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Primera División RFEF - Group 1 Spain Group 1 - 12 2026

Real Unión vs Cultural Leonesa

Real Unión Home · Elo 1,607
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Cultural Leonesa Away · Elo 1,444
Stadium Gal, Irun Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Cultural Leonesa win
Real Unión win
34.2%
Draw
23.7%
Cultural Leonesa winPick
42.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.1%
No45.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.557.0%
Under 2.543.0%

How much we know

Real Unión history55 matches
Cultural Leonesa history75 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.1%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Cultural Leonesa are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Real Unión are rated 163 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,607 against 1,444. On rating alone Real Unión would be expected to take 72% of the points on offer.

  • Real Unión score more

    1.58 goals a game over 55 matches for Real Unión, against 1.17 over 75 for Cultural Leonesa.

  • Real Unión concede fewer

    Real Unión concede 1.13 a game, Cultural Leonesa 1.48.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    53% of Real Unión matches, against 45% for Cultural Leonesa. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Real Unión
Cultural Leonesa@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1607.3
ELO
1444.2
55
ELO · Matches
75
1607.3
Current Team ELO
1444.2
1444.2
Current Opponent ELO
1607.3
163.1
Current ELO Difference
-163.1
0.72
Expected score
0.28
55
History Matches
75
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.04
57.03
Overperformance
46.69
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.10
2.10
Goals for per game
1.30
1.70
Goals against per game
1.20
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.14
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.42
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
75
1.73
PPG
1.12
49.1%
Win rate
28.0%
25.5%
Draw rate
28.0%
25.5%
Loss rate
44.0%
72.7%
Over 1.5 rate
72.0%
52.7%
Over 2.5 rate
45.3%
32.7%
Over 3.5 rate
25.3%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
40
1.89
PPG
0.88
51.9%
Win rate
20.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
27.5%
14.8%
Loss rate
52.5%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
45.0%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
27
History Matches
40
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.58
Goals for per game
1.17
80.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
56.4%
BTTS rate
54.7%
1.85
Goals for per game
1.08
81.5%
Scoring rate
65.0%
51.9%
BTTS rate
57.5%
55
History Matches
75
1.58
Goals Mean
1.17
1.25
Goals Std
1.23
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
43.6%
Scored 2+ rate
28.0%
25.5%
Scored 3+ rate
13.3%
1.85
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.13
Goals against per game
1.48
67.3%
Conceding rate
82.7%
0.85
Goals against per game
1.60
59.3%
Conceding rate
90.0%
55
History Matches
75
1.13
Conceded Mean
1.48
1.13
Conceded Std
1.14
25.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.3%
0.85
Venue Conceded Mean
1.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.3%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
40.7%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
17.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
75
0.95
Result entropy
0.98
1.70
Goal Difference Std
1.63
4.80
Stability score
2.23
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
75
16
Lead Matches
18
68.8%
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.72
9
Trailing Matches
26
11.1%
Non-loss rate
19.2%
11.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
75
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.36
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
1.05
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
98.25
Rest days
84.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
4
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.75
33
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.11
21
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.96
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.56
0.97
Portability PPG Range
1.62
50.75
Portability Score
47.28
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
75
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO163.1
PPG0.61
GF0.41
GA-0.35
PPG1.01
PPG0.40
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate30.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches-20
Goals Mean0.41
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate13.3%
Scored 2+ rate15.6%
Scored 3+ rate12.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.78
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.28
History Matches-20
Conceded Mean-0.35
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate15.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.15
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.67
History Matches-20
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score2.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.38
Eligible Matches-20
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate2.1%
Lead Points Retention0.05
Trailing Matches-17
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate11.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-20
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.65
Portability Score3.46
Rest days13.33
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.52
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match0.85
Current Team ELO163.1
Current Opponent ELO-163.1
Current ELO Difference326.2
Expected score0.44
History Matches-20
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance10.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Real Unión

L
Barakaldo2–0Real Unión7 Nov · away
Pick: Barakaldo 43% · hit
L
Real Unión0–3Real Avilés31 Oct · home
Pick: Real Avilés 40% · hit
W
Real Unión4–1Lugo23 Oct · home
Pick: Real Unión 41% · hit
D
Extremadura 19242–2Real Unión17 Oct · away
Pick: Extremadura 1924 44% · missed
W
Real Unión4–1CD Coria30 Aug · home
Pick: CD Coria 40% · missed

Cultural Leonesa

L
UD Ourense1–0Cultural Leonesa1 Nov · away
Pick: UD Ourense 39% · hit
W
Gimnástica Segoviana0–1Cultural Leonesa27 Oct · away
Pick: Cultural Leonesa 43% · hit
L
Cultural Leonesa1–2Pontevedra24 Oct · home
Pick: Cultural Leonesa 44% · missed
D
UD Logroñés1–1Cultural Leonesa18 Oct · away
Pick: UD Logroñés 43% · missed
W
Cultural Leonesa4–1Arenas Getxo12 Oct · home
Pick: Cultural Leonesa 50% · hit

About this match

Real Unión and Cultural Leonesa meet in Primera División RFEF - Group 1 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at Stadium Gal, Irun. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Real Unión win 34.2%, draw 23.7%, Cultural Leonesa win 42.1%. The pick is Cultural Leonesa win. Over 2.5 goals: 57.0%. Both teams to score: 54.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.