Friedberg vs Kassel
Match result probability Model pick: Friedberg win
Friedberg winPick
67.6%
Draw
14.8%
Kassel win
17.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes64.4%
No35.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.573.4%
Under 2.526.6%
How much we know
Friedberg history58 matches
Kassel history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Friedberg
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 12:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 13:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (67.6%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.
Why Friedberg are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Friedberg are rated 28 Elo points higher
Elo 1,519 against 1,491. On rating alone Friedberg would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.81 goals a game over 58 matches for Friedberg, against 1.88 over 43 for Kassel.
-
Friedberg concede fewer
Friedberg concede 1.69 a game, Kassel 2.49.
-
Kassel games more often go over 2.5 goals
57% of Friedberg matches, against 72% for Kassel. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Kassel@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1518.9
ELO
1491.1
58
ELO · Matches
43
1518.9
Current Team ELO
1491.1
1491.1
Current Opponent ELO
1518.9
27.79
Current ELO Difference
-27.79
0.54
Expected score
0.46
58
History Matches
43
0.02
Residual Mean
0.00
51.14
Overperformance
49.81
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
3.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.30
1.80
Goals for per game
2.50
1.30
Goals against per game
3.10
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.69
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.10
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.07
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.75
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.65
Overall performance9 signals 90
58
Matches
43
1.50
PPG
1.21
41.4%
Win rate
32.6%
25.9%
Draw rate
23.3%
32.8%
Loss rate
44.2%
84.5%
Over 1.5 rate
93.0%
56.9%
Over 2.5 rate
72.1%
39.7%
Over 3.5 rate
62.8%
2.18
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.51
Venue performance10 signals 100
29
Matches
20
1.52
PPG
1.25
44.8%
Win rate
35.0%
17.2%
Draw rate
20.0%
37.9%
Loss rate
45.0%
93.1%
Over 1.5 rate
95.0%
65.5%
Over 2.5 rate
85.0%
37.9%
Over 3.5 rate
65.0%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.54
29
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.81
Goals for per game
1.88
81.0%
Scoring rate
72.1%
60.3%
BTTS rate
69.8%
2.07
Goals for per game
2.05
86.2%
Scoring rate
75.0%
65.5%
BTTS rate
70.0%
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
80.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
80.0%
58
History Matches
43
1.81
Goals Mean
1.88
1.54
Goals Std
1.73
81.0%
Scored 1+ rate
72.1%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
46.5%
27.6%
Scored 3+ rate
37.2%
2.07
Venue Goals Mean
2.05
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.69
Goals against per game
2.49
77.6%
Conceding rate
93.0%
1.76
Goals against per game
2.45
79.3%
Conceding rate
95.0%
1.40
Goals against per game
3.00
80.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
58
History Matches
43
1.69
Conceded Mean
2.49
1.53
Conceded Std
1.77
41.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
65.1%
25.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
37.2%
1.76
Venue Conceded Mean
2.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
7.0%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
5.0%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
7.0%
19.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
20.7%
Clean-sheet rate
5.0%
13.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
22.4%
Clean-sheet rate
7.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
58
History Matches
43
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
2.18
Goal Difference Std
2.51
1.65
Stability score
3.02
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
57
Eligible Matches
42
23
Lead Matches
13
65.2%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.82
15
Trailing Matches
17
33.3%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals 50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.96
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.50
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
82.98
Rest days
83.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
26
1.55
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
23
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.43
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.87
Competition & season17 signals 170
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
40.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
20.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
40.0%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
60.0%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.86
5
Current Competition Matches
5
1.60
Current Competition PPG
0.80
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.80
6
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.20
Portability PPG Std
0.25
0.49
Portability PPG Range
0.50
71.13
Portability Score
66.79
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
58
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO27.79
PPG0.29
GF-0.07
GA-0.80
PPG0.80
PPG0.27
PPG0.80
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches15
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate15.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches15
Goals Mean-0.07
Goals Std-0.19
Scored 1+ rate8.9%
Scored 2+ rate3.5%
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.52
History Matches15
Conceded Mean-0.80
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.24
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.69
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.97
History Matches15
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.33
Stability score-1.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.91
Eligible Matches15
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate9.8%
Trailing Win Rate14.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches15
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.12
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.54
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.80
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.01
Portability Score4.34
Rest days-0.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.16
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.57
Current Team ELO27.79
Current Opponent ELO-27.79
Current ELO Difference55.57
Expected score0.08
History Matches15
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Friedberg
W
Friedberg5–2Vfb Marburg7 Nov · home
Pick: Friedberg 40% · hit L
1960 Hanau3–1Friedberg1 Nov · away
Pick: 1960 Hanau 39% · hit W
Friedberg5–1Kassel 224 Oct · home
Pick: Friedberg 62% · hit W
Hünfelder SV0–2Friedberg17 Oct · away
Pick: Hünfelder SV 49% · missed W
Baunatal2–3Friedberg29 Aug · away
Pick: Friedberg 44% · hit Kassel
W
Rot-Weiß Walldorf1–2Kassel1 Nov · away
Pick: Rot-Weiß Walldorf 47% · missed W
Eddersheim2–3Kassel18 Oct · away
Pick: Eddersheim 71% · missed L
Kassel1–3Eintracht Stadtallendorf30 Aug · home
Pick: Eintracht Stadtallendorf 73% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Friedberg and Kassel meet in Oberliga - Hessen on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Friedberg win 67.6%, draw 14.8%, Kassel win 17.5%. The pick is Friedberg win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.4%. Both teams to score: 64.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.