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Eerste Divisie Netherlands Round 15 2026

NAC Breda vs Emmen

NAC Breda Home · Elo 1,452
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Emmen Away · Elo 1,479
Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Emmen win
NAC Breda win
33.4%
Draw
28.1%
Emmen winPick
38.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.8%
No40.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.9%
Under 2.541.1%

How much we know

NAC Breda history65 matches
Emmen history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.5%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Emmen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Emmen are rated 27 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,479 against 1,452. On rating alone Emmen would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Emmen score more

    1.15 goals a game over 65 matches for NAC Breda, against 1.60 over 62 for Emmen.

  • Defences are close

    NAC Breda concede 1.68 a game, Emmen 1.81.

  • Emmen games more often go over 2.5 goals

    49% of NAC Breda matches, against 65% for Emmen. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
NAC Breda
Emmen@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1451.6
ELO
1478.6
65
ELO · Matches
62
1451.6
Current Team ELO
1478.6
1478.6
Current Opponent ELO
1451.6
-27.01
Current ELO Difference
27.01
0.46
Expected score
0.54
65
History Matches
62
-0.03
Residual Mean
-0.03
47.68
Overperformance
48.02
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.22
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.40
1.60
Goals for per game
2.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
1.90
1.60
Goals for per game
2.10
1.80
Goals against per game
1.90
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.76
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.70
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.33
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.48
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
62
0.95
PPG
1.29
21.5%
Win rate
37.1%
30.8%
Draw rate
17.7%
47.7%
Loss rate
45.2%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
82.3%
49.2%
Over 2.5 rate
64.5%
30.8%
Over 3.5 rate
46.8%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
34
1.12
PPG
1.06
26.5%
Win rate
29.4%
32.4%
Draw rate
17.6%
41.2%
Loss rate
52.9%
76.5%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
41.2%
Over 2.5 rate
61.8%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
44.1%
1.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.88
34
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.15
Goals for per game
1.60
63.1%
Scoring rate
71.0%
53.8%
BTTS rate
56.5%
1.29
Goals for per game
1.35
70.6%
Scoring rate
61.8%
58.8%
BTTS rate
52.9%
1.67
Goals for per game
3.33
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
65
History Matches
62
1.15
Goals Mean
1.60
1.24
Goals Std
1.46
63.1%
Scored 1+ rate
71.0%
32.3%
Scored 2+ rate
50.0%
12.3%
Scored 3+ rate
21.0%
1.29
Venue Goals Mean
1.35
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.68
Goals against per game
1.81
86.2%
Conceding rate
83.9%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
82.4%
Conceding rate
91.2%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
65
History Matches
62
1.68
Conceded Mean
1.81
1.22
Conceded Std
1.32
49.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.6%
21.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.0%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
36.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
8.8%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
38.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
36.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.0%
17.6%
Clean-sheet rate
8.8%
29.4%
Failed-to-score rate
38.2%
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
16.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
62
0.95
Result entropy
0.94
1.76
Goal Difference Std
2.08
4.75
Stability score
5.91
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
62
14
Lead Matches
15
57.1%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.69
Lead Points Retention
0.87
32
Trailing Matches
27
25.0%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
9.4%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
62
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.86
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.97
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.82
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
84.04
Rest days
84.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.83
35
Normal Rest History Matches
38
0.74
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.21
25
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.12
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.18
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
3.00
66.7%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.67
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.72
1.43
Portability PPG Range
2.00
49.77
Portability Score
41.08
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-27.01
PPG-0.34
GF-0.44
GA-0.13
PPG-1.00
PPG0.06
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate7.9%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate8.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches3
Goals Mean-0.44
Goals Std-0.22
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.18
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.56
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.95
History Matches3
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.32
Stability score-1.16
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.16
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.18
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate2.8%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.57
Portability Score8.70
Rest days-0.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.08
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.47
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Current Team ELO-27.01
Current Opponent ELO27.01
Current ELO Difference-54.01
Expected score-0.08
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.07

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

NAC Breda

D
Dordrecht0–0NAC Breda6 Nov · away
Pick: Dordrecht 43% · missed
W
Jong PSV U210–2NAC Breda2 Nov · away
Pick: Jong PSV U21 42% · missed
W
JOS Watergraafsmeer1–3NAC Breda28 Oct · away
Pick: NAC Breda 42% · hit
D
NAC Breda1–1Heracles23 Oct · home
Pick: Heracles 41% · missed
W
Helmond Sport0–2NAC Breda16 Oct · away
Pick: Helmond Sport 39% · missed

Emmen

W
Groningen0–2Emmen29 Oct · away
Pick: Groningen 46% · missed
W
Vitesse0–2Emmen23 Oct · away
Pick: Vitesse 41% · missed
W
Emmen2–1Almere City FC17 Oct · home
Pick: Almere City FC 37% · missed
L
VVV Venlo4–0Emmen30 Aug · away
Pick: VVV Venlo 45% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

NAC Breda and Emmen meet in Eerste Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at Rat Verlegh Stadion, Breda. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: NAC Breda win 33.4%, draw 28.1%, Emmen win 38.5%. The pick is Emmen win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.9%. Both teams to score: 59.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.