Gossau vs Collina d'Oro
Match result probability Model pick: Collina d'Oro win
Gossau win
34.6%
Draw
26.8%
Collina d'Oro winPick
38.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes56.1%
No43.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.0%
Under 2.545.0%
How much we know
Gossau history11 matches
Collina d'Oro history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Collina d'Oro
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (38.5%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Collina d'Oro are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,478 against 1,502. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Collina d'Oro score more
1.27 goals a game over 11 matches for Gossau, against 1.67 over 51 for Collina d'Oro.
-
Collina d'Oro concede fewer
Gossau concede 1.82 a game, Collina d'Oro 1.25.
-
Gossau games more often go over 2.5 goals
73% of Gossau matches, against 61% for Collina d'Oro. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Collina d'Oro@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1478.3
ELO
1501.6
11
ELO · Matches
51
1478.3
Current Team ELO
1501.6
1501.6
Current Opponent ELO
1478.3
-23.32
Current ELO Difference
23.32
0.47
Expected score
0.53
11
History Matches
51
-0.12
Residual Mean
0.01
45.63
Overperformance
50.41
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.40
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.00
1.30
Goals for per game
1.10
1.60
Goals against per game
1.30
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.94
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals 90
11
Matches
51
1.00
PPG
1.47
27.3%
Win rate
39.2%
18.2%
Draw rate
29.4%
54.5%
Loss rate
31.4%
90.9%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
72.7%
Over 2.5 rate
60.8%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
29.4%
1.23
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals 100
4
Matches
24
1.25
PPG
1.33
25.0%
Win rate
33.3%
50.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
25.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
79.2%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
41.7%
0.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.67
4
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.27
Goals for per game
1.67
81.8%
Scoring rate
78.4%
81.8%
BTTS rate
58.8%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.75
75.0%
Scoring rate
87.5%
75.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
11
History Matches
51
1.27
Goals Mean
1.67
0.86
Goals Std
1.41
81.8%
Scored 1+ rate
78.4%
36.4%
Scored 2+ rate
51.0%
9.1%
Scored 3+ rate
21.6%
1.25
Venue Goals Mean
1.75
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.82
Goals against per game
1.25
90.9%
Conceding rate
72.5%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.58
75.0%
Conceding rate
83.3%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
11
History Matches
51
1.82
Conceded Mean
1.25
1.03
Conceded Std
1.08
63.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.3%
18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.7%
1.25
Venue Conceded Mean
1.58
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
18.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.6%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
27.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
11
History Matches
51
0.91
Result entropy
0.99
1.23
Goal Difference Std
1.89
9.44
Stability score
0.72
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
8
Eligible Matches
43
1
Lead Matches
18
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
61.1%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.74
3
Trailing Matches
10
0.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
8
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.38
First Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.88
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
83.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
3
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
3
Normal Rest History Matches
26
2.33
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.81
7
Long Rest History Matches
21
0.57
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.05
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
0.67
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
66.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
0.67
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.33
5
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.03
Portability PPG Std
0.57
0.07
Portability PPG Range
1.40
93.75
Portability Score
46.63
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
11
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-23.32
PPG-0.47
GF-0.39
GA0.56
PPG0.67
PPG-0.08
PPG-0.40
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-40
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate8.3%
Failed-to-score rate12.5%
History Matches-40
Goals Mean-0.39
Goals Std-0.55
Scored 1+ rate3.4%
Scored 2+ rate-0.15
Scored 3+ rate-0.12
Venue Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.04
History Matches-40
Conceded Mean0.56
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Conceded 2+ rate28.3%
Conceded 3+ rate4.5%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.16
History Matches-40
Result entropy-0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.66
Stability score8.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.40
Eligible Matches-35
Lead Matches-17
Lead Win Rate38.9%
Lead Points Retention0.26
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.20
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-35
First Half Goals For Mean-0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean0.39
Second Half Goals For Mean0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.54
Portability PPG Range-1.33
Portability Score47.12
Rest days0.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest History Matches-23
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.53
Long Rest History Matches-14
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.48
Current Team ELO-23.32
Current Opponent ELO23.32
Current ELO Difference-46.65
Expected score-0.07
History Matches-40
Residual Mean-0.13
Overperformance-4.78
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Gossau
L
Mendrisio4–1Gossau7 Nov · away
Pick: Mendrisio 53% · hit L
Gossau0–3Kosova31 Oct · home
Pick: Kosova 41% · hit L
Thalwil2–1Gossau24 Oct · away
Pick: Thalwil 48% · hit W
Gossau1–0Zug17 Oct · home
Pick: Zug 46% · missed D
Wettswil-Bonstetten2–2Gossau29 Aug · away
Pick: Wettswil-Bonstetten 54% · missed Collina d'Oro
L
Collina d'Oro0–2Taverne7 Nov · home
Pick: Taverne 40% · hit W
Locarno0–2Collina d'Oro31 Oct · away
Pick: Collina d'Oro 39% · hit W
Collina d'Oro1–0Taverne28 Oct · home
Pick: Taverne 40% · missed W
Collina d'Oro2–0Dietikon24 Oct · home
Pick: Collina d'Oro 43% · hit W
Widnau0–1Collina d'Oro30 Aug · away
Pick: Collina d'Oro 46% · hit About this match
Gossau and Collina d'Oro meet in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Gossau win 34.6%, draw 26.8%, Collina d'Oro win 38.5%. The pick is Collina d'Oro win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.0%. Both teams to score: 56.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.