Newtown AFC vs Caerphilly Athletic
Match result probability Model pick: Newtown AFC win
Newtown AFC winPick
70.3%
Draw
15.2%
Caerphilly Athletic win
14.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes47.6%
No52.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.568.4%
Under 2.531.6%
How much we know
Newtown AFC history46 matches
Caerphilly Athletic history5 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Newtown AFC
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 13:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (70.3%). Picks in that band won 76.5% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 646 matches.
Why Newtown AFC are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,502 against 1,478. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Newtown AFC score far more
1.67 goals a game over 46 matches for Newtown AFC, against 0.60 over 5 for Caerphilly Athletic.
-
Newtown AFC concede fewer
Newtown AFC concede 1.72 a game, Caerphilly Athletic 2.00.
-
Caerphilly Athletic games more often go over 2.5 goals
65% of Newtown AFC matches, against 80% for Caerphilly Athletic. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Caerphilly Athletic@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1502.3
ELO
1477.7
46
ELO · Matches
5
1502.3
Current Team ELO
1477.7
1477.7
Current Opponent ELO
1502.3
24.59
Current ELO Difference
-24.59
0.54
Expected score
0.46
46
History Matches
5
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.20
50.42
Overperformance
45.91
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
2.60
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
5
1.30
PPG
0.80
2.00
Goals for per game
0.60
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
2.05
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.26
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
3.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals 90
46
Matches
5
1.41
PPG
0.80
41.3%
Win rate
20.0%
17.4%
Draw rate
20.0%
41.3%
Loss rate
60.0%
87.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
65.2%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
39.1%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
Venue performance10 signals 100
24
Matches
2
1.38
PPG
0.00
37.5%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
37.5%
Loss rate
100.0%
95.8%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
70.8%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
45.8%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.00
24
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.67
Goals for per game
0.60
73.9%
Scoring rate
40.0%
56.5%
BTTS rate
40.0%
1.96
Goals for per game
0.00
83.3%
Scoring rate
0.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
0.0%
46
History Matches
5
1.67
Goals Mean
0.60
1.50
Goals Std
0.80
73.9%
Scored 1+ rate
40.0%
47.8%
Scored 2+ rate
20.0%
26.1%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
1.96
Venue Goals Mean
0.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.72
Goals against per game
2.00
82.6%
Conceding rate
80.0%
1.79
Goals against per game
3.00
83.3%
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
5
1.72
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.42
Conceded Std
1.26
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.0%
19.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
60.0%
1.79
Venue Conceded Mean
3.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
26.1%
Failed-to-score rate
60.0%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
46
History Matches
5
0.94
Result entropy
0.86
2.32
Goal Difference Std
1.62
5.82
Stability score
13.50
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
46
Eligible Matches
5
13
Lead Matches
1
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
1.00
17
Trailing Matches
3
11.8%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
5
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.20
0.83
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.96
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.89
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
91.02
Rest days
84.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
24
Normal Rest History Matches
2
1.25
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
18
Long Rest History Matches
2
1.61
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
2
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.60
Portability PPG Std
—
1.67
Portability PPG Range
—
45.58
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
46
Clean History Matches
5
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO24.59
PPG0.61
GF1.07
GA-0.28
PPG1.38
PPG1.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches41
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.34
History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate16.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.83
History Matches41
Goals Mean1.07
Goals Std0.70
Scored 1+ rate33.9%
Scored 2+ rate27.8%
Scored 3+ rate26.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.96
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std1.25
History Matches41
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.40
Venue Conceded Mean-1.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.34
History Matches41
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std0.70
Stability score-7.68
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.62
Eligible Matches41
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches14
Non-loss rate11.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches41
First Half Goals For Mean0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.56
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Rest days7.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest History Matches22
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.75
Long Rest History Matches16
Long Rest Points Per Match1.61
Current Team ELO24.59
Current Opponent ELO-24.59
Current ELO Difference49.17
Expected score0.07
History Matches41
Residual Mean0.21
Overperformance4.51
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.17
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Newtown AFC
W
Ruthin Town0–2Newtown AFC6 Nov · away
Pick: Newtown AFC 57% · hit W
Newtown AFC2–0Buckley Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Newtown AFC 66% · hit D
Rhyl2–2Newtown AFC24 Oct · away
Pick: Newtown AFC 44% · missed W
Newtown AFC7–0Llanuwchllyn17 Oct · home
Pick: Newtown AFC 80% · hit W
Bala Town0–1Newtown AFC31 Aug · away
Pick: Bala Town 38% · missed Caerphilly Athletic
L
Afan Lido3–2Caerphilly Athletic6 Nov · away
Pick: Afan Lido 68% · hit L
Caerphilly Athletic0–1Caerau (Ely)30 Oct · home
Pick: Caerau (Ely) 47% · hit W
Carmarthen Town1–3Caerphilly Athletic23 Oct · away
Pick: Carmarthen Town 76% · missed W
Caerphilly Athletic1–0Chepstow Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Caerphilly Athletic 55% · hit W
Baglan Dragons0–1Caerphilly Athletic31 Aug · away
Pick: Baglan Dragons 64% · missed About this match
Newtown AFC and Caerphilly Athletic meet in Welsh Cup on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Latham Park, Newtown. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Newtown AFC win 70.3%, draw 15.2%, Caerphilly Athletic win 14.5%. The pick is Newtown AFC win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.4%. Both teams to score: 47.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.