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Oberliga - Bremen Germany Bremen - 14 2026

BTS Neustadt vs Hemelingen

BTS Neustadt Home · Elo 1,496
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hemelingen Away · Elo 1,641
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hemelingen win
BTS Neustadt win
15.3%
Draw
12.1%
Hemelingen winPick
72.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes66.8%
No33.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.584.1%
Under 2.515.9%

How much we know

BTS Neustadt history44 matches
Hemelingen history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (72.6%). Picks in that band won 76.5% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 646 matches.

Why Hemelingen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hemelingen are rated 145 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,641 against 1,496. On rating alone Hemelingen would be expected to take 70% of the points on offer.

  • Hemelingen score more

    2.86 goals a game over 44 matches for BTS Neustadt, against 3.29 over 52 for Hemelingen.

  • Hemelingen concede fewer

    BTS Neustadt concede 2.75 a game, Hemelingen 1.50.

  • BTS Neustadt games more often go over 2.5 goals

    98% of BTS Neustadt matches, against 85% for Hemelingen. The model puts this match at 84% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
BTS Neustadt
Hemelingen@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1495.8
ELO
1641.0
44
ELO · Matches
52
1495.8
Current Team ELO
1641.0
1641.0
Current Opponent ELO
1495.8
-145.2
Current ELO Difference
145.2
0.30
Expected score
0.70
44
History Matches
52
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.13
49.35
Overperformance
59.25
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
3.60
Goals for per game
3.00
4.00
Goals against per game
2.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
2.40
3.00
Goals for per game
3.70
3.10
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
80.0%
3.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.70
2.32
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.19
3.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.62
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
3.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.88
Overall performance9 signals
90
44
Matches
52
1.43
PPG
2.19
45.5%
Win rate
69.2%
6.8%
Draw rate
11.5%
47.7%
Loss rate
19.2%
97.7%
Over 1.5 rate
94.2%
97.7%
Over 2.5 rate
84.6%
81.8%
Over 3.5 rate
69.2%
3.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.61
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
27
1.62
PPG
2.04
52.4%
Win rate
63.0%
4.8%
Draw rate
14.8%
42.9%
Loss rate
22.2%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
96.3%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
92.6%
85.7%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
3.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.35
21
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.86
Goals for per game
3.29
86.4%
Scoring rate
92.3%
84.1%
BTTS rate
57.7%
3.38
Goals for per game
3.44
95.2%
Scoring rate
92.6%
90.5%
BTTS rate
63.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
3.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
0.0%
44
History Matches
52
2.86
Goals Mean
3.29
2.24
Goals Std
2.36
86.4%
Scored 1+ rate
92.3%
72.7%
Scored 2+ rate
73.1%
50.0%
Scored 3+ rate
55.8%
3.38
Venue Goals Mean
3.44
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.75
Goals against per game
1.50
97.7%
Conceding rate
63.5%
2.62
Goals against per game
1.41
95.2%
Conceding rate
66.7%
5.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
44
History Matches
52
2.75
Conceded Mean
1.50
1.63
Conceded Std
2.00
72.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.5%
52.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.3%
2.62
Venue Conceded Mean
1.41
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
2.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
7.7%
4.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
4.8%
Failed-to-score rate
7.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
2.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
13.6%
Failed-to-score rate
7.7%
4.8%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
4.8%
Failed-to-score rate
7.4%
2.3%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
44
History Matches
52
0.81
Result entropy
0.75
3.19
Goal Difference Std
3.61
18.58
Stability score
25.29
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
52
16
Lead Matches
26
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
96.2%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.97
14
Trailing Matches
10
14.3%
Non-loss rate
30.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
1.20
First Half Goals For Mean
1.35
1.16
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
1.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.94
1.59
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.87
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
83.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
23
1.61
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.39
19
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.37
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.92
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
3
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.00
3
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.71
Portability PPG Std
1.16
1.68
Portability PPG Range
2.75
41.33
Portability Score
30.14
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
44
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-145.2
PPG-0.76
GF-0.42
GA1.25
PPG-3.00
PPG-0.42
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.34
Failed-to-score rate5.9%
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.29
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-8
Goals Mean-0.42
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate0.00
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.13
History Matches-8
Conceded Mean1.25
Conceded Std-0.38
Clean-sheet rate-0.34
Conceded 2+ rate36.2%
Conceded 3+ rate35.0%
Venue Conceded Mean1.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.80
History Matches-8
Result entropy0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.41
Stability score-6.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.87
Eligible Matches-8
Lead Matches-10
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches4
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches-8
First Half Goals For Mean-0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean0.52
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.73
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-6.00
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.45
Portability PPG Range-1.07
Portability Score11.19
Rest days0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.78
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.55
Current Team ELO-145.2
Current Opponent ELO145.2
Current ELO Difference-290.4
Expected score-0.40
History Matches-8
Residual Mean-0.14
Overperformance-9.90
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

BTS Neustadt

W
Woltmershausen1–4BTS Neustadt7 Nov · away
Pick: Woltmershausen 49% · missed
W
BTS Neustadt3–2Union Bremen31 Oct · home
Pick: Union Bremen 58% · missed
W
Oberneuland0–2BTS Neustadt23 Oct · away
Pick: Oberneuland 61% · missed
L
BTS Neustadt3–4Brinkumer SV17 Oct · home
Pick: Brinkumer SV 58% · hit
L
Blumenthaler SV1–0BTS Neustadt29 Aug · away
Pick: Blumenthaler SV 81% · hit

Hemelingen

W
Geestemünde0–4Hemelingen1 Nov · away
Pick: Hemelingen 76% · hit
W
Hemelingen1–0Blumenthaler SV25 Oct · home
Pick: Hemelingen 43% · hit
W
Vatan Sport0–6Hemelingen17 Oct · away
Pick: Hemelingen 59% · hit
W
Hemelingen6–1Union Bremen30 Aug · home
Pick: Hemelingen 76% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

BTS Neustadt and Hemelingen meet in Oberliga - Bremen on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: BTS Neustadt win 15.3%, draw 12.1%, Hemelingen win 72.6%. The pick is Hemelingen win. Over 2.5 goals: 84.1%. Both teams to score: 66.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.