Locarno vs Freienbach
Match result probability Model pick: Locarno win
Locarno winPick
42.3%
Draw
22.9%
Freienbach win
34.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes63.7%
No36.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.572.8%
Under 2.527.2%
How much we know
Locarno history10 matches
Freienbach history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Locarno
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.3%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Locarno are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Locarno are rated 43 Elo points higher
Elo 1,510 against 1,467. On rating alone Locarno would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.
-
Locarno score far more
3.00 goals a game over 10 matches for Locarno, against 1.57 over 49 for Freienbach.
-
Locarno concede fewer
Locarno concede 1.30 a game, Freienbach 1.80.
-
Locarno games more often go over 2.5 goals
80% of Locarno matches, against 69% for Freienbach. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Freienbach@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1510.1
ELO
1467.2
10
ELO · Matches
49
1510.1
Current Team ELO
1467.2
1467.2
Current Opponent ELO
1510.1
42.92
Current ELO Difference
-42.92
0.56
Expected score
0.44
10
History Matches
49
0.09
Residual Mean
-0.03
52.88
Overperformance
47.52
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
0.90
3.00
Goals for per game
1.30
1.30
Goals against per game
1.90
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
3.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.27
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.61
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.53
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.91
Overall performance9 signals 90
10
Matches
49
1.80
PPG
1.24
60.0%
Win rate
34.7%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.4%
40.0%
Loss rate
44.9%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
91.8%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
69.4%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.8%
2.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
Venue performance10 signals 100
7
Matches
25
2.14
PPG
0.92
71.4%
Win rate
24.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
28.6%
Loss rate
56.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.0%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
68.0%
57.1%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
7
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
3.00
Goals for per game
1.57
100.0%
Scoring rate
75.5%
70.0%
BTTS rate
59.2%
3.14
Goals for per game
1.28
100.0%
Scoring rate
64.0%
71.4%
BTTS rate
44.0%
1.33
Goals for per game
0.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
33.3%
100.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
10
History Matches
49
3.00
Goals Mean
1.57
1.90
Goals Std
1.25
100.0%
Scored 1+ rate
75.5%
80.0%
Scored 2+ rate
49.0%
40.0%
Scored 3+ rate
26.5%
3.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.28
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.80
70.0%
Conceding rate
81.6%
1.14
Goals against per game
2.04
71.4%
Conceding rate
76.0%
2.33
Goals against per game
1.67
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
10
History Matches
49
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.80
1.10
Conceded Std
1.32
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
53.1%
20.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.7%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
2.04
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
66.7%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.5%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
36.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
10
History Matches
49
0.61
Result entropy
0.96
2.53
Goal Difference Std
2.07
38.74
Stability score
4.32
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
7
Eligible Matches
39
3
Lead Matches
11
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
54.5%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.64
3
Trailing Matches
17
0.0%
Non-loss rate
23.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.9%
Goal timing5 signals 50
7
Halftime Coverage Matches
39
1.00
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
1.86
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.92
Rest days
83.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
3
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.07
6
Long Rest History Matches
19
2.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.37
Competition & season17 signals 170
3
Matches
3
0.00
PPG
0.67
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
66.7%
100.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
3
Current Competition Matches
3
0.00
Current Competition PPG
0.67
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.00
2
Competition Season Count
5
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
1.29
Portability PPG Std
0.32
2.57
Portability PPG Range
0.77
28.00
Portability Score
61.27
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
10
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO42.92
PPG0.56
GF1.43
GA-0.50
PPG-0.67
PPG1.22
PPG0.20
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-39
Clean-sheet rate11.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate4.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.36
History Matches-39
Goals Mean1.43
Goals Std0.65
Scored 1+ rate24.5%
Scored 2+ rate31.0%
Scored 3+ rate13.5%
Venue Goals Mean1.86
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.63
History Matches-39
Conceded Mean-0.50
Conceded Std-0.22
Clean-sheet rate11.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.04
History Matches-39
Result entropy-0.34
Goal Difference Std0.46
Stability score34.42
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.32
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.62
Eligible Matches-32
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate12.1%
Lead Points Retention0.03
Trailing Matches-14
Non-loss rate-0.24
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-32
First Half Goals For Mean0.33
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean1.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.97
Portability PPG Range1.80
Portability Score-33.27
Rest days0.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-24
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Long Rest History Matches-13
Long Rest Points Per Match0.63
Current Team ELO42.92
Current Opponent ELO-42.92
Current ELO Difference85.84
Expected score0.12
History Matches-39
Residual Mean0.12
Overperformance5.36
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Locarno
L
Locarno0–2Collina d'Oro31 Oct · home
Pick: Collina d'Oro 39% · hit D
Mendrisio0–0Locarno24 Oct · away
Pick: Mendrisio 65% · missed W
Concordia Lausanne1–2Locarno18 Oct · away
Pick: Concordia Lausanne 41% · missed D
Dietikon2–2Locarno29 Aug · away
Pick: Dietikon 62% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Freienbach
W
Freienbach4–3Dietikon7 Nov · home
Pick: Dietikon 43% · missed W
Tuggen1–2Freienbach31 Oct · away
Pick: Tuggen 64% · missed L
Freienbach1–2Wettswil-Bonstetten24 Oct · home
Pick: Wettswil-Bonstetten 41% · hit W
Freienbach3–1Wettswil-Bonstetten17 Oct · home
Pick: Wettswil-Bonstetten 45% · missed D
Freienbach0–0Eschen / Mauren7 Oct · home
Pick: Freienbach 40% · missed About this match
Locarno and Freienbach meet in 1. Liga Classic - Group 3 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Locarno win 42.3%, draw 22.9%, Freienbach win 34.9%. The pick is Locarno win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.8%. Both teams to score: 63.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.