Turégano vs UD Santa Marta
Match result probability Model pick: UD Santa Marta win
Turégano win
31.8%
Draw
31.5%
UD Santa Marta winPick
36.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes51.0%
No49.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.546.1%
Under 2.553.9%
How much we know
Turégano history0 matches
UD Santa Marta history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours UD Santa Marta
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (36.8%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why UD Santa Marta are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
UD Santa Marta are rated 51 Elo points higher
Elo 1,551 against 1,500. On rating alone UD Santa Marta would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
UD Santa Marta@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1550.6
0
ELO · Matches
53
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1550.6
1550.6
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
-50.56
Current ELO Difference
50.56
0.43
Expected score
0.57
0
History Matches
53
—
Residual Mean
0.05
—
Overperformance
53.55
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
1.20
—
Goals for per game
1.00
—
Goals against per game
1.20
—
Win rate
20.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
1.50
—
Goals for per game
1.70
—
Goals against per game
1.30
—
Win rate
30.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.64
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
53
—
PPG
1.57
—
Win rate
41.5%
—
Draw rate
32.1%
—
Loss rate
26.4%
—
Over 1.5 rate
69.8%
—
Over 2.5 rate
41.5%
—
Over 3.5 rate
24.5%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
26
—
PPG
1.19
—
Win rate
26.9%
—
Draw rate
38.5%
—
Loss rate
34.6%
—
Over 1.5 rate
69.2%
—
Over 2.5 rate
42.3%
—
Over 3.5 rate
23.1%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.03
0
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
1.43
—
Scoring rate
79.2%
—
BTTS rate
49.1%
—
Goals for per game
1.12
—
Scoring rate
76.9%
—
BTTS rate
61.5%
0
History Matches
53
—
Goals Mean
1.43
—
Goals Std
1.32
—
Scored 1+ rate
79.2%
—
Scored 2+ rate
35.8%
—
Scored 3+ rate
15.1%
—
Venue Goals Mean
1.12
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
0.98
—
Conceding rate
60.4%
—
Goals against per game
1.27
—
Conceding rate
76.9%
0
History Matches
53
—
Conceded Mean
0.98
—
Conceded Std
0.96
—
Conceded 2+ rate
32.1%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
3.8%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
1.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
39.6%
—
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
—
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
—
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
—
Clean-sheet rate
39.6%
—
Failed-to-score rate
20.8%
—
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
—
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
—
Clean-sheet rate
39.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
53
—
Result entropy
0.98
—
Goal Difference Std
1.70
—
Stability score
1.57
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
53
0
Lead Matches
24
—
Lead Win Rate
66.7%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.74
0
Trailing Matches
10
—
Non-loss rate
30.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.70
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
Rest days
98.23
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
0
Normal Rest History Matches
29
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.76
0
Long Rest History Matches
23
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.35
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
3
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.21
—
Portability PPG Range
0.42
—
Portability Score
70.41
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO-50.56
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-53
History Matches-26
History Matches-53
History Matches-53
History Matches-53
Eligible Matches-53
Lead Matches-24
Trailing Matches-10
Halftime Coverage Matches-53
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-29
Long Rest History Matches-23
Current Team ELO-50.56
Current Opponent ELO50.56
Current ELO Difference-101.1
Expected score-0.14
History Matches-53
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Turégano
D
Turégano1–1Cultural Leonesa II1 Nov · home
Pick: Turégano 35% · missed D
Palencia CF1–1Turégano24 Oct · away
Pick: Palencia CF 69% · missed W
Turégano3–2Colegios Diocesanos17 Oct · home
Pick: Turégano 39% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
UD Santa Marta
W
UD Santa Marta5–0Calasanz de Soria7 Nov · home
Pick: UD Santa Marta 66% · hit W
Salamanca II0–2UD Santa Marta31 Oct · away
Pick: UD Santa Marta 37% · hit W
UD Santa Marta2–1Almazán24 Oct · home
Pick: UD Santa Marta 55% · hit D
Mirandés II0–0UD Santa Marta18 Oct · away
Pick: UD Santa Marta 38% · missed W
UD Santa Marta2–0Cultural Leonesa II4 Oct · home
Pick: UD Santa Marta 48% · hit About this match
Turégano and UD Santa Marta meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Turégano win 31.8%, draw 31.5%, UD Santa Marta win 36.8%. The pick is UD Santa Marta win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.1%. Both teams to score: 51.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.