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Oberliga - Bremen Germany Bremen - 14 2026

Leher TS vs Union Bremen

Leher TS Home · Elo 1,421
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Union Bremen Away · Elo 1,512
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Union Bremen win
Leher TS win
20.6%
Draw
19.8%
Union Bremen winPick
59.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.1%
No36.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.571.9%
Under 2.528.1%

How much we know

Leher TS history31 matches
Union Bremen history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.5%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Union Bremen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Union Bremen are rated 91 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,512 against 1,421. On rating alone Union Bremen would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Union Bremen score far more

    1.61 goals a game over 31 matches for Leher TS, against 2.62 over 47 for Union Bremen.

  • Defences are close

    Leher TS concede 2.06 a game, Union Bremen 2.17.

  • Union Bremen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    74% of Leher TS matches, against 87% for Union Bremen. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Leher TS
Union Bremen@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1421.3
ELO
1511.8
31
ELO · Matches
47
1421.3
Current Team ELO
1511.8
1511.8
Current Opponent ELO
1421.3
-90.51
Current ELO Difference
90.51
0.37
Expected score
0.63
31
History Matches
47
-0.12
Residual Mean
0.01
42.50
Overperformance
50.72
-0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
2.60
1.80
Goals against per game
2.60
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
1.00
1.30
Goals for per game
2.50
2.10
Goals against per game
2.80
10.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.29
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.80
0.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.54
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
31
Matches
47
1.00
PPG
1.47
29.0%
Win rate
44.7%
12.9%
Draw rate
12.8%
58.1%
Loss rate
42.6%
87.1%
Over 1.5 rate
95.7%
74.2%
Over 2.5 rate
87.2%
48.4%
Over 3.5 rate
66.0%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.97
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
24
0.75
PPG
1.58
18.8%
Win rate
50.0%
18.8%
Draw rate
8.3%
62.5%
Loss rate
41.7%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
95.8%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
87.5%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
2.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.31
16
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.61
Goals for per game
2.62
64.5%
Scoring rate
85.1%
51.6%
BTTS rate
74.5%
1.19
Goals for per game
2.88
62.5%
Scoring rate
79.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
0.33
Goals for per game
3.00
33.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
31
History Matches
47
1.61
Goals Mean
2.62
1.75
Goals Std
2.28
64.5%
Scored 1+ rate
85.1%
38.7%
Scored 2+ rate
59.6%
25.8%
Scored 3+ rate
40.4%
1.19
Venue Goals Mean
2.88
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.06
Goals against per game
2.17
80.6%
Conceding rate
89.4%
2.19
Goals against per game
2.17
75.0%
Conceding rate
87.5%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
31
History Matches
47
2.06
Conceded Mean
2.17
1.46
Conceded Std
1.36
67.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
66.0%
35.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
38.3%
2.19
Venue Conceded Mean
2.17
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
10.6%
35.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
66.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
10.6%
35.5%
Failed-to-score rate
14.9%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
19.4%
Clean-sheet rate
10.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
31
History Matches
47
0.85
Result entropy
0.90
2.49
Goal Difference Std
2.97
14.54
Stability score
10.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
30
Eligible Matches
47
9
Lead Matches
23
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
82.6%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.87
14
Trailing Matches
12
14.3%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
30
Halftime Coverage Matches
47
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
1.34
0.93
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.28
1.07
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.32
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.81
Rest days
84.08
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
13
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.25
15
Long Rest History Matches
21
0.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.71
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
1.67
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.67
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.33
2
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.23
1.11
Portability PPG Range
0.51
47.46
Portability Score
68.71
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
31
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-90.51
PPG-0.47
GF-1.00
GA-0.11
PPG-1.67
PPG-0.83
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate8.7%
Failed-to-score rate20.6%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate12.5%
Failed-to-score rate16.7%
History Matches-16
Goals Mean-1.00
Goals Std-0.53
Scored 1+ rate-0.21
Scored 2+ rate-0.21
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-1.69
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.87
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std0.10
Clean-sheet rate8.7%
Conceded 2+ rate1.8%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.42
History Matches-16
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.48
Stability score4.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.56
Eligible Matches-17
Lead Matches-14
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.02
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-17
First Half Goals For Mean-0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.41
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.67
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.33
Portability PPG Range0.59
Portability Score-21.26
Rest days0.73
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.13
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.91
Current Team ELO-90.51
Current Opponent ELO90.51
Current ELO Difference-181.0
Expected score-0.25
History Matches-16
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-8.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Leher TS

W
Oberneuland0–2Leher TS6 Nov · away
Pick: Oberneuland 54% · missed
W
Leher TS4–0Brinkumer SV1 Nov · home
Pick: Brinkumer SV 67% · missed
W
Schwachhausen1–3Leher TS25 Oct · away
Pick: Schwachhausen 41% · missed
W
Grohn1–9Leher TS18 Oct · away
Pick: Leher TS 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Union Bremen

W
Union Bremen4–1Grohn7 Nov · home
Pick: Union Bremen 75% · hit
L
BTS Neustadt3–2Union Bremen31 Oct · away
Pick: Union Bremen 58% · missed
D
Union Bremen2–2Werder Bremen III24 Oct · home
Pick: Union Bremen 68% · missed
L
Geestemünde4–1Union Bremen18 Oct · away
Pick: Union Bremen 54% · missed
L
Hemelingen6–1Union Bremen30 Aug · away
Pick: Hemelingen 76% · hit

About this match

Leher TS and Union Bremen meet in Oberliga - Bremen on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Leher TS win 20.6%, draw 19.8%, Union Bremen win 59.5%. The pick is Union Bremen win. Over 2.5 goals: 71.9%. Both teams to score: 63.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.