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Oberliga - Hessen Germany Hessen - 18 2026

Bayern Alzenau vs Eddersheim

Bayern Alzenau Home · Elo 1,453
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Eddersheim Away · Elo 1,593
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Eddersheim win
Bayern Alzenau win
34.6%
Draw
22.3%
Eddersheim winPick
43.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes67.6%
No32.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.0%
Under 2.528.0%

How much we know

Bayern Alzenau history65 matches
Eddersheim history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.1%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Eddersheim are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Eddersheim are rated 140 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,593 against 1,453. On rating alone Eddersheim would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Eddersheim score more

    1.83 goals a game over 65 matches for Bayern Alzenau, against 2.20 over 59 for Eddersheim.

  • Eddersheim concede fewer

    Bayern Alzenau concede 1.86 a game, Eddersheim 1.46.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    71% of Bayern Alzenau matches, against 69% for Eddersheim. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Bayern Alzenau
Eddersheim@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1452.6
ELO
1592.9
65
ELO · Matches
59
1452.6
Current Team ELO
1592.9
1592.9
Current Opponent ELO
1452.6
-140.3
Current ELO Difference
140.3
0.31
Expected score
0.69
65
History Matches
59
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.07
47.83
Overperformance
55.15
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.70
2.60
Goals for per game
2.40
2.30
Goals against per game
2.10
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
2.06
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.00
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
59
1.20
PPG
1.80
32.3%
Win rate
49.2%
23.1%
Draw rate
32.2%
44.6%
Loss rate
18.6%
87.7%
Over 1.5 rate
86.4%
70.8%
Over 2.5 rate
69.5%
52.3%
Over 3.5 rate
55.9%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals
100
35
Matches
32
1.26
PPG
1.50
31.4%
Win rate
37.5%
31.4%
Draw rate
37.5%
37.1%
Loss rate
25.0%
91.4%
Over 1.5 rate
84.4%
65.7%
Over 2.5 rate
59.4%
54.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
2.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
35
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.83
Goals for per game
2.20
81.5%
Scoring rate
88.1%
64.6%
BTTS rate
74.6%
1.97
Goals for per game
1.91
88.6%
Scoring rate
81.3%
65.7%
BTTS rate
68.8%
1.20
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
59
1.83
Goals Mean
2.20
1.68
Goals Std
1.54
81.5%
Scored 1+ rate
88.1%
50.8%
Scored 2+ rate
59.3%
24.6%
Scored 3+ rate
44.1%
1.97
Venue Goals Mean
1.91
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.86
Goals against per game
1.46
80.0%
Conceding rate
79.7%
1.74
Goals against per game
1.47
74.3%
Conceding rate
78.1%
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
59
1.86
Conceded Mean
1.46
1.36
Conceded Std
1.17
56.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.0%
33.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.3%
1.74
Venue Conceded Mean
1.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.3%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
11.9%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.9%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.3%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
11.9%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.9%
11.4%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
59
0.97
Result entropy
0.93
2.30
Goal Difference Std
1.90
3.20
Stability score
6.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
58
14
Lead Matches
25
78.6%
Lead Win Rate
84.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.89
25
Trailing Matches
18
36.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
8.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
1.14
0.95
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
3
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
39
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.15
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.48
24
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
60.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
20.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
0.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.62
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.60
Current Competition PPG
1.60
-0.40
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.40
5
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.54
Portability PPG Std
0.35
1.26
Portability PPG Range
0.90
47.90
Portability Score
59.09
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-140.3
PPG-0.60
GF-0.37
GA0.40
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.24
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate6.6%
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate3.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.37
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.09
Scored 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Goals Mean0.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.95
History Matches6
Conceded Mean0.40
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate17.9%
Conceded 3+ rate13.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.27
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.41
History Matches6
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.40
Stability score-3.31
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.10
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate-0.05
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.80
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.20
Portability PPG Range0.35
Portability Score-11.19
Rest days0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.89
Current Team ELO-140.3
Current Opponent ELO140.3
Current ELO Difference-280.6
Expected score-0.38
History Matches6
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Bayern Alzenau

W
Bayern Alzenau2–1Hünfelder SV6 Nov · home
Pick: Hünfelder SV 44% · missed
W
FC Gießen1–2Bayern Alzenau31 Oct · away
Pick: FC Gießen 40% · missed
D
Eintracht Stadtallendorf1–1Bayern Alzenau24 Oct · away
Pick: Eintracht Stadtallendorf 61% · missed
L
Bayern Alzenau0–1TuBa Pohlheim17 Oct · home
Pick: Bayern Alzenau 46% · missed
L
Rot-Weiß Walldorf3–0Bayern Alzenau30 Aug · away
Pick: Bayern Alzenau 47% · missed

Eddersheim

L
Eddersheim0–1Baunatal1 Nov · home
Pick: Eddersheim 61% · missed
L
Hadamar6–1Eddersheim24 Oct · away
Pick: Hadamar 41% · hit
L
Eddersheim2–3Kassel18 Oct · home
Pick: Eddersheim 71% · missed
W
Eddersheim2–1Hummetroth4 Oct · home
Pick: Eddersheim 72% · hit
W
Eddersheim3–2Kassel 230 Aug · home
Pick: Eddersheim 70% · hit

About this match

Bayern Alzenau and Eddersheim meet in Oberliga - Hessen on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Bayern Alzenau win 34.6%, draw 22.3%, Eddersheim win 43.1%. The pick is Eddersheim win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.0%. Both teams to score: 67.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.