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Eerste Divisie Netherlands Round 15 2026

VVV Venlo vs FC Eindhoven

VVV Venlo Home · Elo 1,462
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Eindhoven Away · Elo 1,458
Seacon - De Koel, Venlo Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: VVV Venlo win
VVV Venlo winPick
49.8%
Draw
23.8%
FC Eindhoven win
26.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.0%
No39.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.7%
Under 2.534.3%

How much we know

VVV Venlo history70 matches
FC Eindhoven history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 10 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 19:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.8%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why VVV Venlo are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,462 against 1,458. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.51 goals a game over 70 matches for VVV Venlo, against 1.39 over 70 for FC Eindhoven.

  • Defences are close

    VVV Venlo concede 1.70 a game, FC Eindhoven 1.74.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    69% of VVV Venlo matches, against 61% for FC Eindhoven. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
VVV Venlo
FC Eindhoven@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1462.0
ELO
1458.0
70
ELO · Matches
70
1462.0
Current Team ELO
1458.0
1458.0
Current Opponent ELO
1462.0
4.06
Current ELO Difference
-4.06
0.51
Expected score
0.49
70
History Matches
70
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.04
48.49
Overperformance
47.01
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
0.60
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
0.90
2.10
Goals for per game
1.20
2.00
Goals against per game
1.90
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.20
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.87
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.48
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.70
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.22
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
70
Matches
70
1.29
PPG
1.23
37.1%
Win rate
34.3%
17.1%
Draw rate
20.0%
45.7%
Loss rate
45.7%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.7%
68.6%
Over 2.5 rate
61.4%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
39
1.47
PPG
1.05
44.7%
Win rate
28.2%
13.2%
Draw rate
20.5%
42.1%
Loss rate
51.3%
78.9%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
68.4%
Over 2.5 rate
56.4%
42.1%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
2.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
38
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.51
Goals for per game
1.39
70.0%
Scoring rate
74.3%
54.3%
BTTS rate
51.4%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.15
73.7%
Scoring rate
69.2%
57.9%
BTTS rate
51.3%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
70
History Matches
70
1.51
Goals Mean
1.39
1.44
Goals Std
1.15
70.0%
Scored 1+ rate
74.3%
47.1%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
21.4%
Scored 3+ rate
15.7%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.15
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.70
Goals against per game
1.74
80.0%
Conceding rate
74.3%
1.61
Goals against per game
1.82
81.6%
Conceding rate
79.5%
1.67
Goals against per game
2.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
70
History Matches
70
1.70
Conceded Mean
1.74
1.39
Conceded Std
1.46
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.3%
25.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.1%
1.61
Venue Conceded Mean
1.82
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
30.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.7%
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
26.3%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
70
History Matches
70
0.94
Result entropy
0.95
2.15
Goal Difference Std
1.94
6.43
Stability score
4.72
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
70
Eligible Matches
70
17
Lead Matches
19
82.4%
Lead Win Rate
52.6%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.61
28
Trailing Matches
22
17.9%
Non-loss rate
18.2%
3.6%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.47
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.71
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.96
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.18
Rest days
85.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
7
0.63
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.29
43
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.02
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.16
18
Long Rest History Matches
19
2.11
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.79
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
1.00
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
6
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.14
0.82
Portability PPG Range
0.40
62.85
Portability Score
78.73
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
70
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO4.06
PPG0.06
GF0.13
GA-0.04
PPG1.00
PPG0.42
PPG0.60
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate4.3%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.13
Goals Std0.29
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate4.3%
Scored 3+ rate5.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.56
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.04
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.22
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.21
Stability score1.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.33
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate29.7%
Lead Points Retention0.27
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate0.00
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.67
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.42
Portability Score-15.87
Rest days-1.86
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.34
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.32
Current Team ELO4.06
Current Opponent ELO-4.06
Current ELO Difference8.12
Expected score0.01
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.48
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

VVV Venlo

D
VVV Venlo1–1Jong PSV U216 Nov · home
Pick: VVV Venlo 48% · missed
W
MVV1–2VVV Venlo31 Oct · away
Pick: MVV 47% · missed
L
VVV Venlo0–2Vitesse28 Oct · home
Pick: VVV Venlo 46% · missed
W
Dordrecht2–4VVV Venlo24 Oct · away
Pick: Dordrecht 37% · missed
D
VVV Venlo4–4Jong AZ16 Oct · home
Pick: VVV Venlo 55% · missed

FC Eindhoven

L
FC Eindhoven0–3Jong Ajax6 Nov · home
Pick: FC Eindhoven 56% · missed
L
Helmond Sport3–2FC Eindhoven30 Oct · away
Pick: Helmond Sport 47% · hit
W
FC Eindhoven5–3FC Volendam27 Oct · home
Pick: FC Volendam 40% · missed
L
FC Eindhoven1–2Jong PSV U2123 Oct · home
Pick: FC Eindhoven 39% · missed
L
FC Eindhoven0–1Vitesse16 Oct · home
Pick: Vitesse 40% · hit

About this match

VVV Venlo and FC Eindhoven meet in Eerste Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 19:00 UTC. The match is played at Seacon - De Koel, Venlo. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: VVV Venlo win 49.8%, draw 23.8%, FC Eindhoven win 26.4%. The pick is VVV Venlo win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.7%. Both teams to score: 61.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.