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Eerste Divisie Netherlands Round 15 2026

Almere City FC vs Helmond Sport

Almere City FC Home · Elo 1,535
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Helmond Sport Away · Elo 1,400
Yanmar Stadion, Almere Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Almere City FC win
Almere City FC winPick
60.9%
Draw
19.3%
Helmond Sport win
19.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.8%
No41.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.7%
Under 2.534.3%

How much we know

Almere City FC history74 matches
Helmond Sport history66 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.9%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.

Why Almere City FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Almere City FC are rated 135 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,535 against 1,400. On rating alone Almere City FC would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Almere City FC score far more

    1.92 goals a game over 74 matches for Almere City FC, against 1.12 over 66 for Helmond Sport.

  • Defences are close

    Almere City FC concede 1.68 a game, Helmond Sport 1.65.

  • Almere City FC games more often go over 2.5 goals

    70% of Almere City FC matches, against 53% for Helmond Sport. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Almere City FC
Helmond Sport@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1535.4
ELO
1400.4
74
ELO · Matches
66
1535.4
Current Team ELO
1400.4
1400.4
Current Opponent ELO
1535.4
135.0
Current ELO Difference
-135.0
0.69
Expected score
0.31
74
History Matches
66
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.06
51.66
Overperformance
45.09
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.00
3.00
Goals for per game
0.80
2.00
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
0.90
2.10
Goals for per game
0.80
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
2.21
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
66
1.50
PPG
0.95
44.6%
Win rate
22.7%
16.2%
Draw rate
27.3%
39.2%
Loss rate
50.0%
87.8%
Over 1.5 rate
77.3%
70.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.0%
48.6%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
29
1.69
PPG
0.48
50.0%
Win rate
6.9%
19.4%
Draw rate
27.6%
30.6%
Loss rate
65.5%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
69.0%
72.2%
Over 2.5 rate
44.8%
52.8%
Over 3.5 rate
31.0%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.47
36
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.92
Goals for per game
1.12
83.8%
Scoring rate
72.7%
66.2%
BTTS rate
59.1%
2.17
Goals for per game
0.72
83.3%
Scoring rate
58.6%
63.9%
BTTS rate
51.7%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
74
History Matches
66
1.92
Goals Mean
1.12
1.51
Goals Std
0.95
83.8%
Scored 1+ rate
72.7%
54.1%
Scored 2+ rate
30.3%
31.1%
Scored 3+ rate
6.1%
2.17
Venue Goals Mean
0.72
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.68
Goals against per game
1.65
81.1%
Conceding rate
81.8%
1.44
Goals against per game
1.83
77.8%
Conceding rate
86.2%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
74
History Matches
66
1.68
Conceded Mean
1.65
1.24
Conceded Std
1.29
54.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.5%
20.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.2%
1.44
Venue Conceded Mean
1.83
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
16.2%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
41.4%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
16.2%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
41.4%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
18.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
66
0.93
Result entropy
0.94
1.96
Goal Difference Std
1.67
6.95
Stability score
5.55
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
66
18
Lead Matches
18
72.2%
Lead Win Rate
61.1%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.70
25
Trailing Matches
18
28.0%
Non-loss rate
5.6%
16.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.71
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.85
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
1.17
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.04
Rest days
85.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
11
Short Rest History Matches
10
1.45
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
39
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.86
23
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.35
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.79
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
0.67
66.7%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
66.7%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
0.67
1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
7
Competition Season Count
6
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.77
Portability PPG Std
0.13
2.20
Portability PPG Range
0.36
39.47
Portability Score
79.31
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
66
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO135.0
PPG0.55
GF0.80
GA0.02
PPG1.67
PPG1.21
PPG1.00
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate8.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.80
Goals Std0.57
Scored 1+ rate11.1%
Scored 2+ rate23.8%
Scored 3+ rate25.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.44
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std1.61
History Matches8
Conceded Mean0.02
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate0.7%
Conceded 2+ rate8.6%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.14
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score1.40
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.72
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate11.1%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate22.4%
Trailing Win Rate10.4%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count3
Portability PPG Std0.64
Portability PPG Range1.84
Portability Score-39.83
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.05
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.78
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match0.56
Current Team ELO135.0
Current Opponent ELO-135.0
Current ELO Difference269.9
Expected score0.37
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.57
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Almere City FC

W
Jong AZ1–3Almere City FC6 Nov · away
Pick: Almere City FC 48% · hit
W
Waalwijk1–2Almere City FC30 Oct · away
Pick: Almere City FC 40% · hit
W
Telstar0–2Almere City FC27 Oct · away
Pick: Almere City FC 40% · hit
L
Almere City FC2–3Roda23 Oct · home
Pick: Almere City FC 63% · missed
L
Emmen2–1Almere City FC17 Oct · away
Pick: Almere City FC 37% · missed

Helmond Sport

L
Helmond Sport2–3FC Volendam6 Nov · home
Pick: Helmond Sport 37% · missed
W
Helmond Sport3–2FC Eindhoven30 Oct · home
Pick: Helmond Sport 47% · hit
L
Helmond Sport3–4Willem II27 Oct · home
Pick: Willem II 45% · hit
L
Jong AZ5–4Helmond Sport23 Oct · away
Pick: Jong AZ 48% · hit
L
Helmond Sport0–2NAC Breda16 Oct · home
Pick: Helmond Sport 39% · missed

About this match

Almere City FC and Helmond Sport meet in Eerste Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Yanmar Stadion, Almere. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Almere City FC win 60.9%, draw 19.3%, Helmond Sport win 19.8%. The pick is Almere City FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.7%. Both teams to score: 58.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.