Folkestone Invicta vs Cray Wanderers
Match result probability Model pick: Folkestone Invicta win
Folkestone Invicta winPick
52.8%
Draw
21.2%
Cray Wanderers win
26.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes62.6%
No37.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.566.0%
Under 2.534.0%
How much we know
Folkestone Invicta history77 matches
Cray Wanderers history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Folkestone Invicta
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.8%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.
Why Folkestone Invicta are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Folkestone Invicta are rated 73 Elo points higher
Elo 1,626 against 1,552. On rating alone Folkestone Invicta would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.
-
Folkestone Invicta score more
2.09 goals a game over 77 matches for Folkestone Invicta, against 1.87 over 69 for Cray Wanderers.
-
Folkestone Invicta concede fewer
Folkestone Invicta concede 1.18 a game, Cray Wanderers 1.61.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
61% of Folkestone Invicta matches, against 65% for Cray Wanderers. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Cray Wanderers@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1625.6
ELO
1552.5
77
ELO · Matches
69
1625.6
Current Team ELO
1552.5
1552.5
Current Opponent ELO
1625.6
73.07
Current ELO Difference
-73.07
0.60
Expected score
0.40
77
History Matches
69
0.07
Residual Mean
0.04
55.75
Overperformance
53.36
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
2.00
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.40
1.50
Goals for per game
1.90
1.20
Goals against per game
1.70
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.42
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals 90
77
Matches
69
1.91
PPG
1.58
57.1%
Win rate
42.0%
19.5%
Draw rate
31.9%
23.4%
Loss rate
26.1%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
91.3%
61.0%
Over 2.5 rate
65.2%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
44.9%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals 100
36
Matches
32
2.11
PPG
1.34
63.9%
Win rate
34.4%
19.4%
Draw rate
31.3%
16.7%
Loss rate
34.4%
86.1%
Over 1.5 rate
90.6%
61.1%
Over 2.5 rate
62.5%
36.1%
Over 3.5 rate
40.6%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
36
History Matches
32
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.09
Goals for per game
1.87
88.3%
Scoring rate
88.4%
59.7%
BTTS rate
72.5%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.66
91.7%
Scoring rate
87.5%
55.6%
BTTS rate
71.9%
77
History Matches
69
2.09
Goals Mean
1.87
1.53
Goals Std
1.20
88.3%
Scored 1+ rate
88.4%
62.3%
Scored 2+ rate
56.5%
29.9%
Scored 3+ rate
30.4%
2.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.66
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.18
Goals against per game
1.61
67.5%
Conceding rate
81.2%
1.03
Goals against per game
1.78
61.1%
Conceding rate
84.4%
77
History Matches
69
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.61
1.10
Conceded Std
1.40
35.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.9%
11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.8%
1.03
Venue Conceded Mean
1.78
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
11.7%
Failed-to-score rate
11.6%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
32.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
11.7%
Failed-to-score rate
11.6%
38.9%
Clean-sheet rate
15.6%
8.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
32.5%
Clean-sheet rate
18.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
77
History Matches
69
0.89
Result entropy
0.98
1.88
Goal Difference Std
1.91
10.96
Stability score
1.76
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
76
Eligible Matches
68
31
Lead Matches
27
93.5%
Lead Win Rate
74.1%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.79
17
Trailing Matches
15
35.3%
Non-loss rate
46.7%
5.9%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.99
First Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
1.12
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.88
0.54
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.03
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.33
68
Normal Rest History Matches
58
1.87
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.59
4
Long Rest History Matches
7
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.86
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
7
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.45
Portability PPG Std
0.47
1.15
Portability PPG Range
1.25
52.42
Portability Score
51.60
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
77
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO73.07
PPG0.33
GF0.22
GA-0.43
PPG0.77
PPG0.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches8
Clean-sheet rate13.6%
Failed-to-score rate0.1%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate23.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches8
Goals Mean0.22
Goals Std0.33
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate5.8%
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.68
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.42
History Matches8
Conceded Mean-0.43
Conceded Std-0.29
Clean-sheet rate13.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.34
History Matches8
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score9.20
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.27
Eligible Matches8
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate19.5%
Lead Points Retention0.16
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.11
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches8
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.49
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score0.82
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match1.67
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.28
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.61
Current Team ELO73.07
Current Opponent ELO-73.07
Current ELO Difference146.1
Expected score0.21
History Matches8
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.08
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Folkestone Invicta
D
Chesham United2–2Folkestone Invicta31 Oct · away
Pick: Folkestone Invicta 53% · missed L
Tonbridge Angels2–0Folkestone Invicta27 Oct · away
Pick: Folkestone Invicta 42% · missed W
Folkestone Invicta2–0Farnborough24 Oct · home
Pick: Folkestone Invicta 55% · hit W
Folkestone Invicta2–1AFC Totton17 Oct · home
Pick: Folkestone Invicta 55% · hit L
Ebbsfleet United1–0Folkestone Invicta6 Oct · away
Pick: Folkestone Invicta 41% · missed Cray Wanderers
W
Brentwood Town1–4Cray Wanderers31 Oct · away
Pick: Cray Wanderers 43% · hit W
Berkhamsted1–2Cray Wanderers24 Oct · away
Pick: Cray Wanderers 39% · hit D
Bedford Town0–0Cray Wanderers17 Oct · away
Pick: Bedford Town 44% · missed W
Cray Wanderers4–1Welling United31 Aug · home
Pick: Welling United 43% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Folkestone Invicta and Cray Wanderers meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Folkestone Invicta win 52.8%, draw 21.2%, Cray Wanderers win 26.0%. The pick is Folkestone Invicta win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.0%. Both teams to score: 62.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.