DVS 33 Ermelo vs Purmersteijn
Match result probability Model pick: DVS 33 Ermelo win
DVS 33 Ermelo winPick
56.2%
Draw
19.3%
Purmersteijn win
24.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes59.0%
No41.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.573.2%
Under 2.526.8%
How much we know
DVS 33 Ermelo history53 matches
Purmersteijn history3 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours DVS 33 Ermelo
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 13:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.2%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why DVS 33 Ermelo are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
DVS 33 Ermelo are rated 33 Elo points higher
Elo 1,533 against 1,500. On rating alone DVS 33 Ermelo would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.60 goals a game over 53 matches for DVS 33 Ermelo, against 1.67 over 3 for Purmersteijn.
-
DVS 33 Ermelo concede fewer
DVS 33 Ermelo concede 1.26 a game, Purmersteijn 3.00.
-
Purmersteijn games more often go over 2.5 goals
57% of DVS 33 Ermelo matches, against 67% for Purmersteijn. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Purmersteijn@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1532.6
ELO
1499.7
53
ELO · Matches
3
1532.6
Current Team ELO
1499.7
1499.7
Current Opponent ELO
1532.6
32.89
Current ELO Difference
-32.89
0.55
Expected score
0.45
53
History Matches
3
0.03
Residual Mean
0.03
52.00
Overperformance
50.34
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
3
0.20
PPG
1.33
0.60
Goals for per game
1.67
1.80
Goals against per game
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
33.3%
10
Matches
3
1.20
PPG
1.33
1.20
Goals for per game
1.67
1.50
Goals against per game
3.00
30.0%
Win rate
33.3%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.67
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
3.00
0.81
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.83
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
1.00
1.19
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.40
Overall performance9 signals 90
53
Matches
3
1.62
PPG
1.33
45.3%
Win rate
33.3%
26.4%
Draw rate
33.3%
28.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
73.6%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
56.6%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
35.8%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.40
Venue performance10 signals 100
26
Matches
1
2.08
PPG
1.00
61.5%
Win rate
0.0%
23.1%
Draw rate
100.0%
15.4%
Loss rate
0.0%
80.8%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
65.4%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
42.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
—
26
History Matches
1
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.60
Goals for per game
1.67
79.2%
Scoring rate
100.0%
47.2%
BTTS rate
100.0%
2.12
Goals for per game
1.00
88.5%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
0.50
Goals for per game
2.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
3
1.60
Goals Mean
1.67
1.25
Goals Std
0.94
79.2%
Scored 1+ rate
100.0%
45.3%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
26.4%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
2.12
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.26
Goals against per game
3.00
60.4%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.00
57.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
3
1.26
Conceded Mean
3.00
1.26
Conceded Std
2.83
43.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
15.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
33.3%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
42.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
42.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
39.6%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
53
History Matches
3
0.97
Result entropy
1.00
1.79
Goal Difference Std
3.40
2.82
Stability score
0.00
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
40
Eligible Matches
2
13
Lead Matches
1
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
1.00
7
Trailing Matches
0
28.6%
Non-loss rate
—
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
—
Goal timing5 signals 50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
2
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
1.50
0.48
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
3.50
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
29
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.69
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
22
Long Rest History Matches
2
1.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
6
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.07
Portability PPG Std
—
0.13
Portability PPG Range
—
88.17
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
53
Clean History Matches
3
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreNon-loss rateTrailing Win RatePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO32.89
PPG0.29
GF-0.06
GA-1.74
PPG-2.00
PPG1.08
PPG-1.13
PPG-0.13
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches50
Clean-sheet rate39.6%
Failed-to-score rate20.8%
History Matches25
Clean-sheet rate42.3%
Failed-to-score rate11.5%
History Matches50
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std0.31
Scored 1+ rate-0.21
Scored 2+ rate11.9%
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean1.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.47
Recent 10 Goals Std0.04
History Matches50
Conceded Mean-1.74
Conceded Std-1.57
Clean-sheet rate39.6%
Conceded 2+ rate10.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-2.02
History Matches50
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-1.61
Stability score2.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-2.21
Eligible Matches38
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate-0.23
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches7
Halftime Coverage Matches38
First Half Goals For Mean-0.80
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.38
Second Half Goals Against Mean-2.75
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.00
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches29
Long Rest History Matches20
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.36
Current Team ELO32.89
Current Opponent ELO-32.89
Current ELO Difference65.79
Expected score0.09
History Matches50
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance1.67
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.14
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
DVS 33 Ermelo
L
VV Scherpenzeel3–1DVS 33 Ermelo7 Nov · away
Pick: VV Scherpenzeel 45% · hit W
DVS 33 Ermelo4–3SVZW24 Oct · home
Pick: DVS 33 Ermelo 57% · hit L
Staphorst2–1DVS 33 Ermelo17 Oct · away
Pick: DVS 33 Ermelo 38% · missed D
ACV1–1DVS 33 Ermelo29 Aug · away
Pick: ACV 52% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Purmersteijn
L
TEC5–2Purmersteijn25 Oct · away
Pick: TEC 60% · hit W
Purmersteijn3–0Sparta Nijkerk17 Oct · home
Pick: Purmersteijn 45% · hit W
Hoogeveen1–2Purmersteijn30 Aug · away
Pick: Hoogeveen 51% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
DVS 33 Ermelo and Purmersteijn meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: DVS 33 Ermelo win 56.2%, draw 19.3%, Purmersteijn win 24.5%. The pick is DVS 33 Ermelo win. Over 2.5 goals: 73.2%. Both teams to score: 59.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.