Izarra vs Cantolagua
Match result probability Model pick: Izarra win
Izarra winPick
66.4%
Draw
17.6%
Cantolagua win
16.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes58.6%
No41.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.567.1%
Under 2.532.9%
How much we know
Izarra history53 matches
Cantolagua history14 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Izarra
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.4%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.
Why Izarra are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Izarra are rated 80 Elo points higher
Elo 1,532 against 1,452. On rating alone Izarra would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.
-
Izarra score more
1.45 goals a game over 53 matches for Izarra, against 1.21 over 14 for Cantolagua.
-
Izarra concede fewer
Izarra concede 1.36 a game, Cantolagua 2.29.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
58% of Izarra matches, against 64% for Cantolagua. The model puts this match at 67% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 7 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cantolagua@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1531.6
ELO
1451.5
53
ELO · Matches
14
1531.6
Current Team ELO
1451.5
1451.5
Current Opponent ELO
1531.6
80.02
Current ELO Difference
-80.02
0.61
Expected score
0.39
53
History Matches
14
0.03
Residual Mean
-0.16
52.21
Overperformance
43.49
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
2.20
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.90
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
2.10
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.22
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.37
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.19
Overall performance9 signals 90
53
Matches
14
1.26
PPG
0.71
32.1%
Win rate
14.3%
30.2%
Draw rate
28.6%
37.7%
Loss rate
57.1%
75.5%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
58.5%
Over 2.5 rate
64.3%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.39
Venue performance10 signals 100
26
Matches
6
1.38
PPG
0.83
38.5%
Win rate
16.7%
23.1%
Draw rate
33.3%
38.5%
Loss rate
50.0%
69.2%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
46.2%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
19.2%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
26
History Matches
6
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.45
Goals for per game
1.21
71.7%
Scoring rate
64.3%
54.7%
BTTS rate
64.3%
1.38
Goals for per game
0.83
69.2%
Scoring rate
33.3%
42.3%
BTTS rate
33.3%
53
History Matches
14
1.45
Goals Mean
1.21
1.30
Goals Std
1.21
71.7%
Scored 1+ rate
64.3%
39.6%
Scored 2+ rate
35.7%
24.5%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
0.83
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.36
Goals against per game
2.29
73.6%
Conceding rate
92.9%
1.04
Goals against per game
2.00
65.4%
Conceding rate
83.3%
53
History Matches
14
1.36
Conceded Mean
2.29
1.23
Conceded Std
1.16
39.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
71.4%
11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
50.0%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
26.4%
Clean-sheet rate
7.1%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
26.4%
Clean-sheet rate
7.1%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.7%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
30.8%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
26.4%
Clean-sheet rate
7.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
53
History Matches
14
1.00
Result entropy
0.87
1.90
Goal Difference Std
1.39
0.42
Stability score
13.01
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
53
Eligible Matches
13
12
Lead Matches
1
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
1.00
13
Trailing Matches
7
23.1%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
13
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.15
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.62
0.85
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.23
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
161.0
Rest days
553.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
29
Normal Rest History Matches
6
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.83
23
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.71
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.70
Portability PPG Std
—
1.41
Portability PPG Range
—
41.51
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
53
Clean History Matches
14
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO80.02
PPG0.55
GF0.24
GA-0.93
PPG0.55
PPG0.80
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches39
Clean-sheet rate19.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate17.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.36
History Matches39
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std0.09
Scored 1+ rate7.4%
Scored 2+ rate3.9%
Scored 3+ rate10.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.55
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.26
History Matches39
Conceded Mean-0.93
Conceded Std0.07
Clean-sheet rate19.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.32
Conceded 3+ rate-0.39
Venue Conceded Mean-0.96
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.18
History Matches39
Result entropy0.13
Goal Difference Std0.51
Stability score-12.59
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.19
Eligible Matches40
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.05
Trailing Win Rate7.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches40
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.38
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-392.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches23
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.55
Long Rest History Matches16
Long Rest Points Per Match0.46
Current Team ELO80.02
Current Opponent ELO-80.02
Current ELO Difference160.0
Expected score0.23
History Matches39
Residual Mean0.19
Overperformance8.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Izarra
D
Mutilvera2–2Izarra7 Nov · away
Pick: Izarra 39% · missed W
Izarra2–0Subiza31 Oct · home
Pick: Izarra 50% · hit W
Beti Onak1–4Izarra24 Oct · away
Pick: Izarra 41% · hit D
Izarra0–0Txantrea18 Oct · home
Pick: Izarra 57% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Cantolagua
W
Beti Kozkor0–1Cantolagua31 Oct · away
Pick: Beti Kozkor 67% · missed W
Cantolagua1–0Bidezarra25 Oct · home
Pick: Bidezarra 40% · missed L
San Juan4–0Cantolagua18 Oct · away
Pick: San Juan 68% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Izarra and Cantolagua meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Izarra win 66.4%, draw 17.6%, Cantolagua win 16.0%. The pick is Izarra win. Over 2.5 goals: 67.1%. Both teams to score: 58.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.