Deportivo La Coruña II vs Barakaldo
Match result probability Model pick: Deportivo La Coruña II win
Deportivo La Coruña II winPick
43.8%
Draw
26.8%
Barakaldo win
29.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes49.3%
No50.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.549.2%
Under 2.550.8%
How much we know
Deportivo La Coruña II history56 matches
Barakaldo history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Deportivo La Coruña II
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 17:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (43.8%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Deportivo La Coruña II are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Deportivo La Coruña II are rated 87 Elo points higher
Elo 1,609 against 1,522. On rating alone Deportivo La Coruña II would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.
-
Deportivo La Coruña II score more
1.66 goals a game over 56 matches for Deportivo La Coruña II, against 1.21 over 61 for Barakaldo.
-
Deportivo La Coruña II concede fewer
Deportivo La Coruña II concede 0.75 a game, Barakaldo 1.15.
-
Deportivo La Coruña II games more often go over 2.5 goals
55% of Deportivo La Coruña II matches, against 44% for Barakaldo. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 14 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Barakaldo@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1608.6
ELO
1521.7
56
ELO · Matches
61
1608.6
Current Team ELO
1521.7
1521.7
Current Opponent ELO
1608.6
86.96
Current ELO Difference
-86.96
0.62
Expected score
0.38
56
History Matches
61
0.09
Residual Mean
0.01
57.00
Overperformance
51.11
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
1.40
1.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.40
2.10
Goals for per game
1.30
0.80
Goals against per game
1.10
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.45
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.35
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.89
Overall performance9 signals 90
56
Matches
61
1.86
PPG
1.28
53.6%
Win rate
32.8%
25.0%
Draw rate
29.5%
21.4%
Loss rate
37.7%
66.1%
Over 1.5 rate
75.4%
55.4%
Over 2.5 rate
44.3%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
16.4%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
Venue performance10 signals 100
28
Matches
32
1.79
PPG
0.81
53.6%
Win rate
15.6%
17.9%
Draw rate
34.4%
28.6%
Loss rate
50.0%
57.1%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.6%
7.1%
Over 3.5 rate
15.6%
1.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
28
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.66
Goals for per game
1.21
71.4%
Scoring rate
68.9%
39.3%
BTTS rate
54.1%
1.32
Goals for per game
0.94
57.1%
Scoring rate
59.4%
32.1%
BTTS rate
53.1%
56
History Matches
61
1.66
Goals Mean
1.21
1.41
Goals Std
1.10
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
68.9%
53.6%
Scored 2+ rate
37.7%
26.8%
Scored 3+ rate
9.8%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.75
Goals against per game
1.15
51.8%
Conceding rate
77.0%
0.68
Goals against per game
1.34
57.1%
Conceding rate
87.5%
56
History Matches
61
0.75
Conceded Mean
1.15
0.87
Conceded Std
0.81
17.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.4%
5.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.3%
0.68
Venue Conceded Mean
1.34
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
48.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
31.1%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.6%
48.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
31.1%
42.9%
Clean-sheet rate
12.5%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
40.6%
48.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
56
History Matches
61
0.92
Result entropy
1.00
1.71
Goal Difference Std
1.42
7.97
Stability score
0.46
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
56
Eligible Matches
61
22
Lead Matches
13
90.9%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.82
10
Trailing Matches
18
50.0%
Non-loss rate
38.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals 50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.39
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.54
0.91
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.61
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
98.01
Rest days
92.09
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.94
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.31
22
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.30
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.78
Portability PPG Std
0.28
1.78
Portability PPG Range
0.64
39.15
Portability Score
64.27
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
56
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO86.96
PPG0.58
GF0.45
GA-0.40
PPG0.97
PPG-0.60
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate25.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate30.4%
Failed-to-score rate2.2%
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.45
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate2.6%
Scored 2+ rate15.9%
Scored 3+ rate16.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.10
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.40
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate25.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate2.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.67
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.05
History Matches-5
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.29
Stability score7.51
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.04
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches9
Lead Win Rate14.0%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate11.1%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean0.26
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.50
Portability PPG Range1.15
Portability Score-25.12
Rest days5.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.63
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.34
Current Team ELO86.96
Current Opponent ELO-86.96
Current ELO Difference173.9
Expected score0.25
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.89
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Deportivo La Coruña II
W
Zamora1–3Deportivo La Coruña II1 Nov · away
Pick: Zamora 42% · missed L
Deportivo La Coruña II0–5Extremadura 192424 Oct · home
Pick: Deportivo La Coruña II 41% · missed L
Lugo3–0Deportivo La Coruña II17 Oct · away
Pick: Lugo 42% · hit L
UD Logroñés2–1Deportivo La Coruña II4 Oct · away
Pick: UD Logroñés 48% · hit L
Mérida AD1–0Deportivo La Coruña II29 Aug · away
Pick: Mérida AD 41% · hit Barakaldo
W
Barakaldo2–0Real Unión7 Nov · home
Pick: Barakaldo 43% · hit D
Barakaldo0–0Pontevedra1 Nov · home
Pick: Pontevedra 44% · missed D
Ponferradina0–0Barakaldo24 Oct · away
Pick: Ponferradina 50% · missed W
Barakaldo2–0Mirandes17 Oct · home
Pick: Mirandes 41% · missed D
Barakaldo0–0Cultural Leonesa30 Aug · home
Pick: Cultural Leonesa 41% · missed About this match
Deportivo La Coruña II and Barakaldo meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Deportivo La Coruña II win 43.8%, draw 26.8%, Barakaldo win 29.4%. The pick is Deportivo La Coruña II win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.2%. Both teams to score: 49.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.