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Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 Spain Group 8 - 11 2026

Atlético Mansillés vs Palencia CF

Atlético Mansillés Home · Elo 1,552
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Palencia CF Away · Elo 1,529
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Palencia CF win
Atlético Mansillés win
33.5%
Draw
30.4%
Palencia CF winPick
36.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.5%
No53.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.540.9%
Under 2.559.1%

How much we know

Atlético Mansillés history50 matches
Palencia CF history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.1%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Palencia CF are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,552 against 1,529. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Palencia CF score more

    0.98 goals a game over 50 matches for Atlético Mansillés, against 1.33 over 55 for Palencia CF.

  • Atlético Mansillés concede fewer

    Atlético Mansillés concede 0.86 a game, Palencia CF 1.20.

  • Palencia CF games more often go over 2.5 goals

    26% of Atlético Mansillés matches, against 49% for Palencia CF. The model puts this match at 41% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 8 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Atlético Mansillés
Palencia CF@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1551.9
ELO
1529.1
50
ELO · Matches
55
1551.9
Current Team ELO
1529.1
1529.1
Current Opponent ELO
1551.9
22.85
Current ELO Difference
-22.85
0.53
Expected score
0.47
50
History Matches
55
0.05
Residual Mean
0.03
53.67
Overperformance
51.91
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.40
1.00
Goals for per game
1.20
0.60
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.30
1.10
Goals for per game
1.60
0.50
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.11
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
0.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
55
1.52
PPG
1.40
38.0%
Win rate
40.0%
38.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
24.0%
Loss rate
40.0%
56.0%
Over 1.5 rate
72.7%
26.0%
Over 2.5 rate
49.1%
12.0%
Over 3.5 rate
21.8%
1.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
Venue performance10 signals
100
25
Matches
28
1.88
PPG
1.29
52.0%
Win rate
35.7%
32.0%
Draw rate
21.4%
16.0%
Loss rate
42.9%
56.0%
Over 1.5 rate
67.9%
32.0%
Over 2.5 rate
46.4%
16.0%
Over 3.5 rate
17.9%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
25
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.98
Goals for per game
1.33
60.0%
Scoring rate
78.2%
36.0%
BTTS rate
61.8%
1.16
Goals for per game
1.14
68.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
36.0%
BTTS rate
57.1%
50
History Matches
55
0.98
Goals Mean
1.33
1.05
Goals Std
1.03
60.0%
Scored 1+ rate
78.2%
28.0%
Scored 2+ rate
38.2%
6.0%
Scored 3+ rate
12.7%
1.16
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
0.86
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Conceding rate
78.2%
0.76
Goals against per game
1.21
52.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
50
History Matches
55
0.86
Conceded Mean
1.20
0.92
Conceded Std
0.86
18.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.5%
6.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.3%
0.76
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
48.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
48.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
32.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
55
0.98
Result entropy
0.96
1.42
Goal Difference Std
1.25
1.89
Stability score
3.98
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
55
8
Lead Matches
12
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
91.7%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.94
8
Trailing Matches
16
50.0%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
55
0.32
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.28
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.66
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.84
0.58
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
188.0
Rest days
98.19
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
0
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
25
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.52
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.32
22
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.55
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.57
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.64
0.61
Portability PPG Range
1.28
62.13
Portability Score
43.83
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO22.85
PPG0.12
GF-0.35
GA-0.34
PPG0.59
PPG0.60
PPG0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate18.2%
Failed-to-score rate18.2%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate23.0%
Failed-to-score rate7.0%
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.35
Goals Std0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.18
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.02
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.41
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.34
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate18.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.17
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.42
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score-2.09
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.48
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.29
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate25.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.34
Portability PPG Range-0.67
Portability Score18.29
Rest days89.77
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.20
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Current Team ELO22.85
Current Opponent ELO-22.85
Current ELO Difference45.70
Expected score0.07
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance1.76
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Atlético Mansillés

D
Colegios Diocesanos2–2Atlético Mansillés7 Nov · away
Pick: Atlético Mansillés 42% · missed
D
Atlético Mansillés1–1Villaralbo31 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Mansillés 40% · missed
D
Arandina2–2Atlético Mansillés24 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 38% · hit
L
Atlético Mansillés1–2Unionistas II17 Oct · home
Pick: Atlético Mansillés 46% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Palencia CF

L
Cristo Atlético1–0Palencia CF31 Oct · away
Pick: Cristo Atlético 41% · hit
D
Palencia CF1–1Turégano24 Oct · home
Pick: Palencia CF 69% · missed
W
Calasanz de Soria0–1Palencia CF17 Oct · away
Pick: Draw 35% · missed
W
Atlético Astorga0–1Palencia CF29 Aug · away
Pick: Atlético Astorga 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Atlético Mansillés and Palencia CF meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Atlético Mansillés win 33.5%, draw 30.4%, Palencia CF win 36.1%. The pick is Palencia CF win. Over 2.5 goals: 40.9%. Both teams to score: 46.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.