Chorley vs Buxton
Match result probability Model pick: Buxton win
Chorley win
28.6%
Draw
26.4%
Buxton winPick
45.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes57.2%
No42.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.9%
Under 2.544.1%
How much we know
Chorley history80 matches
Buxton history86 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Buxton
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.0%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Buxton are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Buxton are rated 103 Elo points higher
Elo 1,576 against 1,472. On rating alone Buxton would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.
-
Buxton score more
1.55 goals a game over 80 matches for Chorley, against 1.77 over 86 for Buxton.
-
Buxton concede fewer
Chorley concede 1.39 a game, Buxton 1.24.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
59% of Chorley matches, against 63% for Buxton. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Buxton@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1472.2
ELO
1575.6
80
ELO · Matches
86
1472.2
Current Team ELO
1575.6
1575.6
Current Opponent ELO
1472.2
-103.4
Current ELO Difference
103.4
0.36
Expected score
0.64
80
History Matches
86
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.04
48.59
Overperformance
53.28
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.60
1.10
Goals for per game
1.50
1.40
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.90
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.33
Overall performance9 signals 90
80
Matches
86
1.34
PPG
1.69
37.5%
Win rate
51.2%
21.3%
Draw rate
15.1%
41.3%
Loss rate
33.7%
78.8%
Over 1.5 rate
80.2%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
62.8%
32.5%
Over 3.5 rate
30.2%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals 100
40
Matches
44
1.75
PPG
1.75
52.5%
Win rate
52.3%
17.5%
Draw rate
18.2%
30.0%
Loss rate
29.5%
77.5%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
65.0%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
32.5%
Over 3.5 rate
31.8%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
40
History Matches
44
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.55
Goals for per game
1.77
72.5%
Scoring rate
87.2%
57.5%
BTTS rate
59.3%
1.85
Goals for per game
1.84
77.5%
Scoring rate
86.4%
52.5%
BTTS rate
59.1%
80
History Matches
86
1.55
Goals Mean
1.77
1.37
Goals Std
1.35
72.5%
Scored 1+ rate
87.2%
45.0%
Scored 2+ rate
51.2%
23.8%
Scored 3+ rate
19.8%
1.85
Venue Goals Mean
1.84
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.39
Goals against per game
1.24
78.8%
Conceding rate
69.8%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.23
67.5%
Conceding rate
70.5%
80
History Matches
86
1.39
Conceded Mean
1.24
1.01
Conceded Std
1.14
45.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.2%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.8%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.23
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
21.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
12.8%
32.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
21.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
27.5%
Failed-to-score rate
12.8%
32.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.5%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
13.6%
21.3%
Clean-sheet rate
30.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
80
History Matches
86
0.97
Result entropy
0.91
1.74
Goal Difference Std
1.91
3.31
Stability score
9.43
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
80
Eligible Matches
85
24
Lead Matches
29
70.8%
Lead Win Rate
82.8%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.85
25
Trailing Matches
22
16.0%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
4.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
80
Halftime Coverage Matches
85
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.07
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
66
Normal Rest History Matches
76
1.27
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.68
9
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.83
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
8
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.60
Portability PPG Std
0.61
1.60
Portability PPG Range
2.00
45.66
Portability Score
44.93
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
80
Clean History Matches
86
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-103.4
PPG-0.35
GF-0.22
GA0.14
PPG0.00
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate14.7%
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate3.0%
Failed-to-score rate8.9%
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.22
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate4.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.01
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.32
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.14
Conceded Std-0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate7.8%
Conceded 3+ rate0.00
Venue Conceded Mean-0.13
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std-0.17
Stability score-6.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.02
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.40
Portability Score0.73
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.25
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.41
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.61
Current Team ELO-103.4
Current Opponent ELO103.4
Current ELO Difference-206.8
Expected score-0.29
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.02
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Chorley
L
Chorley1–2Hereford7 Nov · home
Pick: Hereford 41% · hit L
Spennymoor Town2–0Chorley31 Oct · away
Pick: Chorley 38% · missed W
Radcliffe0–3Chorley27 Oct · away
Pick: Chorley 43% · hit L
Chorley2–3Buxton24 Oct · home
Pick: Chorley 44% · missed D
Chorley1–1Worcester City17 Oct · home
Pick: Chorley 47% · missed Buxton
D
Scarborough Athletic2–2Buxton7 Nov · away
Pick: Scarborough Athletic 42% · missed W
Buxton4–2Marine31 Oct · home
Pick: Buxton 48% · hit W
Buxton3–0Harborough Town27 Oct · home
Pick: Buxton 41% · hit W
Chorley2–3Buxton24 Oct · away
Pick: Chorley 44% · missed D
Buxton2–2Worksop Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Buxton 56% · missed About this match
Chorley and Buxton meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Victory Park, Chorley. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Chorley win 28.6%, draw 26.4%, Buxton win 45.0%. The pick is Buxton win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.9%. Both teams to score: 57.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.