Guijuelo vs Colegios Diocesanos
Match result probability Model pick: Guijuelo win
Guijuelo winPick
65.4%
Draw
19.2%
Colegios Diocesanos win
15.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes49.9%
No50.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.554.6%
Under 2.545.4%
How much we know
Guijuelo history58 matches
Colegios Diocesanos history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Guijuelo
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.4%). Picks in that band won 63.9% of the time, and the model said 64.4% on average, over 2,031 matches.
Why Guijuelo are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Guijuelo are rated 114 Elo points higher
Elo 1,550 against 1,436. On rating alone Guijuelo would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.
-
Guijuelo score more
1.28 goals a game over 58 matches for Guijuelo, against 0.94 over 33 for Colegios Diocesanos.
-
Guijuelo concede fewer
Guijuelo concede 1.24 a game, Colegios Diocesanos 1.58.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
50% of Guijuelo matches, against 55% for Colegios Diocesanos. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Colegios Diocesanos@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1549.7
ELO
1435.6
58
ELO · Matches
33
1549.7
Current Team ELO
1435.6
1435.6
Current Opponent ELO
1549.7
114.1
Current ELO Difference
-114.1
0.66
Expected score
0.34
58
History Matches
33
0.04
Residual Mean
-0.10
52.98
Overperformance
43.76
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.15
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
2.00
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.90
1.50
Goals for per game
0.90
1.40
Goals against per game
2.10
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.76
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.14
Overall performance9 signals 90
58
Matches
33
1.52
PPG
1.06
43.1%
Win rate
30.3%
22.4%
Draw rate
15.2%
34.5%
Loss rate
54.5%
75.9%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
54.5%
22.4%
Over 3.5 rate
24.2%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals 100
28
Matches
17
1.79
PPG
1.12
53.6%
Win rate
29.4%
17.9%
Draw rate
23.5%
28.6%
Loss rate
47.1%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
58.8%
46.4%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
21.4%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
28
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.28
Goals for per game
0.94
74.1%
Scoring rate
63.6%
53.4%
BTTS rate
45.5%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.76
82.1%
Scoring rate
58.8%
46.4%
BTTS rate
35.3%
58
History Matches
33
1.28
Goals Mean
0.94
1.08
Goals Std
0.89
74.1%
Scored 1+ rate
63.6%
36.2%
Scored 2+ rate
24.2%
12.1%
Scored 3+ rate
6.1%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
0.76
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.24
Goals against per game
1.58
72.4%
Conceding rate
72.7%
0.96
Goals against per game
1.53
60.7%
Conceding rate
58.8%
58
History Matches
33
1.24
Conceded Mean
1.58
1.18
Conceded Std
1.46
29.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.5%
13.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.2%
0.96
Venue Conceded Mean
1.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
25.9%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
39.3%
Clean-sheet rate
41.2%
17.9%
Failed-to-score rate
41.2%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
27.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
58
History Matches
33
0.97
Result entropy
0.89
1.79
Goal Difference Std
1.74
3.05
Stability score
10.95
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
57
Eligible Matches
32
15
Lead Matches
7
86.7%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.91
Lead Points Retention
0.90
16
Trailing Matches
10
18.8%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
32
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
0.74
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.47
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.29
Rest days
188.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
35
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.40
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.00
21
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.14
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
5
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.72
Portability PPG Std
—
1.67
Portability PPG Range
—
40.98
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
58
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO114.1
PPG0.46
GF0.34
GA-0.33
PPG0.67
PPG0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches25
Clean-sheet rate0.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.23
History Matches25
Goals Mean0.34
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate10.5%
Scored 2+ rate12.0%
Scored 3+ rate6.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.74
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.37
History Matches25
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.28
Clean-sheet rate0.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.19
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.64
History Matches25
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score-7.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.21
Eligible Matches25
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate1.0%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate18.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches25
First Half Goals For Mean0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.21
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-103.7
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches18
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.40
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.67
Current Team ELO114.1
Current Opponent ELO-114.1
Current ELO Difference228.2
Expected score0.32
History Matches25
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance9.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Guijuelo
L
Villaralbo2–0Guijuelo7 Nov · away
Pick: Guijuelo 38% · missed D
Guijuelo2–2Arandina1 Nov · home
Pick: Guijuelo 58% · missed L
Guijuelo1–3Sporting Gijon29 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting Gijon 43% · hit W
Unionistas II0–1Guijuelo25 Oct · away
Pick: Guijuelo 48% · hit W
Guijuelo5–1La Virgen del Camino18 Oct · home
Pick: Guijuelo 59% · hit Colegios Diocesanos
D
Colegios Diocesanos2–2Atlético Mansillés7 Nov · home
Pick: Atlético Mansillés 42% · missed D
Bembibre1–1Colegios Diocesanos1 Nov · away
Pick: Bembibre 50% · missed L
Colegios Diocesanos0–2Cristo Atlético24 Oct · home
Pick: Cristo Atlético 52% · hit L
Turégano3–2Colegios Diocesanos17 Oct · away
Pick: Turégano 39% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Guijuelo and Colegios Diocesanos meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Guijuelo win 65.4%, draw 19.2%, Colegios Diocesanos win 15.5%. The pick is Guijuelo win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.6%. Both teams to score: 49.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.