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3. SNL - East Slovenia East - 14 2026

NK Ormoz vs Šmartno

NK Ormoz Home · Elo 1,519
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Šmartno Away · Elo 1,485
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: NK Ormoz win
NK Ormoz winPick
46.5%
Draw
26.4%
Šmartno win
27.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes62.4%
No37.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.6%
Under 2.531.4%

How much we know

NK Ormoz history2 matches
Šmartno history18 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.5%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why NK Ormoz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • NK Ormoz are rated 34 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,519 against 1,485. On rating alone NK Ormoz would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • NK Ormoz score far more

    3.00 goals a game over 2 matches for NK Ormoz, against 1.44 over 18 for Šmartno.

  • Defences are close

    NK Ormoz concede 1.50 a game, Šmartno 1.61.

  • NK Ormoz games more often go over 2.5 goals

    100% of NK Ormoz matches, against 50% for Šmartno. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
NK Ormoz
Šmartno@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1518.9
ELO
1485.2
2
ELO · Matches
18
1518.9
Current Team ELO
1485.2
1485.2
Current Opponent ELO
1518.9
33.73
Current ELO Difference
-33.73
0.55
Expected score
0.45
2
History Matches
18
0.47
Residual Mean
-0.06
54.29
Overperformance
47.12
0.47
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
2
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
1.40
3.00
Goals for per game
1.80
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2
Matches
10
3.00
PPG
1.40
3.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.50
Goals against per game
1.60
100.0%
Win rate
40.0%
3.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.41
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.74
0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
0.50
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.29
Overall performance9 signals
90
2
Matches
18
3.00
PPG
1.11
100.0%
Win rate
27.8%
0.0%
Draw rate
27.8%
0.0%
Loss rate
44.4%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
Venue performance10 signals
100
1
Matches
11
3.00
PPG
1.36
100.0%
Win rate
36.4%
0.0%
Draw rate
27.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
36.4%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
36.4%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.00
1
History Matches
11
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
3.00
Goals for per game
1.44
100.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
100.0%
BTTS rate
55.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.45
100.0%
Scoring rate
81.8%
100.0%
BTTS rate
54.5%
3.00
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2
History Matches
18
3.00
Goals Mean
1.44
1.00
Goals Std
1.26
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
100.0%
Scored 2+ rate
38.9%
50.0%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.45
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
1.61
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.73
100.0%
Conceding rate
63.6%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
50.0%
2
History Matches
18
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.61
0.50
Conceded Std
1.64
50.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.4%
0.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
22.2%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.73
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
36.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
2
History Matches
18
0.00
Result entropy
0.98
0.50
Goal Difference Std
2.06
100.0
Stability score
2.42
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
1
Eligible Matches
17
0
Lead Matches
6
—
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.72
0
Trailing Matches
5
—
Non-loss rate
20.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
1
Halftime Coverage Matches
17
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
1.00
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
83.92
Rest days
83.83
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
1
Normal Rest History Matches
9
3.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.56
0
Long Rest History Matches
8
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Portability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
2
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
0.50
100.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
0.50
1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
1
Competition Season Count
2
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
2
Clean History Matches
18
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per Match
ELO33.73
PPG1.89
GF1.56
GA-0.11
PPG2.50
PPG1.64
PPG1.60
PPG1.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.36
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches-16
Goals Mean1.56
Goals Std-0.26
Scored 1+ rate22.2%
Scored 2+ rate61.1%
Scored 3+ rate33.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.55
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.41
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean-0.11
Conceded Std-1.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.33
Conceded 2+ rate5.6%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Conceded Mean-0.73
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.24
History Matches-16
Result entropy-0.98
Goal Difference Std-1.56
Stability score97.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.96
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.79
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches-6
Trailing Matches-5
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean0.35
First Half Goals Against Mean0.47
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.94
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match2.44
Long Rest History Matches-8
Current Team ELO33.73
Current Opponent ELO-33.73
Current ELO Difference67.46
Expected score0.10
History Matches-16
Residual Mean0.53
Overperformance7.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.44

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

NK Ormoz

W
Videm1–3NK Ormoz31 Oct · away
Pick: Videm 43% · missed
W
Hajdina0–2NK Ormoz28 Oct · away
Pick: Hajdina 43% · missed
L
NK Ormoz1–3Rače24 Oct · home
Pick: Rače 50% · hit
W
NK Ormoz2–0Šampion Celje17 Oct · home
Pick: NK Ormoz 51% · hit
W
Čarda Martjanci1–3NK Ormoz30 Aug · away
Pick: Čarda Martjanci 38% · missed

Šmartno

L
Odranci6–0Šmartno28 Oct · away
Pick: Odranci 53% · hit
W
Dobrovce3–4Šmartno17 Oct · away
Pick: Šmartno 63% · hit
W
Šmartno3–0Videm29 Aug · home
Pick: Šmartno 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

NK Ormoz and Šmartno meet in 3. SNL - East on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: NK Ormoz win 46.5%, draw 26.4%, Šmartno win 27.2%. The pick is NK Ormoz win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.6%. Both teams to score: 62.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.