ScoreProb
UEFA Nations League World League C - 5 2026

Luxembourg vs Estonia

Luxembourg Home · Elo 1,457
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Estonia Away · Elo 1,470
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Luxembourg win
Luxembourg winPick
42.5%
Draw
28.0%
Estonia win
29.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.5%
No50.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.550.4%
Under 2.549.6%

How much we know

Luxembourg history14 matches
Estonia history13 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.

Why Luxembourg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,457 against 1,470. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Estonia score far more

    0.64 goals a game over 14 matches for Luxembourg, against 1.08 over 13 for Estonia.

  • Luxembourg concede fewer

    Luxembourg concede 1.29 a game, Estonia 2.00.

  • Estonia games more often go over 2.5 goals

    29% of Luxembourg matches, against 54% for Estonia. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 6 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Luxembourg
Estonia@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1457.4
ELO
1470.4
14
ELO · Matches
13
1457.4
Current Team ELO
1470.4
1470.4
Current Opponent ELO
1457.4
-13.03
Current ELO Difference
13.03
0.48
Expected score
0.52
14
History Matches
13
-0.14
Residual Mean
-0.12
44.33
Overperformance
45.30
-0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
0.40
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.90
0.70
Goals for per game
0.90
1.40
Goals against per game
1.90
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.58
0.56
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
14
Matches
13
0.93
PPG
0.92
28.6%
Win rate
23.1%
7.1%
Draw rate
23.1%
64.3%
Loss rate
53.8%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
76.9%
28.6%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
46.2%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
Venue performance10 signals
100
8
Matches
7
0.88
PPG
1.00
25.0%
Win rate
28.6%
12.5%
Draw rate
14.3%
62.5%
Loss rate
57.1%
37.5%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
12.5%
Over 3.5 rate
57.1%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
8
History Matches
7
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.64
Goals for per game
1.08
42.9%
Scoring rate
69.2%
14.3%
BTTS rate
61.5%
0.63
Goals for per game
1.43
37.5%
Scoring rate
71.4%
12.5%
BTTS rate
71.4%
14
History Matches
13
0.64
Goals Mean
1.08
0.89
Goals Std
1.14
42.9%
Scored 1+ rate
69.2%
14.3%
Scored 2+ rate
15.4%
7.1%
Scored 3+ rate
15.4%
0.63
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.29
Goals against per game
2.00
64.3%
Conceding rate
84.6%
1.00
Goals against per game
2.57
62.5%
Conceding rate
100.0%
14
History Matches
13
1.29
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.28
Conceded Std
1.41
35.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
61.5%
21.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.8%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
2.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
57.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
62.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
57.1%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
62.5%
Failed-to-score rate
28.6%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
15.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
14
History Matches
13
0.76
Result entropy
0.92
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.82
24.41
Stability score
8.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
14
Eligible Matches
13
3
Lead Matches
3
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
33.3%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.56
4
Trailing Matches
2
0.0%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
14
Halftime Coverage Matches
13
0.29
First Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.46
0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.54
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.54
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
160.1
Rest days
160.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
3
Normal Rest History Matches
3
1.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
6
Long Rest History Matches
6
0.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.50
Portability PPG Std
—
1.00
Portability PPG Range
—
50.00
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
14
Clean History Matches
13
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-13.03
PPG0.01
GF-0.43
GA-0.71
PPG-0.13
PPG0.40
PPG0.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate20.3%
Failed-to-score rate26.4%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate37.5%
Failed-to-score rate33.9%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.43
Goals Std-0.25
Scored 1+ rate-0.26
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.13
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.71
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate20.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.26
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-1.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.30
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.16
Goal Difference Std-0.02
Stability score16.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.05
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate66.7%
Lead Points Retention0.44
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.82
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.00
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO-13.03
Current Opponent ELO13.03
Current ELO Difference-26.05
Expected score-0.04
History Matches1
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-0.97
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.04

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Luxembourg

L
Luxembourg0–2Bulgaria6 Oct · home
Pick: Luxembourg 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Estonia

D
Estonia0–0Iceland6 Oct · home
Pick: Iceland 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Luxembourg and Estonia meet in UEFA Nations League on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Luxembourg win 42.5%, draw 28.0%, Estonia win 29.5%. The pick is Luxembourg win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.4%. Both teams to score: 49.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.