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate18.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches19
Goals Mean0.29
Goals Std0.17
Scored 1+ rate0.7%
Scored 2+ rate18.6%
Scored 3+ rate0.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.08
History Matches19
Conceded Mean-0.51
Conceded Std-0.51
Clean-sheet rate8.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Conceded Mean-0.79
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.50
History Matches19
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.09
Stability score6.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.30
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.30
Eligible Matches19
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate-0.04
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate12.9%
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches19
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.42
Second Half Goals For Mean0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days55.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.84
Long Rest History Matches11
Long Rest Points Per Match0.25
Current Team ELO134.3
Current Opponent ELO-134.3
Current ELO Difference268.6
Expected score0.37
History Matches19
Residual Mean0.13
Overperformance9.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Pamplona

L
Beti Onak1–0Pamplona7 Nov · away
Pick: Pamplona 49% · missed
L
Txantrea5–1Pamplona24 Oct · away
Pick: Pamplona 53% · missed
W
Pamplona1–0Gazte Berriak18 Oct · home
Pick: Pamplona 69% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Avance Ezcabarte

L
Valle Egüés2–1Avance Ezcabarte7 Nov · away
Pick: Valle Egüés 58% · hit
L
Huarte1–0Avance Ezcabarte23 Oct · away
Pick: Huarte 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Pamplona and Avance Ezcabarte meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. The match is played at Campo de Futbol Beitikuntzea. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Pamplona win 68.0%, draw 19.1%, Avance Ezcabarte win 12.9%. The pick is Pamplona win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.7%. Both teams to score: 54.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.