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1. Liga Classic - Group 3 Switzerland Group 3 - 14 2026

Taverne vs Winterthur II

Taverne Home · Elo 1,551
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Winterthur II Away · Elo 1,477
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Taverne win
Taverne winPick
56.5%
Draw
21.4%
Winterthur II win
22.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.1%
No39.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.6%
Under 2.535.4%

How much we know

Taverne history55 matches
Winterthur II history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.5%). Picks in that band won 55.6% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 4,146 matches.

Why Taverne are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Taverne are rated 74 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,551 against 1,477. On rating alone Taverne would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.

  • Winterthur II score more

    1.55 goals a game over 55 matches for Taverne, against 1.86 over 49 for Winterthur II.

  • Taverne concede fewer

    Taverne concede 1.33 a game, Winterthur II 1.71.

  • Winterthur II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    55% of Taverne matches, against 69% for Winterthur II. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Taverne
Winterthur II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1550.8
ELO
1477.2
55
ELO · Matches
49
1550.8
Current Team ELO
1477.2
1477.2
Current Opponent ELO
1550.8
73.58
Current ELO Difference
-73.58
0.60
Expected score
0.40
55
History Matches
49
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.03
53.03
Overperformance
47.93
-0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.03
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
0.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.08
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.28
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.89
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.18
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
49
1.53
PPG
1.31
43.6%
Win rate
34.7%
21.8%
Draw rate
26.5%
34.5%
Loss rate
38.8%
76.4%
Over 1.5 rate
87.8%
54.5%
Over 2.5 rate
69.4%
34.5%
Over 3.5 rate
46.9%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.21
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
26
1.69
PPG
0.96
50.0%
Win rate
23.1%
19.2%
Draw rate
26.9%
30.8%
Loss rate
50.0%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
80.8%
57.7%
Over 2.5 rate
57.7%
38.5%
Over 3.5 rate
34.6%
1.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
26
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.55
Goals for per game
1.86
80.0%
Scoring rate
81.6%
61.8%
BTTS rate
63.3%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.27
80.8%
Scoring rate
76.9%
61.5%
BTTS rate
61.5%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.33
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
55
History Matches
49
1.55
Goals Mean
1.86
1.30
Goals Std
1.51
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
81.6%
45.5%
Scored 2+ rate
55.1%
16.4%
Scored 3+ rate
26.5%
1.65
Venue Goals Mean
1.27
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.33
Goals against per game
1.71
80.0%
Conceding rate
77.6%
1.12
Goals against per game
1.88
80.8%
Conceding rate
76.9%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
55
History Matches
49
1.33
Conceded Mean
1.71
1.11
Conceded Std
1.37
34.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
51.0%
9.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.6%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
1.88
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.4%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
18.4%
19.2%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
22.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
49
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.83
Goal Difference Std
2.21
3.40
Stability score
1.09
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
44
Eligible Matches
38
12
Lead Matches
10
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.90
12
Trailing Matches
14
25.0%
Non-loss rate
21.4%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
44
Halftime Coverage Matches
38
0.64
First Half Goals For Mean
0.79
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.82
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.92
Rest days
84.00
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
28
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.75
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.20
22
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.43
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
8
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.42
Portability PPG Std
0.25
1.00
Portability PPG Range
0.60
54.60
Portability Score
66.94
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO73.58
PPG0.22
GF-0.31
GA-0.39
PPG0.33
PPG0.73
PPG0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate1.6%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches6
Goals Mean-0.31
Goals Std-0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.10
Venue Goals Mean0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.20
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.39
Conceded Std-0.26
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.16
Conceded 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Conceded Mean-0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.29
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.39
Stability score2.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.67
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate3.6%
Trailing Win Rate1.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.33
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.17
Portability PPG Range0.40
Portability Score-12.34
Rest days-0.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.55
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.07
Current Team ELO73.58
Current Opponent ELO-73.58
Current ELO Difference147.2
Expected score0.21
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Taverne

W
Collina d'Oro0–2Taverne7 Nov · away
Pick: Taverne 40% · hit
W
Taverne2–1Mendrisio31 Oct · home
Pick: Taverne 49% · hit
L
Collina d'Oro1–0Taverne28 Oct · away
Pick: Taverne 40% · missed
D
Kosova1–1Taverne24 Oct · away
Pick: Taverne 39% · missed
L
Taverne0–5BSC Young Boys18 Oct · home
Pick: BSC Young Boys 61% · hit

Winterthur II

D
Dietikon2–2Winterthur II31 Oct · away
Pick: Dietikon 47% · missed
L
Winterthur II1–3Tuggen24 Oct · home
Pick: Tuggen 52% · hit
L
Eschen / Mauren4–0Winterthur II17 Oct · away
Pick: Eschen / Mauren 42% · hit
L
Winterthur II1–2St. Gallen II4 Oct · home
Pick: St. Gallen II 42% · hit
W
Winterthur II2–1Mendrisio29 Aug · home
Pick: Winterthur II 39% · hit

About this match

Taverne and Winterthur II meet in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Taverne win 56.5%, draw 21.4%, Winterthur II win 22.1%. The pick is Taverne win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.6%. Both teams to score: 60.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.