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Oberliga - Hessen Germany Hessen - 18 2026

Hünfelder SV vs Fernwald

Hünfelder SV Home · Elo 1,510
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Fernwald Away · Elo 1,503
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hünfelder SV win
Hünfelder SV winPick
45.9%
Draw
23.7%
Fernwald win
30.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes64.1%
No35.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.8%
Under 2.531.2%

How much we know

Hünfelder SV history56 matches
Fernwald history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.9%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Hünfelder SV are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,510 against 1,503. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Hünfelder SV score more

    1.98 goals a game over 56 matches for Hünfelder SV, against 1.70 over 54 for Fernwald.

  • Fernwald concede fewer

    Hünfelder SV concede 1.93 a game, Fernwald 1.39.

  • Hünfelder SV games more often go over 2.5 goals

    77% of Hünfelder SV matches, against 50% for Fernwald. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hünfelder SV
Fernwald@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1510.1
ELO
1502.9
56
ELO · Matches
54
1510.1
Current Team ELO
1502.9
1502.9
Current Opponent ELO
1510.1
7.17
Current ELO Difference
-7.17
0.51
Expected score
0.49
56
History Matches
54
0.01
Residual Mean
0.01
50.42
Overperformance
50.40
-0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.60
2.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.00
2.30
Goals for per game
1.00
2.80
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.42
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.63
2.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.78
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.73
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.06
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
54
1.41
PPG
1.44
42.9%
Win rate
38.9%
12.5%
Draw rate
27.8%
44.6%
Loss rate
33.3%
91.1%
Over 1.5 rate
90.7%
76.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
29.6%
2.36
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.13
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
26
1.22
PPG
1.35
37.0%
Win rate
38.5%
11.1%
Draw rate
19.2%
51.9%
Loss rate
42.3%
85.2%
Over 1.5 rate
92.3%
70.4%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
48.1%
Over 3.5 rate
26.9%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
27
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.98
Goals for per game
1.70
83.9%
Scoring rate
88.9%
71.4%
BTTS rate
63.0%
1.85
Goals for per game
1.65
77.8%
Scoring rate
92.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
65.4%
2.60
Goals for per game
1.40
80.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
56
History Matches
54
1.98
Goals Mean
1.70
1.60
Goals Std
1.52
83.9%
Scored 1+ rate
88.9%
51.8%
Scored 2+ rate
44.4%
30.4%
Scored 3+ rate
14.8%
1.85
Venue Goals Mean
1.65
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.93
Goals against per game
1.39
87.5%
Conceding rate
70.4%
1.81
Goals against per game
1.42
88.9%
Conceding rate
73.1%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
80.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
56
History Matches
54
1.93
Conceded Mean
1.39
1.39
Conceded Std
1.30
53.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.7%
28.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.5%
1.81
Venue Conceded Mean
1.42
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
7.7%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
16.1%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
7.7%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
54
0.89
Result entropy
0.99
2.36
Goal Difference Std
2.13
10.52
Stability score
0.85
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
53
17
Lead Matches
25
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
64.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.69
20
Trailing Matches
12
20.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
16.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.98
0.84
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
1.24
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
1.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.02
Rest days
83.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
28
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.14
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
25
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.72
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.60
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.17
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.33
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.40
Current Competition PPG
1.60
1.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.20
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.35
1.04
Portability PPG Range
0.87
51.06
Portability Score
58.56
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO7.17
PPG-0.03
GF0.28
GA0.54
PPG0.80
PPG-0.12
PPG0.80
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Failed-to-score rate5.0%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate14.5%
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.28
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate7.3%
Scored 3+ rate15.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.79
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.54
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.17
Conceded 2+ rate12.8%
Conceded 3+ rate10.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.05
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std0.23
Stability score9.67
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.35
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.13
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate12.5%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.24
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.50
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.34
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.13
Portability PPG Range0.18
Portability Score-7.50
Rest days1.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.12
Current Team ELO7.17
Current Opponent ELO-7.17
Current ELO Difference14.34
Expected score0.02
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hünfelder SV

L
Bayern Alzenau2–1Hünfelder SV6 Nov · away
Pick: Hünfelder SV 44% · missed
L
Hünfelder SV0–4Eintracht Stadtallendorf31 Oct · home
Pick: Eintracht Stadtallendorf 48% · hit
L
Hünfelder SV0–2Friedberg17 Oct · home
Pick: Hünfelder SV 49% · missed
W
Hummetroth1–2Hünfelder SV29 Aug · away
Pick: Hünfelder SV 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Fernwald

W
Unter-Flockenbach0–1Fernwald7 Nov · away
Pick: Unter-Flockenbach 54% · missed
W
Fernwald1–0Darmstadt 98 II31 Oct · home
Pick: Darmstadt 98 II 55% · missed
W
Baunatal0–2Fernwald24 Oct · away
Pick: Fernwald 39% · hit
D
Fernwald2–2Hadamar17 Oct · home
Pick: Hadamar 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hünfelder SV and Fernwald meet in Oberliga - Hessen on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Hünfelder SV win 45.9%, draw 23.7%, Fernwald win 30.4%. The pick is Hünfelder SV win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.8%. Both teams to score: 64.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.