De Graafschap vs FC OSS
Match result probability Model pick: De Graafschap win
De Graafschap winPick
50.3%
Draw
21.4%
FC OSS win
28.3%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes61.4%
No38.6%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.564.8%
Under 2.535.2%
How much we know
De Graafschap history70 matches
FC OSS history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours De Graafschap
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 18:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 19:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.3%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why De Graafschap are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
De Graafschap are rated 59 Elo points higher
Elo 1,488 against 1,428. On rating alone De Graafschap would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.
-
De Graafschap score more
1.81 goals a game over 70 matches for De Graafschap, against 1.30 over 64 for FC OSS.
-
Defences are close
De Graafschap concede 1.73 a game, FC OSS 1.80.
-
De Graafschap games more often go over 2.5 goals
64% of De Graafschap matches, against 55% for FC OSS. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC OSS@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1487.5
ELO
1428.2
70
ELO · Matches
64
1487.5
Current Team ELO
1428.2
1428.2
Current Opponent ELO
1487.5
59.37
Current ELO Difference
-59.37
0.58
Expected score
0.42
70
History Matches
64
-0.01
Residual Mean
-0.06
49.22
Overperformance
45.59
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
3.00
Goals against per game
3.40
20.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.20
1.90
Goals for per game
1.80
3.30
Goals against per game
2.50
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
3.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.16
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
2.15
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals 90
70
Matches
64
1.47
PPG
1.02
41.4%
Win rate
23.4%
22.9%
Draw rate
31.3%
35.7%
Loss rate
45.3%
87.1%
Over 1.5 rate
89.1%
64.3%
Over 2.5 rate
54.7%
47.1%
Over 3.5 rate
32.8%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
Venue performance10 signals 100
35
Matches
33
1.66
PPG
0.94
48.6%
Win rate
18.2%
20.0%
Draw rate
39.4%
31.4%
Loss rate
42.4%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
65.7%
Over 2.5 rate
42.4%
48.6%
Over 3.5 rate
30.3%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
35
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.81
Goals for per game
1.30
84.3%
Scoring rate
71.9%
71.4%
BTTS rate
60.9%
1.97
Goals for per game
1.15
91.4%
Scoring rate
69.7%
71.4%
BTTS rate
60.6%
1.33
Goals for per game
0.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
100.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
70
History Matches
64
1.81
Goals Mean
1.30
1.22
Goals Std
1.15
84.3%
Scored 1+ rate
71.9%
60.0%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
25.7%
Scored 3+ rate
12.5%
1.97
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.73
Goals against per game
1.80
82.9%
Conceding rate
82.8%
1.63
Goals against per game
1.88
74.3%
Conceding rate
81.8%
2.67
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
70
History Matches
64
1.73
Conceded Mean
1.80
1.45
Conceded Std
1.47
47.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.6%
22.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.6%
1.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
15.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
8.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
15.7%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
25.7%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
8.6%
Failed-to-score rate
30.3%
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
70
History Matches
64
0.97
Result entropy
0.97
1.84
Goal Difference Std
1.79
2.59
Stability score
3.31
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
68
Eligible Matches
64
25
Lead Matches
15
72.0%
Lead Win Rate
46.7%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.56
15
Trailing Matches
27
26.7%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.90
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.18
Rest days
82.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
10
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
42
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.48
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.82
22
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.16
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
0.33
PPG
0.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
66.7%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.33
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.67
8
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.58
Portability PPG Std
0.55
1.48
Portability PPG Range
1.67
46.16
Portability Score
47.62
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
70
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO59.37
PPG0.46
GF0.52
GA-0.07
PPG0.33
PPG0.72
PPG0.80
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate-0.12
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate7.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.52
Goals Std0.07
Scored 1+ rate12.4%
Scored 2+ rate22.5%
Scored 3+ rate13.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.82
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.46
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.06
History Matches6
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score-0.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.04
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate25.3%
Lead Points Retention0.23
Trailing Matches-12
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate-0.04
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.19
Portability Score-1.46
Rest days1.14
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match0.60
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.65
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.21
Current Team ELO59.37
Current Opponent ELO-59.37
Current ELO Difference118.7
Expected score0.17
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
De Graafschap
W
FC Volendam1–2De Graafschap30 Oct · away
Pick: FC Volendam 51% · missed L
Roda1–0De Graafschap27 Oct · away
Pick: De Graafschap 39% · missed D
De Graafschap1–1Waalwijk23 Oct · home
Pick: Waalwijk 48% · missed L
Jong Ajax2–1De Graafschap19 Oct · away
Pick: De Graafschap 41% · missed L
De Graafschap1–4Almere City FC29 Aug · home
Pick: Almere City FC 50% · hit FC OSS
D
FC OSS1–1Waalwijk6 Nov · home
Pick: Waalwijk 53% · missed L
Heracles2–0FC OSS2 Nov · away
Pick: Heracles 57% · hit W
PEC Zwolle1–2FC OSS28 Oct · away
Pick: FC OSS 41% · hit D
FC OSS3–3Jong Ajax23 Oct · home
Pick: FC OSS 50% · missed L
Den Bosch2–1FC OSS16 Oct · away
Pick: Den Bosch 57% · hit About this match
De Graafschap and FC OSS meet in Eerste Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at De Vijverberg, Doetinchem. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: De Graafschap win 50.3%, draw 21.4%, FC OSS win 28.3%. The pick is De Graafschap win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.8%. Both teams to score: 61.4%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.