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Oberliga - Hessen Germany Hessen - 18 2026

Unter-Flockenbach vs Hadamar

Unter-Flockenbach Home · Elo 1,495
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hadamar Away · Elo 1,540
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Unter-Flockenbach win
Unter-Flockenbach winPick
49.5%
Draw
22.2%
Hadamar win
28.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.3%
No43.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.2%
Under 2.540.8%

How much we know

Unter-Flockenbach history19 matches
Hadamar history8 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.5%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Unter-Flockenbach are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hadamar are rated 45 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,540 against 1,495. On rating alone Hadamar would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.05 goals a game over 19 matches for Unter-Flockenbach, against 1.88 over 8 for Hadamar.

  • Hadamar concede fewer

    Unter-Flockenbach concede 2.42 a game, Hadamar 0.75.

  • Unter-Flockenbach games more often go over 2.5 goals

    84% of Unter-Flockenbach matches, against 50% for Hadamar. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Unter-Flockenbach
Hadamar@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1495.3
ELO
1540.3
19
ELO · Matches
8
1495.3
Current Team ELO
1540.3
1540.3
Current Opponent ELO
1495.3
-45.06
Current ELO Difference
45.06
0.44
Expected score
0.56
19
History Matches
8
-0.04
Residual Mean
0.25
48.25
Overperformance
57.20
0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.25
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.20
3.60
Goals for per game
2.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
8
1.60
PPG
2.00
2.50
Goals for per game
1.88
2.20
Goals against per game
0.75
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.88
1.57
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.54
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.75
1.83
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.97
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
3.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.45
Overall performance9 signals
90
19
Matches
8
1.21
PPG
2.00
31.6%
Win rate
50.0%
26.3%
Draw rate
50.0%
42.1%
Loss rate
0.0%
94.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
84.2%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
73.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.45
Venue performance10 signals
100
7
Matches
4
2.14
PPG
2.00
57.1%
Win rate
50.0%
42.9%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.99
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
7
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.05
Goals for per game
1.88
89.5%
Scoring rate
75.0%
78.9%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.29
Goals for per game
2.00
85.7%
Scoring rate
75.0%
57.1%
BTTS rate
25.0%
3.60
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
80.0%
BTTS rate
60.0%
19
History Matches
8
2.05
Goals Mean
1.88
1.36
Goals Std
1.54
89.5%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
68.4%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
26.3%
Scored 3+ rate
37.5%
2.29
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.42
Goals against per game
0.75
84.2%
Conceding rate
50.0%
0.71
Goals against per game
0.25
57.1%
Conceding rate
25.0%
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
60.0%
19
History Matches
8
2.42
Conceded Mean
0.75
1.84
Conceded Std
0.97
57.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
12.5%
47.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
0.71
Venue Conceded Mean
0.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
10.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
15.8%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
19
History Matches
8
0.98
Result entropy
0.63
2.56
Goal Difference Std
1.45
1.74
Stability score
36.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
19
Eligible Matches
6
4
Lead Matches
2
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
1.00
9
Trailing Matches
0
22.2%
Non-loss rate
—
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals
50
19
Halftime Coverage Matches
6
0.42
First Half Goals For Mean
1.17
1.26
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
1.63
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.17
1.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.10
Rest days
83.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
10
Normal Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
7
Long Rest History Matches
4
0.71
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.20
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
2.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.10
5
Current Competition Matches
5
2.40
Current Competition PPG
2.20
2.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.81
Portability PPG Std
0.27
1.61
Portability PPG Range
0.53
38.25
Portability Score
65.22
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
19
Clean History Matches
8
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win Rate
ELO-45.06
PPG-0.79
GF0.18
GA1.67
PPG0.20
PPG0.14
PPG0.20
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.34
Failed-to-score rate-0.14
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.32
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches11
Goals Mean0.18
Goals Std-0.18
Scored 1+ rate14.5%
Scored 2+ rate18.4%
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.63
Recent 10 Goals Std0.03
History Matches11
Conceded Mean1.67
Conceded Std0.88
Clean-sheet rate-0.34
Conceded 2+ rate45.4%
Conceded 3+ rate34.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.45
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.86
History Matches11
Result entropy0.35
Goal Difference Std1.11
Stability score-35.17
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.58
Eligible Matches13
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.25
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches9
Halftime Coverage Matches13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.75
First Half Goals Against Mean0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean0.46
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.66
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.20
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.20
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.54
Portability PPG Range1.08
Portability Score-26.97
Rest days1.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.50
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.79
Current Team ELO-45.06
Current Opponent ELO45.06
Current ELO Difference-90.12
Expected score-0.13
History Matches11
Residual Mean-0.29
Overperformance-8.95
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Unter-Flockenbach

L
Unter-Flockenbach0–1Fernwald7 Nov · home
Pick: Unter-Flockenbach 54% · missed
W
Vfb Marburg0–1Unter-Flockenbach31 Oct · away
Pick: Vfb Marburg 48% · missed
W
Unter-Flockenbach3–01960 Hanau24 Oct · home
Pick: Unter-Flockenbach 53% · hit
D
Kassel 22–2Unter-Flockenbach18 Oct · away
Pick: Unter-Flockenbach 55% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hadamar

D
Hadamar1–1Rot-Weiß Walldorf7 Nov · home
Pick: Hadamar 65% · missed
W
Hummetroth1–5Hadamar31 Oct · away
Pick: Hadamar 69% · hit
W
Hadamar6–1Eddersheim24 Oct · home
Pick: Hadamar 41% · hit
D
Fernwald2–2Hadamar17 Oct · away
Pick: Hadamar 42% · missed
L
1960 Hanau1–0Hadamar4 Oct · away
Pick: Hadamar 48% · missed

About this match

Unter-Flockenbach and Hadamar meet in Oberliga - Hessen on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Unter-Flockenbach win 49.5%, draw 22.2%, Hadamar win 28.2%. The pick is Unter-Flockenbach win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.2%. Both teams to score: 56.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.