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Oberliga - Bremen Germany Bremen - 14 2026

Vatan Sport vs Schwachhausen

Vatan Sport Home · Elo 1,453
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Schwachhausen Away · Elo 1,492
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Vatan Sport win
Vatan Sport winPick
69.9%
Draw
11.0%
Schwachhausen win
19.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes66.2%
No33.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.584.0%
Under 2.516.0%

How much we know

Vatan Sport history45 matches
Schwachhausen history3 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (69.9%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Vatan Sport are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Schwachhausen are rated 39 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,492 against 1,453. On rating alone Schwachhausen would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Vatan Sport score more

    2.07 goals a game over 45 matches for Vatan Sport, against 1.67 over 3 for Schwachhausen.

  • Defences are close

    Vatan Sport concede 3.09 a game, Schwachhausen 3.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    96% of Vatan Sport matches, against 100% for Schwachhausen. The model puts this match at 84% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Vatan Sport
Schwachhausen@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1453.2
ELO
1492.2
45
ELO · Matches
3
1453.2
Current Team ELO
1492.2
1492.2
Current Opponent ELO
1453.2
-39.01
Current ELO Difference
39.01
0.44
Expected score
0.56
45
History Matches
3
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.09
46.42
Overperformance
48.81
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
3
1.40
PPG
1.00
3.60
Goals for per game
1.67
3.40
Goals against per game
3.00
40.0%
Win rate
33.3%
10
Matches
3
1.40
PPG
1.00
2.80
Goals for per game
1.67
2.60
Goals against per game
3.00
40.0%
Win rate
33.3%
2.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.67
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.25
2.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.00
1.85
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.82
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
2.86
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
45
Matches
3
1.11
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
11.1%
Draw rate
0.0%
55.6%
Loss rate
66.7%
97.8%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
95.6%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
80.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
2.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
1
1.59
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
9.1%
Draw rate
0.0%
40.9%
Loss rate
100.0%
95.5%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
95.5%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
77.3%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
3.28
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
22
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.07
Goals for per game
1.67
82.2%
Scoring rate
66.7%
77.8%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2.09
Goals for per game
2.00
77.3%
Scoring rate
100.0%
72.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
4.67
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
45
History Matches
3
2.07
Goals Mean
1.67
1.53
Goals Std
1.25
82.2%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
62.2%
Scored 2+ rate
66.7%
35.6%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
2.09
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
3.09
Goals against per game
3.00
95.6%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.82
Goals against per game
3.00
95.5%
Conceding rate
100.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
3.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
45
History Matches
3
3.09
Conceded Mean
3.00
1.95
Conceded Std
0.82
77.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
100.0%
60.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
66.7%
2.82
Venue Conceded Mean
3.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
4.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
17.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
4.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
4.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
17.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
4.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
22.7%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
4.4%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
45
History Matches
3
0.85
Result entropy
0.58
2.96
Goal Difference Std
2.05
14.72
Stability score
42.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
3
16
Lead Matches
1
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
1.00
20
Trailing Matches
2
20.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
3
1.11
First Half Goals For Mean
1.33
1.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.67
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.33
1.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.33
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.13
Rest days
83.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
22
Normal Rest History Matches
1
0.73
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.00
21
Long Rest History Matches
1
1.62
Long Rest Points Per Match
3.00
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
1.00
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
1.00
2.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
3
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.60
Portability PPG Std
—
1.37
Portability PPG Range
—
45.34
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
45
Clean History Matches
3
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-39.01
PPG0.11
GF0.40
GA0.09
PPG1.33
PPG1.59
PPG0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches42
Clean-sheet rate4.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches21
Clean-sheet rate4.5%
Failed-to-score rate22.7%
History Matches42
Goals Mean0.40
Goals Std0.28
Scored 1+ rate15.6%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate2.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.09
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.13
Recent 10 Goals Std0.29
History Matches42
Conceded Mean0.09
Conceded Std1.14
Clean-sheet rate4.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.22
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.04
History Matches42
Result entropy0.27
Goal Difference Std0.91
Stability score-27.34
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.80
Eligible Matches42
Lead Matches15
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.23
Trailing Matches18
Non-loss rate20.0%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches42
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean4.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches21
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.73
Long Rest History Matches20
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.38
Current Team ELO-39.01
Current Opponent ELO39.01
Current ELO Difference-78.03
Expected score-0.11
History Matches42
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance-2.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Vatan Sport

D
OSC Bremerhaven1–1Vatan Sport6 Nov · away
Pick: OSC Bremerhaven 69% · missed
L
Vatan Sport3–4Aumund-Vegesack1 Nov · home
Pick: Vatan Sport 55% · missed
W
Eiche Horn2–3Vatan Sport25 Oct · away
Pick: Eiche Horn 45% · missed
L
Vatan Sport0–6Hemelingen17 Oct · home
Pick: Hemelingen 59% · hit
L
Vatan Sport2–3Grohn30 Aug · home
Pick: Vatan Sport 74% · missed

Schwachhausen

L
OSC Bremerhaven5–0Schwachhausen30 Oct · away
Pick: OSC Bremerhaven 82% · hit
L
Schwachhausen1–3Leher TS25 Oct · home
Pick: Schwachhausen 41% · missed
D
Aumund-Vegesack3–3Schwachhausen17 Oct · away
Pick: Aumund-Vegesack 69% · missed
W
Woltmershausen0–2Schwachhausen29 Aug · away
Pick: Woltmershausen 54% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Vatan Sport and Schwachhausen meet in Oberliga - Bremen on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Vatan Sport win 69.9%, draw 11.0%, Schwachhausen win 19.0%. The pick is Vatan Sport win. Over 2.5 goals: 84.0%. Both teams to score: 66.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.