Darmstadt 98 II vs Baunatal
Match result probability Model pick: Darmstadt 98 II win
Darmstadt 98 II winPick
54.4%
Draw
18.9%
Baunatal win
26.6%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes61.4%
No38.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.572.3%
Under 2.527.7%
How much we know
Darmstadt 98 II history56 matches
Baunatal history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Darmstadt 98 II
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 13:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.4%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Darmstadt 98 II are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,533 against 1,520. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Darmstadt 98 II score more
2.36 goals a game over 56 matches for Darmstadt 98 II, against 1.77 over 56 for Baunatal.
-
Baunatal concede fewer
Darmstadt 98 II concede 1.73 a game, Baunatal 1.54.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
75% of Darmstadt 98 II matches, against 70% for Baunatal. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Baunatal@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1532.7
ELO
1519.6
56
ELO · Matches
56
1532.7
Current Team ELO
1519.6
1519.6
Current Opponent ELO
1532.7
13.12
Current ELO Difference
-13.12
0.52
Expected score
0.48
56
History Matches
56
0.04
Residual Mean
0.02
52.64
Overperformance
51.36
0.43
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.40
2.80
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
2.60
PPG
0.90
3.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.10
Goals against per game
2.00
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
3.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.34
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals 90
56
Matches
56
1.54
PPG
1.63
46.4%
Win rate
46.4%
14.3%
Draw rate
23.2%
39.3%
Loss rate
30.4%
91.1%
Over 1.5 rate
85.7%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
69.6%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
41.1%
2.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
Venue performance10 signals 100
30
Matches
27
1.67
PPG
1.56
50.0%
Win rate
44.4%
16.7%
Draw rate
22.2%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.5%
86.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
70.0%
Over 3.5 rate
37.0%
2.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
30
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.36
Goals for per game
1.77
85.7%
Scoring rate
82.1%
64.3%
BTTS rate
60.7%
2.77
Goals for per game
1.67
93.3%
Scoring rate
81.5%
63.3%
BTTS rate
59.3%
2.80
Goals for per game
0.80
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
56
History Matches
56
2.36
Goals Mean
1.77
1.81
Goals Std
1.38
85.7%
Scored 1+ rate
82.1%
55.4%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
44.6%
Scored 3+ rate
28.6%
2.77
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.73
Goals against per game
1.54
78.6%
Conceding rate
73.2%
1.70
Goals against per game
1.48
70.0%
Conceding rate
70.4%
0.80
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
56
History Matches
56
1.73
Conceded Mean
1.54
1.45
Conceded Std
1.28
46.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.4%
30.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.8%
1.70
Venue Conceded Mean
1.48
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
6.7%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
26.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
56
History Matches
56
0.91
Result entropy
0.96
2.60
Goal Difference Std
2.00
8.86
Stability score
3.77
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
56
Eligible Matches
56
25
Lead Matches
16
84.0%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.77
13
Trailing Matches
16
15.4%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
7.7%
Trailing Win Rate
31.3%
Goal timing5 signals 50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.96
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
1.39
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.02
1.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.02
Rest days
84.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.38
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.75
23
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.57
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.48
Competition & season17 signals 170
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
0.40
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.89
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.20
Current Competition PPG
0.40
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.36
Portability PPG Std
0.73
0.88
Portability PPG Range
1.73
58.24
Portability Score
40.65
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
56
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO13.12
PPG-0.09
GF0.59
GA0.20
PPG1.80
PPG0.11
PPG1.80
PPG1.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate0.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.59
Goals Std0.43
Scored 1+ rate3.6%
Scored 2+ rate5.4%
Scored 3+ rate16.1%
Venue Goals Mean1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.48
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.20
Conceded Std0.16
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate3.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.64
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.60
Stability score5.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.08
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate15.3%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate-0.24
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.37
Portability PPG Range-0.86
Portability Score17.59
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.09
Current Team ELO13.12
Current Opponent ELO-13.12
Current ELO Difference26.24
Expected score0.04
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.28
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.64
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Darmstadt 98 II
L
Fernwald1–0Darmstadt 98 II31 Oct · away
Pick: Darmstadt 98 II 55% · missed W
Darmstadt 98 II3–0Vfb Marburg24 Oct · home
Pick: Darmstadt 98 II 53% · hit L
1960 Hanau1–0Darmstadt 98 II18 Oct · away
Pick: Darmstadt 98 II 54% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Baunatal
W
Eddersheim0–1Baunatal1 Nov · away
Pick: Eddersheim 61% · missed L
Baunatal0–2Fernwald24 Oct · home
Pick: Fernwald 39% · hit D
Vfb Marburg2–2Baunatal17 Oct · away
Pick: Vfb Marburg 54% · missed L
Kassel 22–0Baunatal4 Oct · away
Pick: Kassel 2 37% · hit L
Baunatal2–3Friedberg29 Aug · home
Pick: Friedberg 44% · hit About this match
Darmstadt 98 II and Baunatal meet in Oberliga - Hessen on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Darmstadt 98 II win 54.4%, draw 18.9%, Baunatal win 26.6%. The pick is Darmstadt 98 II win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.3%. Both teams to score: 61.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.