China vs Malaysia
Match result probability Model pick: Malaysia win
China win
32.5%
Draw
31.6%
Malaysia winPick
35.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes43.9%
No56.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.537.3%
Under 2.562.7%
How much we know
China history12 matches
Malaysia history16 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Malaysia
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.9%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Malaysia are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Malaysia are rated 49 Elo points higher
Elo 1,539 against 1,491. On rating alone Malaysia would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
-
Malaysia score far more
0.67 goals a game over 12 matches for China, against 1.69 over 16 for Malaysia.
-
Malaysia concede fewer
China concede 1.17 a game, Malaysia 1.00.
-
Malaysia games more often go over 2.5 goals
25% of China matches, against 50% for Malaysia. The model puts this match at 37% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Malaysia@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1490.7
ELO
1539.3
12
ELO · Matches
16
1490.7
Current Team ELO
1539.3
1539.3
Current Opponent ELO
1490.7
-48.59
Current ELO Difference
48.59
0.43
Expected score
0.57
12
History Matches
16
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.15
48.61
Overperformance
56.47
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.70
1.10
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.68
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.37
Overall performance9 signals 90
12
Matches
16
1.17
PPG
1.94
33.3%
Win rate
62.5%
16.7%
Draw rate
6.3%
50.0%
Loss rate
31.3%
58.3%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
8.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
Venue performance10 signals 100
6
Matches
6
1.67
PPG
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
16.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.7%
1.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
6
History Matches
6
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
0.67
Goals for per game
1.69
41.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
16.7%
BTTS rate
31.3%
0.67
Goals for per game
1.17
50.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
0.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.33
Goals for per game
—
66.7%
Scoring rate
—
66.7%
BTTS rate
—
12
History Matches
16
0.67
Goals Mean
1.69
0.85
Goals Std
1.53
41.7%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
25.0%
Scored 2+ rate
43.8%
0.0%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
0.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.17
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.17
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
56.3%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.33
33.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
—
66.7%
Conceding rate
—
12
History Matches
16
1.17
Conceded Mean
1.00
0.99
Conceded Std
1.06
41.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.3%
8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
0.67
Venue Conceded Mean
1.33
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
58.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
—
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
—
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
58.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
66.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
43.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
12
History Matches
16
0.92
Result entropy
0.76
1.50
Goal Difference Std
2.28
7.94
Stability score
24.40
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
12
Eligible Matches
16
4
Lead Matches
5
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
1.00
5
Trailing Matches
7
0.0%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
28.6%
Goal timing5 signals 50
12
Halftime Coverage Matches
16
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.31
0.67
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.38
0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
158.0
Rest days
86.96
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
5
Normal Rest History Matches
6
0.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.00
5
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.40
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
0
1.67
PPG
—
33.3%
Win rate
—
66.7%
Draw rate
—
0.0%
Loss rate
—
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
—
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
—
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
—
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
3
Current Competition Matches
0
1.67
Current Competition PPG
—
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.42
0.92
Portability PPG Range
1.00
56.38
Portability Score
54.06
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
12
Clean History Matches
16
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-48.59
PPG-0.77
GF-1.02
GA0.17
PPG0.17
PPG0.40
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate33.3%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate33.3%
Failed-to-score rate16.7%
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-1.02
Goals Std-0.68
Scored 1+ rate-0.33
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.25
Venue Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.80
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean0.17
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate10.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.00
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.16
Goal Difference Std-0.78
Stability score-16.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.82
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.43
Trailing Win Rate-0.29
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-1.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches3
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.08
Portability Score2.32
Rest days71.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.20
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.60
Current Team ELO-48.59
Current Opponent ELO48.59
Current ELO Difference-97.19
Expected score-0.14
History Matches-4
Residual Mean-0.18
Overperformance-7.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
About this match
China and Malaysia meet in Friendlies on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Tianhe Stadium, Guangzhou. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: China win 32.5%, draw 31.6%, Malaysia win 35.9%. The pick is Malaysia win. Over 2.5 goals: 37.3%. Both teams to score: 43.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.