ScoreProb
Super League Switzerland Round 13 2026

FC Vaduz vs FC Sion

FC Vaduz Home · Elo 1,637
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Sion Away · Elo 1,640
Rheinpark Stadion, Vaduz Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: FC Sion win
FC Vaduz win
37.1%
Draw
25.2%
FC Sion winPick
37.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.5%
No40.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.3%
Under 2.536.7%

How much we know

FC Vaduz history77 matches
FC Sion history74 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.7%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why FC Sion are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,637 against 1,640. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.01 goals a game over 77 matches for FC Vaduz, against 1.86 over 74 for FC Sion.

  • Defences are close

    FC Vaduz concede 1.27 a game, FC Sion 1.34.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of FC Vaduz matches, against 57% for FC Sion. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
FC Vaduz
FC Sion@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1637.5
ELO
1640.5
77
ELO · Matches
74
1637.5
Current Team ELO
1640.5
1640.5
Current Opponent ELO
1637.5
-2.98
Current ELO Difference
2.98
0.50
Expected score
0.50
77
History Matches
74
0.08
Residual Mean
0.09
56.46
Overperformance
57.10
-0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.23
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
2.60
1.80
Goals for per game
3.20
2.80
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.30
1.80
Goals for per game
3.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
3.40
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.80
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.55
Overall performance9 signals
90
77
Matches
74
1.87
PPG
1.62
57.1%
Win rate
43.2%
15.6%
Draw rate
32.4%
27.3%
Loss rate
24.3%
74.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.5%
61.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.8%
40.3%
Over 3.5 rate
37.8%
2.09
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
39
2.14
PPG
1.26
66.7%
Win rate
30.8%
13.9%
Draw rate
33.3%
19.4%
Loss rate
35.9%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
87.2%
63.9%
Over 2.5 rate
59.0%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
46.2%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
36
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.01
Goals for per game
1.86
83.1%
Scoring rate
83.8%
58.4%
BTTS rate
60.8%
1.97
Goals for per game
1.77
86.1%
Scoring rate
82.1%
58.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.75
Goals for per game
2.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
77
History Matches
74
2.01
Goals Mean
1.86
1.83
Goals Std
1.38
83.1%
Scored 1+ rate
83.8%
57.1%
Scored 2+ rate
56.8%
31.2%
Scored 3+ rate
31.1%
1.97
Venue Goals Mean
1.77
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
1.34
72.7%
Conceding rate
71.6%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.74
72.2%
Conceding rate
79.5%
3.00
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
77
History Matches
74
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.34
1.11
Conceded Std
1.21
35.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
39.2%
15.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.9%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
1.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
16.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.2%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
13.9%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
16.9%
Failed-to-score rate
16.2%
27.8%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
13.9%
Failed-to-score rate
17.9%
27.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
77
History Matches
74
0.88
Result entropy
0.98
2.09
Goal Difference Std
1.85
12.27
Stability score
2.46
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
74
29
Lead Matches
27
89.7%
Lead Win Rate
81.5%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.85
16
Trailing Matches
22
25.0%
Non-loss rate
59.1%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
13.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
74
0.92
First Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
0.97
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.99
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.21
Rest days
83.17
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
10
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.70
44
Normal Rest History Matches
41
2.05
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.46
25
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.84
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
2.00
0.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
4
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
9
Competition Season Count
8
7
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.95
Portability PPG Std
0.64
3.00
Portability PPG Range
2.05
34.38
Portability Score
43.78
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
77
Clean History Matches
74
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-2.98
PPG0.25
GF0.15
GA-0.07
PPG-2.00
PPG0.88
PPG-2.40
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate0.7%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate7.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.15
Goals Std0.45
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate0.4%
Scored 3+ rate0.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.82
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std-0.10
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate0.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score9.81
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.82
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate8.2%
Lead Points Retention0.07
Trailing Matches-6
Non-loss rate-0.34
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.92
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.31
Portability PPG Range0.95
Portability Score-9.40
Rest days-6.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.70
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.58
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.11
Current Team ELO-2.98
Current Opponent ELO2.98
Current ELO Difference-5.96
Expected score-0.01
History Matches3
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.63
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.46

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

FC Vaduz

W
Schaan II0–20FC Vaduz3 Nov · away
Pick: FC Vaduz 54% · hit
D
Grasshoppers2–2FC Vaduz31 Oct · away
Pick: Grasshoppers 39% · missed
L
Servette FC2–1FC Vaduz24 Oct · away
Pick: Servette FC 49% · hit
W
FC Vaduz5–2Grasshoppers30 Aug · home
Pick: FC Vaduz 50% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

FC Sion

D
FC Luzern1–1FC Sion31 Oct · away
Pick: FC Sion 47% · missed
W
FC Sion1–0Lausanne25 Oct · home
Pick: FC Sion 51% · hit
W
Cham0–2FC Sion17 Oct · away
Pick: FC Sion 57% · hit
L
FC Sion1–2FC Lugano30 Aug · home
Pick: FC Lugano 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

FC Vaduz and FC Sion meet in Super League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Rheinpark Stadion, Vaduz. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: FC Vaduz win 37.1%, draw 25.2%, FC Sion win 37.7%. The pick is FC Sion win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.3%. Both teams to score: 59.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.