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3. SNL - East Slovenia East - 14 2026

Dobrovce vs Ljutomer

Dobrovce Home · Elo 1,388
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Ljutomer Away · Elo 1,454
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ljutomer win
Dobrovce win
28.4%
Draw
23.3%
Ljutomer winPick
48.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.1%
No41.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.565.0%
Under 2.535.0%

How much we know

Dobrovce history19 matches
Ljutomer history20 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.3%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Ljutomer are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ljutomer are rated 67 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,454 against 1,388. On rating alone Ljutomer would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Ljutomer score far more

    0.79 goals a game over 19 matches for Dobrovce, against 1.65 over 20 for Ljutomer.

  • Ljutomer concede fewer

    Dobrovce concede 2.63 a game, Ljutomer 2.20.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    68% of Dobrovce matches, against 65% for Ljutomer. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Dobrovce
Ljutomer@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1387.6
ELO
1454.2
19
ELO · Matches
20
1387.6
Current Team ELO
1454.2
1454.2
Current Opponent ELO
1387.6
-66.53
Current ELO Difference
66.53
0.41
Expected score
0.59
19
History Matches
20
-0.29
Residual Mean
-0.11
35.95
Overperformance
44.34
-0.20
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.05
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
3.80
2.80
Goals against per game
2.40
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.50
PPG
1.10
1.10
Goals for per game
2.50
2.70
Goals against per game
2.50
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.50
0.94
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.01
2.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.56
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.19
Overall performance9 signals
90
19
Matches
20
0.32
PPG
0.90
5.3%
Win rate
20.0%
15.8%
Draw rate
30.0%
78.9%
Loss rate
50.0%
89.5%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
68.4%
Over 2.5 rate
65.0%
31.6%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
Venue performance10 signals
100
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
0.40
10.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
80.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
90.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.17
10
History Matches
10
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.79
Goals for per game
1.65
52.6%
Scoring rate
75.0%
52.6%
BTTS rate
65.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
60.0%
Scoring rate
70.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
70.0%
0.50
Goals for per game
2.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
19
History Matches
20
0.79
Goals Mean
1.65
0.89
Goals Std
1.71
52.6%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
21.1%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
5.3%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.20
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.63
Goals against per game
2.20
100.0%
Conceding rate
90.0%
2.80
Goals against per game
2.40
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
19
History Matches
20
2.63
Conceded Mean
2.20
1.35
Conceded Std
1.40
73.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
65.0%
57.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
40.0%
2.80
Venue Conceded Mean
2.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
47.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
47.4%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
19
History Matches
20
0.58
Result entropy
0.94
1.50
Goal Difference Std
1.99
42.38
Stability score
6.28
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
19
Eligible Matches
20
4
Lead Matches
2
25.0%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.42
Lead Points Retention
1.00
13
Trailing Matches
8
0.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
19
Halftime Coverage Matches
20
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
1.37
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.95
1.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.20
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.92
Rest days
83.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
9
Normal Rest History Matches
9
0.56
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
8
Long Rest History Matches
10
0.13
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.90
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
3
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
19
Clean History Matches
20
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-66.53
PPG-0.58
GF-0.86
GA0.43
PPG-1.50
PPG0.00
PPG-1.80
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate22.4%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate10.0%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.86
Goals Std-0.82
Scored 1+ rate-0.22
Scored 2+ rate-0.19
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.07
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.43
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate8.7%
Conceded 3+ rate17.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.26
History Matches-1
Result entropy-0.36
Goal Difference Std-0.49
Stability score36.10
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.63
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.75
Lead Points Retention-0.58
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.37
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.44
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.78
Current Team ELO-66.53
Current Opponent ELO66.53
Current ELO Difference-133.1
Expected score-0.19
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.18
Overperformance-8.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Dobrovce

L
Čarda Martjanci3–1Dobrovce31 Oct · away
Pick: Čarda Martjanci 69% · hit
D
Dobrovce1–1Rače28 Oct · home
Pick: Rače 59% · missed
L
Dobrovce3–4Šmartno17 Oct · home
Pick: Šmartno 63% · hit
L
Fužinar5–1Dobrovce29 Aug · away
Pick: Fužinar 83% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Ljutomer

D
Ljutomer2–2Limbuš Pekre31 Oct · home
Pick: Ljutomer 58% · missed
L
Ljutomer0–3Videm28 Oct · home
Pick: Ljutomer 49% · missed
W
Ljutomer3–0Šampion Celje29 Aug · home
Pick: Ljutomer 56% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Dobrovce and Ljutomer meet in 3. SNL - East on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Dobrovce win 28.4%, draw 23.3%, Ljutomer win 48.3%. The pick is Ljutomer win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.0%. Both teams to score: 58.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.