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1. Liga Classic - Group 3 Switzerland Group 3 - 14 2026

Thalwil vs Kosova

Thalwil Home · Elo 1,474
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Kosova Away · Elo 1,480
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Kosova win
Thalwil win
35.3%
Draw
25.6%
Kosova winPick
39.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.1%
No40.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.4%
Under 2.535.6%

How much we know

Thalwil history12 matches
Kosova history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.1%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Kosova are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,474 against 1,480. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.67 goals a game over 12 matches for Thalwil, against 1.67 over 48 for Kosova.

  • Kosova concede fewer

    Thalwil concede 2.25 a game, Kosova 1.65.

  • Thalwil games more often go over 2.5 goals

    83% of Thalwil matches, against 60% for Kosova. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Thalwil
Kosova@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1474.5
ELO
1479.9
12
ELO · Matches
48
1474.5
Current Team ELO
1479.9
1479.9
Current Opponent ELO
1474.5
-5.46
Current ELO Difference
5.46
0.49
Expected score
0.51
12
History Matches
48
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.02
47.71
Overperformance
48.80
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
2.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.00
1.90
Goals for per game
1.40
2.30
Goals against per game
1.60
40.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.51
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.49
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.75
Overall performance9 signals
90
12
Matches
48
1.17
PPG
1.29
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
16.7%
Draw rate
29.2%
50.0%
Loss rate
37.5%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
83.3%
Over 2.5 rate
60.4%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
1.98
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.80
Venue performance10 signals
100
9
Matches
23
1.44
PPG
1.30
44.4%
Win rate
34.8%
11.1%
Draw rate
26.1%
44.4%
Loss rate
39.1%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
88.9%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
34.8%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
9
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.67
Goals for per game
1.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
81.3%
58.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.83
77.8%
Scoring rate
78.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
60.9%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.00
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
33.3%
BTTS rate
66.7%
12
History Matches
48
1.67
Goals Mean
1.67
1.49
Goals Std
1.34
66.7%
Scored 1+ rate
81.3%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
45.8%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.83
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.25
Goals against per game
1.65
91.7%
Conceding rate
77.1%
2.22
Goals against per game
1.61
88.9%
Conceding rate
73.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.67
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
12
History Matches
48
2.25
Conceded Mean
1.65
1.42
Conceded Std
1.42
75.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.9%
33.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.8%
2.22
Venue Conceded Mean
1.61
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.8%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
26.1%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
21.7%
8.3%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
12
History Matches
48
0.92
Result entropy
1.00
1.98
Goal Difference Std
1.80
7.94
Stability score
0.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
10
Eligible Matches
34
3
Lead Matches
11
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
81.8%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.85
4
Trailing Matches
12
0.0%
Non-loss rate
41.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
8.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
10
Halftime Coverage Matches
34
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
1.20
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
1.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.13
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
4
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.13
7
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.14
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.40
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
1.67
66.7%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
1.67
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.43
Portability PPG Std
0.19
0.86
Portability PPG Range
0.47
53.85
Portability Score
72.41
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
12
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-5.46
PPG-0.13
GF0.00
GA0.60
PPG0.33
PPG0.14
PPG0.20
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-36
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate14.6%
History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate0.5%
History Matches-36
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate4.2%
Scored 3+ rate8.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.17
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.49
History Matches-36
Conceded Mean0.60
Conceded Std0.00
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate27.1%
Conceded 3+ rate12.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.61
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.37
History Matches-36
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score7.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.26
Eligible Matches-24
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate18.2%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.42
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-24
First Half Goals For Mean0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean0.58
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.24
Portability PPG Range0.39
Portability Score-18.56
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-27
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.37
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Current Team ELO-5.46
Current Opponent ELO5.46
Current ELO Difference-10.91
Expected score-0.02
History Matches-36
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-1.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Thalwil

L
Thalwil0–4Widnau7 Nov · home
Pick: Thalwil 48% · missed
L
Baden3–1Thalwil31 Oct · away
Pick: Baden 66% · hit
W
Thalwil2–1Gossau24 Oct · home
Pick: Thalwil 48% · hit
L
Muttenz4–1Thalwil17 Oct · away
Pick: Muttenz 66% · hit
D
Eschen / Mauren0–0Thalwil29 Aug · away
Pick: Eschen / Mauren 58% · missed

Kosova

D
Kosova2–2Baden7 Nov · home
Pick: Baden 45% · missed
W
Gossau0–3Kosova31 Oct · away
Pick: Kosova 41% · hit
D
Kosova1–1Taverne24 Oct · home
Pick: Taverne 39% · missed
L
Mendrisio3–1Kosova17 Oct · away
Pick: Mendrisio 51% · hit
W
Kosova1–0Dietikon7 Oct · home
Pick: Kosova 42% · hit

About this match

Thalwil and Kosova meet in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Thalwil win 35.3%, draw 25.6%, Kosova win 39.1%. The pick is Kosova win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.4%. Both teams to score: 59.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.