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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain Group 1 - 12 2026

UD Ourense vs Mérida AD

UD Ourense Home · Elo 1,604
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Mérida AD Away · Elo 1,495
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Mérida AD win
UD Ourense win
32.6%
Draw
32.1%
Mérida AD winPick
35.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.2%
No49.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.5%
Under 2.551.5%

How much we know

UD Ourense history56 matches
Mérida AD history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.3%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Mérida AD are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • UD Ourense are rated 109 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,604 against 1,495. On rating alone UD Ourense would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.29 goals a game over 56 matches for UD Ourense, against 1.22 over 65 for Mérida AD.

  • UD Ourense concede fewer

    UD Ourense concede 0.84 a game, Mérida AD 1.45.

  • Mérida AD games more often go over 2.5 goals

    32% of UD Ourense matches, against 54% for Mérida AD. The model puts this match at 49% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 15 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
UD Ourense
Mérida AD@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1603.9
ELO
1495.2
56
ELO · Matches
65
1603.9
Current Team ELO
1495.2
1495.2
Current Opponent ELO
1603.9
108.7
Current ELO Difference
-108.7
0.65
Expected score
0.35
56
History Matches
65
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.01
57.19
Overperformance
49.36
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.80
0.40
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
1.00
1.30
Goals for per game
0.70
0.70
Goals against per game
1.80
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.08
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
56
Matches
65
1.80
PPG
1.35
50.0%
Win rate
36.9%
30.4%
Draw rate
24.6%
19.6%
Loss rate
38.5%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
32.1%
Over 2.5 rate
53.8%
16.1%
Over 3.5 rate
24.6%
1.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
34
2.07
PPG
0.94
60.0%
Win rate
23.5%
26.7%
Draw rate
23.5%
13.3%
Loss rate
52.9%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
85.3%
36.7%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
13.3%
Over 3.5 rate
20.6%
1.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
30
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.29
Goals for per game
1.22
80.4%
Scoring rate
72.3%
46.4%
BTTS rate
52.3%
1.43
Goals for per game
0.94
86.7%
Scoring rate
64.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
56
History Matches
65
1.29
Goals Mean
1.22
0.98
Goals Std
1.02
80.4%
Scored 1+ rate
72.3%
32.1%
Scored 2+ rate
35.4%
14.3%
Scored 3+ rate
12.3%
1.43
Venue Goals Mean
0.94
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.84
Goals against per game
1.45
60.7%
Conceding rate
73.8%
0.77
Goals against per game
1.68
60.0%
Conceding rate
82.4%
56
History Matches
65
0.84
Conceded Mean
1.45
0.86
Conceded Std
1.22
16.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.1%
7.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
0.77
Venue Conceded Mean
1.68
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
19.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.7%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
19.6%
Failed-to-score rate
27.7%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
17.6%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
26.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
56
History Matches
65
0.94
Result entropy
0.98
1.34
Goal Difference Std
1.75
6.41
Stability score
1.65
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
56
Eligible Matches
65
19
Lead Matches
21
78.9%
Lead Win Rate
90.5%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.94
14
Trailing Matches
21
42.9%
Non-loss rate
23.8%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
56
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.55
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.73
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.57
0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
166.9
Rest days
91.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
35
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.80
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.26
18
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
6
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.36
0.88
Portability PPG Range
0.86
57.78
Portability Score
57.97
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
56
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO108.7
PPG0.45
GF0.07
GA-0.61
PPG1.13
PPG1.00
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate13.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate22.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-9
Goals Mean0.07
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate8.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate2.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.20
History Matches-9
Conceded Mean-0.61
Conceded Std-0.35
Clean-sheet rate13.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.27
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.91
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.18
History Matches-9
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.42
Stability score4.76
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.44
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate19.0%
Trailing Win Rate14.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals For Mean0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.46
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range0.02
Portability Score-0.18
Rest days75.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.50
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.54
Long Rest History Matches-10
Long Rest Points Per Match0.33
Current Team ELO108.7
Current Opponent ELO-108.7
Current ELO Difference217.4
Expected score0.30
History Matches-9
Residual Mean0.11
Overperformance7.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.35

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

UD Ourense

L
Pontevedra1–0UD Ourense7 Nov · away
Pick: Pontevedra 46% · hit
W
UD Ourense1–0Cultural Leonesa1 Nov · home
Pick: UD Ourense 39% · hit
L
Arenas Getxo2–0UD Ourense24 Oct · away
Pick: Arenas Getxo 39% · hit
L
Real Avilés3–0UD Ourense18 Oct · away
Pick: Real Avilés 46% · hit
L
UD Ourense0–1Ponferradina29 Aug · home
Pick: Ponferradina 37% · hit

Mérida AD

L
Lugo2–1Mérida AD1 Nov · away
Pick: Mérida AD 40% · missed
D
Mérida AD0–0CD Coria25 Oct · home
Pick: Mérida AD 46% · missed
W
Arenas Getxo0–4Mérida AD18 Oct · away
Pick: Mérida AD 39% · hit
W
Mérida AD2–0Cacereño4 Oct · home
Pick: Mérida AD 46% · hit
W
Mérida AD1–0Deportivo La Coruña II29 Aug · home
Pick: Mérida AD 41% · hit

About this match

UD Ourense and Mérida AD meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: UD Ourense win 32.6%, draw 32.1%, Mérida AD win 35.3%. The pick is Mérida AD win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.5%. Both teams to score: 50.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.