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1. Liga Classic - Group 3 Switzerland Group 3 - 14 2026

Tuggen vs St. Gallen II

Tuggen Home · Elo 1,589
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
St. Gallen II Away · Elo 1,506
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tuggen win
Tuggen winPick
59.0%
Draw
19.3%
St. Gallen II win
21.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.5%
No39.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.570.5%
Under 2.529.5%

How much we know

Tuggen history50 matches
St. Gallen II history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (59.0%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Tuggen are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tuggen are rated 83 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,589 against 1,506. On rating alone Tuggen would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Tuggen score more

    2.10 goals a game over 50 matches for Tuggen, against 1.68 over 50 for St. Gallen II.

  • Tuggen concede fewer

    Tuggen concede 1.50 a game, St. Gallen II 1.78.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    64% of Tuggen matches, against 72% for St. Gallen II. The model puts this match at 70% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Tuggen
St. Gallen II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1589.0
ELO
1506.3
50
ELO · Matches
50
1589.0
Current Team ELO
1506.3
1506.3
Current Opponent ELO
1589.0
82.76
Current ELO Difference
-82.76
0.62
Expected score
0.38
50
History Matches
50
0.09
Residual Mean
0.00
56.41
Overperformance
49.96
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.24
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
2.00
Goals for per game
2.20
1.80
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
2.00
2.60
Goals for per game
2.20
1.50
Goals against per game
1.90
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.69
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.98
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.37
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.10
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
50
1.86
PPG
1.40
56.0%
Win rate
40.0%
18.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
26.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
88.0%
64.0%
Over 2.5 rate
72.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
46.0%
2.12
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
27
2.00
PPG
1.33
65.4%
Win rate
37.0%
3.8%
Draw rate
22.2%
30.8%
Loss rate
40.7%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
61.5%
Over 2.5 rate
70.4%
46.2%
Over 3.5 rate
48.1%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
26
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.10
Goals for per game
1.68
72.0%
Scoring rate
84.0%
54.0%
BTTS rate
68.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.67
73.1%
Scoring rate
88.9%
50.0%
BTTS rate
77.8%
2.67
Goals for per game
2.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
100.0%
50
History Matches
50
2.10
Goals Mean
1.68
1.73
Goals Std
1.14
72.0%
Scored 1+ rate
84.0%
60.0%
Scored 2+ rate
52.0%
44.0%
Scored 3+ rate
26.0%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.67
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.50
Goals against per game
1.78
76.0%
Conceding rate
82.0%
1.31
Goals against per game
1.93
73.1%
Conceding rate
85.2%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
50
History Matches
50
1.50
Conceded Mean
1.78
1.33
Conceded Std
1.40
42.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
18.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
26.0%
1.31
Venue Conceded Mean
1.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
26.9%
Clean-sheet rate
14.8%
26.9%
Failed-to-score rate
11.1%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
50
0.90
Result entropy
0.96
2.12
Goal Difference Std
1.97
10.47
Stability score
3.98
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
27
Eligible Matches
40
14
Lead Matches
15
92.9%
Lead Win Rate
93.3%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.93
5
Trailing Matches
15
20.0%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
27
Halftime Coverage Matches
40
0.96
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.90
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.73
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.92
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
34
Normal Rest History Matches
24
1.85
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.17
12
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.75
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
3.00
PPG
2.33
100.0%
Win rate
66.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
3.00
Current Competition PPG
2.33
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
6
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.60
Portability PPG Std
0.52
1.46
Portability PPG Range
1.27
45.28
Portability Score
48.87
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO82.76
PPG0.46
GF0.42
GA-0.28
PPG0.67
PPG0.67
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate6.0%
Failed-to-score rate12.0%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate12.1%
Failed-to-score rate15.8%
History Matches0
Goals Mean0.42
Goals Std0.60
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate8.0%
Scored 3+ rate18.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.71
History Matches0
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std-0.07
Clean-sheet rate6.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.01
History Matches0
Result entropy-0.06
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score6.49
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.37
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate0.00
Lead Points Retention0.02
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate13.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.49
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.33
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.19
Portability Score-3.59
Rest days-0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.69
Long Rest History Matches-12
Long Rest Points Per Match0.25
Current Team ELO82.76
Current Opponent ELO-82.76
Current ELO Difference165.5
Expected score0.23
History Matches0
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.20

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Tuggen

L
Tuggen1–2Freienbach31 Oct · home
Pick: Tuggen 64% · missed
W
Winterthur II1–3Tuggen24 Oct · away
Pick: Tuggen 52% · hit
W
Tuggen2–1Schötz17 Oct · home
Pick: Tuggen 57% · hit
W
Tuggen4–2Taverne29 Aug · home
Pick: Tuggen 52% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

St. Gallen II

L
St. Gallen II1–2Wettswil-Bonstetten7 Nov · home
Pick: St. Gallen II 51% · missed
W
Widnau0–1St. Gallen II1 Nov · away
Pick: St. Gallen II 48% · hit
W
Eschen / Mauren2–3St. Gallen II24 Oct · away
Pick: St. Gallen II 42% · hit
W
Winterthur II1–2St. Gallen II4 Oct · away
Pick: St. Gallen II 42% · hit
L
St. Gallen II0–3Baden29 Aug · home
Pick: Baden 40% · hit

About this match

Tuggen and St. Gallen II meet in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Tuggen win 59.0%, draw 19.3%, St. Gallen II win 21.7%. The pick is Tuggen win. Over 2.5 goals: 70.5%. Both teams to score: 60.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.