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Oberliga - Bremen Germany Bremen - 14 2026

Brinkumer SV vs Oberneuland

Brinkumer SV Home · Elo 1,551
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Oberneuland Away · Elo 1,473
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Brinkumer SV win
Brinkumer SV winPick
66.1%
Draw
17.1%
Oberneuland win
16.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes67.2%
No32.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.579.8%
Under 2.520.2%

How much we know

Brinkumer SV history47 matches
Oberneuland history44 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (66.1%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Brinkumer SV are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Brinkumer SV are rated 77 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,551 against 1,473. On rating alone Brinkumer SV would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Brinkumer SV score more

    2.72 goals a game over 47 matches for Brinkumer SV, against 2.32 over 44 for Oberneuland.

  • Defences are close

    Brinkumer SV concede 1.96 a game, Oberneuland 2.07.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    87% of Brinkumer SV matches, against 86% for Oberneuland. The model puts this match at 80% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Brinkumer SV
Oberneuland@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1550.6
ELO
1473.1
47
ELO · Matches
44
1550.6
Current Team ELO
1473.1
1473.1
Current Opponent ELO
1550.6
77.44
Current ELO Difference
-77.44
0.61
Expected score
0.39
47
History Matches
44
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.03
54.17
Overperformance
47.81
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.00
3.40
Goals for per game
2.20
1.60
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.60
2.90
Goals for per game
1.80
2.30
Goals against per game
2.80
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
2.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
2.74
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.80
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.17
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
3.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
44
1.64
PPG
1.36
48.9%
Win rate
38.6%
17.0%
Draw rate
20.5%
34.0%
Loss rate
40.9%
95.7%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
87.2%
Over 2.5 rate
86.4%
68.1%
Over 3.5 rate
68.2%
3.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.96
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
22
1.80
PPG
0.77
56.0%
Win rate
18.2%
12.0%
Draw rate
22.7%
32.0%
Loss rate
59.1%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
84.0%
Over 2.5 rate
90.9%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
63.6%
3.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.56
25
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.72
Goals for per game
2.32
80.9%
Scoring rate
84.1%
59.6%
BTTS rate
68.2%
2.68
Goals for per game
1.68
80.0%
Scoring rate
81.8%
48.0%
BTTS rate
68.2%
4.33
Goals for per game
2.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
47
History Matches
44
2.72
Goals Mean
2.32
2.18
Goals Std
1.95
80.9%
Scored 1+ rate
84.1%
68.1%
Scored 2+ rate
63.6%
53.2%
Scored 3+ rate
36.4%
2.68
Venue Goals Mean
1.68
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.96
Goals against per game
2.07
74.5%
Conceding rate
79.5%
1.84
Goals against per game
2.55
68.0%
Conceding rate
77.3%
1.33
Goals against per game
3.00
33.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
47
History Matches
44
1.96
Conceded Mean
2.07
1.82
Conceded Std
1.67
55.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
61.4%
31.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
34.1%
1.84
Venue Conceded Mean
2.55
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
19.1%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
19.1%
Failed-to-score rate
15.9%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
44
0.93
Result entropy
0.96
3.20
Goal Difference Std
2.96
7.34
Stability score
3.73
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
43
16
Lead Matches
16
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.85
14
Trailing Matches
17
7.1%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
1.04
First Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.84
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
1.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.30
1.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.23
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.85
Rest days
92.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
24
Normal Rest History Matches
20
1.58
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
22
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.45
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
2.00
PPG
0.50
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
5.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
3
Current Competition Matches
2
2.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.25
Portability PPG Std
0.26
0.62
Portability PPG Range
0.53
66.34
Portability Score
65.45
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
44
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO77.44
PPG0.27
GF0.41
GA-0.11
PPG1.50
PPG1.03
PPG0.80
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Failed-to-score rate3.2%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate9.3%
Failed-to-score rate1.8%
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.41
Goals Std0.23
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate4.4%
Scored 3+ rate16.8%
Venue Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std1.49
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std0.15
Clean-sheet rate5.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.71
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.84
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.25
Stability score3.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.76
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.00
First Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Second Half Goals For Mean0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range0.09
Portability Score0.89
Rest days-7.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.08
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.28
Current Team ELO77.44
Current Opponent ELO-77.44
Current ELO Difference154.9
Expected score0.22
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Brinkumer SV

L
Leher TS4–0Brinkumer SV1 Nov · away
Pick: Brinkumer SV 67% · missed
W
BTS Neustadt3–4Brinkumer SV17 Oct · away
Pick: Brinkumer SV 58% · hit
W
Aumund-Vegesack2–3Brinkumer SV29 Aug · away
Pick: Brinkumer SV 58% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Oberneuland

L
Oberneuland0–2Leher TS6 Nov · home
Pick: Oberneuland 54% · missed
L
Grohn4–2Oberneuland1 Nov · away
Pick: Oberneuland 44% · missed
L
Oberneuland0–2BTS Neustadt23 Oct · home
Pick: Oberneuland 61% · missed
W
Werder Bremen III3–4Oberneuland18 Oct · away
Pick: Oberneuland 43% · hit
D
Eiche Horn1–1Oberneuland30 Aug · away
Pick: Eiche Horn 60% · missed

About this match

Brinkumer SV and Oberneuland meet in Oberliga - Bremen on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Brinkumer SV win 66.1%, draw 17.1%, Oberneuland win 16.8%. The pick is Brinkumer SV win. Over 2.5 goals: 79.8%. Both teams to score: 67.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.