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Eerste Divisie Netherlands Round 15 2026

Waalwijk vs Den Bosch

Waalwijk Home · Elo 1,493
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Den Bosch Away · Elo 1,491
Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Den Bosch win
Waalwijk win
35.9%
Draw
26.7%
Den Bosch winPick
37.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.4%
No36.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.5%
Under 2.537.5%

How much we know

Waalwijk history73 matches
Den Bosch history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.5%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Den Bosch are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,493 against 1,491. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.73 goals a game over 73 matches for Waalwijk, against 1.57 over 72 for Den Bosch.

  • Defences are close

    Waalwijk concede 1.58 a game, Den Bosch 1.65.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    63% of Waalwijk matches, against 63% for Den Bosch. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 21 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Waalwijk
Den Bosch@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1493.3
ELO
1491.0
73
ELO · Matches
72
1493.3
Current Team ELO
1491.0
1491.0
Current Opponent ELO
1493.3
2.28
Current ELO Difference
-2.28
0.50
Expected score
0.50
73
History Matches
72
0.00
Residual Mean
0.00
49.97
Overperformance
50.31
-0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
2.00
1.60
Goals for per game
2.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.70
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.40
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.81
Overall performance9 signals
90
73
Matches
72
1.33
PPG
1.33
34.2%
Win rate
36.1%
30.1%
Draw rate
25.0%
35.6%
Loss rate
38.9%
90.4%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
63.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
42.5%
Over 3.5 rate
43.1%
2.16
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
32
1.53
PPG
0.88
42.1%
Win rate
21.9%
26.3%
Draw rate
21.9%
31.6%
Loss rate
56.3%
92.1%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
65.8%
Over 2.5 rate
68.8%
39.5%
Over 3.5 rate
46.9%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
38
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.73
Goals for per game
1.57
82.2%
Scoring rate
79.2%
68.5%
BTTS rate
65.3%
1.82
Goals for per game
1.25
86.8%
Scoring rate
68.8%
68.4%
BTTS rate
65.6%
1.33
Goals for per game
2.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
73
History Matches
72
1.73
Goals Mean
1.57
1.55
Goals Std
1.27
82.2%
Scored 1+ rate
79.2%
46.6%
Scored 2+ rate
47.2%
20.5%
Scored 3+ rate
18.1%
1.82
Venue Goals Mean
1.25
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.58
Goals against per game
1.65
82.2%
Conceding rate
79.2%
1.47
Goals against per game
2.03
78.9%
Conceding rate
87.5%
1.33
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
73
History Matches
72
1.58
Conceded Mean
1.65
1.19
Conceded Std
1.28
49.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
16.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.4%
1.47
Venue Conceded Mean
2.03
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
17.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
17.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
13.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
17.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
17.8%
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
21.1%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
13.2%
Failed-to-score rate
31.3%
17.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
73
History Matches
72
1.00
Result entropy
0.98
2.16
Goal Difference Std
1.76
0.23
Stability score
1.54
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
70
24
Lead Matches
21
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.71
22
Trailing Matches
21
27.3%
Non-loss rate
23.8%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.72
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
1.01
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.97
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.86
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.04
Rest days
85.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
10
1.57
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.30
45
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
20
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.76
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.33
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
100.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
7
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.49
1.33
Portability PPG Range
1.41
54.48
Portability Score
50.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
73
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO2.28
PPG0.00
GF0.16
GA-0.08
PPG-0.33
PPG0.65
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate8.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.16
Goals Std0.28
Scored 1+ rate3.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate2.5%
Venue Goals Mean0.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.53
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.08
Conceded Std-0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Conceded Mean-0.56
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.44
History Matches1
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.40
Stability score-1.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.63
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate0.0%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate3.5%
Trailing Win Rate4.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.67
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.08
Portability Score4.06
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.27
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.26
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.76
Current Team ELO2.28
Current Opponent ELO-2.28
Current ELO Difference4.56
Expected score0.01
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Waalwijk

D
FC OSS1–1Waalwijk6 Nov · away
Pick: Waalwijk 53% · missed
L
Waalwijk1–2Almere City FC30 Oct · home
Pick: Almere City FC 40% · hit
D
De Graafschap1–1Waalwijk23 Oct · away
Pick: Waalwijk 48% · missed
D
Waalwijk1–1FC Volendam18 Oct · home
Pick: Waalwijk 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Den Bosch

D
Den Bosch1–1Jong Utrecht7 Nov · home
Pick: Den Bosch 67% · missed
W
Rijnsburgse Boys3–5Den Bosch27 Oct · away
Pick: Den Bosch 42% · hit
D
Den Bosch2–2MVV23 Oct · home
Pick: Den Bosch 51% · missed
W
Den Bosch2–1FC OSS16 Oct · home
Pick: Den Bosch 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Waalwijk and Den Bosch meet in Eerste Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Mandemakers Stadion, Waalwijk. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Waalwijk win 35.9%, draw 26.7%, Den Bosch win 37.5%. The pick is Den Bosch win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.5%. Both teams to score: 63.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.