Athletic Club II vs Racing Ferrol
Match result probability Model pick: Athletic Club II win
Athletic Club II winPick
49.9%
Draw
26.3%
Racing Ferrol win
23.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes49.5%
No50.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.2%
Under 2.549.8%
How much we know
Athletic Club II history68 matches
Racing Ferrol history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Athletic Club II
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 11:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 12:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.9%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Athletic Club II are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Athletic Club II are rated 74 Elo points higher
Elo 1,529 against 1,455. On rating alone Athletic Club II would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.
-
Athletic Club II score more
1.22 goals a game over 68 matches for Athletic Club II, against 0.86 over 65 for Racing Ferrol.
-
Defences are close
Athletic Club II concede 1.21 a game, Racing Ferrol 1.34.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
44% of Athletic Club II matches, against 45% for Racing Ferrol. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 19 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Racing Ferrol@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1529.5
ELO
1455.4
68
ELO · Matches
65
1529.5
Current Team ELO
1455.4
1455.4
Current Opponent ELO
1529.5
74.09
Current ELO Difference
-74.09
0.61
Expected score
0.39
68
History Matches
65
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.03
51.22
Overperformance
47.44
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.80
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
0.20
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.90
1.20
Goals for per game
0.90
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
50.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.18
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.56
Overall performance9 signals 90
68
Matches
65
1.47
PPG
1.08
41.2%
Win rate
27.7%
23.5%
Draw rate
24.6%
35.3%
Loss rate
47.7%
67.6%
Over 1.5 rate
63.1%
44.1%
Over 2.5 rate
44.6%
22.1%
Over 3.5 rate
18.5%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
Venue performance10 signals 100
32
Matches
33
1.66
PPG
0.97
46.9%
Win rate
27.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
15.2%
28.1%
Loss rate
57.6%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
40.6%
Over 2.5 rate
48.5%
18.8%
Over 3.5 rate
15.2%
1.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.37
32
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.22
Goals for per game
0.86
79.4%
Scoring rate
61.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
44.6%
1.25
Goals for per game
0.82
81.3%
Scoring rate
66.7%
46.9%
BTTS rate
45.5%
68
History Matches
65
1.22
Goals Mean
0.86
0.92
Goals Std
0.84
79.4%
Scored 1+ rate
61.5%
32.4%
Scored 2+ rate
20.0%
7.4%
Scored 3+ rate
4.6%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
0.82
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.21
Goals against per game
1.34
63.2%
Conceding rate
70.8%
0.97
Goals against per game
1.45
56.3%
Conceding rate
69.7%
68
History Matches
65
1.21
Conceded Mean
1.34
1.28
Conceded Std
1.15
38.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.1%
10.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.4%
0.97
Venue Conceded Mean
1.45
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
20.6%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
30.3%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
29.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
68
History Matches
65
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
1.58
Goal Difference Std
1.44
2.30
Stability score
4.08
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
68
Eligible Matches
65
17
Lead Matches
13
70.6%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.73
Lead Points Retention
0.82
12
Trailing Matches
26
8.3%
Non-loss rate
15.4%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals 50
68
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.50
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.46
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
87.79
Rest days
92.79
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
42
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.24
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.91
23
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.70
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.18
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.75
Portability PPG Std
0.35
2.25
Portability PPG Range
0.79
39.94
Portability Score
58.91
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
68
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO74.09
PPG0.39
GF0.36
GA-0.13
PPG0.69
PPG1.60
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate7.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate13.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.36
Goals Std0.08
Scored 1+ rate17.9%
Scored 2+ rate12.4%
Scored 3+ rate2.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.43
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.15
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.13
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate7.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.49
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.32
History Matches3
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score-1.79
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.27
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches-14
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean0.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.40
Portability PPG Range1.46
Portability Score-18.97
Rest days-5.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.50
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.33
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.52
Current Team ELO74.09
Current Opponent ELO-74.09
Current ELO Difference148.2
Expected score0.21
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Athletic Club II
W
Athletic Club II3–1Cacereño31 Oct · home
Pick: Athletic Club II 50% · hit L
Unionistas de Salamanca2–1Athletic Club II24 Oct · away
Pick: Athletic Club II 39% · missed L
CD Coria2–1Athletic Club II18 Oct · away
Pick: CD Coria 38% · hit L
Athletic Club II1–3Extremadura 19244 Oct · home
Pick: Athletic Club II 45% · missed D
Zamora1–1Athletic Club II29 Aug · away
Pick: Athletic Club II 38% · missed Racing Ferrol
L
Racing Ferrol1–2UD Logroñés7 Nov · home
Pick: UD Logroñés 36% · hit D
Racing Ferrol0–0Ponferradina31 Oct · home
Pick: Ponferradina 46% · missed L
Mirandes2–0Racing Ferrol24 Oct · away
Pick: Mirandes 47% · hit W
Racing Ferrol1–0Unionistas de Salamanca17 Oct · home
Pick: Racing Ferrol 38% · hit D
Arenas Getxo1–1Racing Ferrol29 Aug · away
Pick: Arenas Getxo 40% · missed About this match
Athletic Club II and Racing Ferrol meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Lezama Facilities. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Athletic Club II win 49.9%, draw 26.3%, Racing Ferrol win 23.8%. The pick is Athletic Club II win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.2%. Both teams to score: 49.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.