La Virgen del Camino vs Villaralbo
Match result probability Model pick: La Virgen del Camino win
La Virgen del Camino winPick
34.4%
Draw
34.2%
Villaralbo win
31.4%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes46.8%
No53.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.539.7%
Under 2.560.3%
How much we know
La Virgen del Camino history49 matches
Villaralbo history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours La Virgen del Camino
Over / under 2.5: ours Under
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 13:45 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 14:45 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (34.4%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why La Virgen del Camino are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Villaralbo are rated 33 Elo points higher
Elo 1,503 against 1,471. On rating alone Villaralbo would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.02 goals a game over 49 matches for La Virgen del Camino, against 0.92 over 50 for Villaralbo.
-
Villaralbo concede fewer
La Virgen del Camino concede 1.12 a game, Villaralbo 0.90.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
35% of La Virgen del Camino matches, against 28% for Villaralbo. The model puts this match at 40% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 11 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Villaralbo@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1470.6
ELO
1503.1
49
ELO · Matches
50
1470.6
Current Team ELO
1503.1
1503.1
Current Opponent ELO
1470.6
-32.55
Current ELO Difference
32.55
0.45
Expected score
0.55
49
History Matches
50
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.00
47.92
Overperformance
50.22
-0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
2.20
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.50
1.10
Goals for per game
1.30
1.80
Goals against per game
1.30
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.55
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.00
Overall performance9 signals 90
49
Matches
50
1.31
PPG
1.36
32.7%
Win rate
34.0%
32.7%
Draw rate
34.0%
34.7%
Loss rate
32.0%
63.3%
Over 1.5 rate
52.0%
34.7%
Over 2.5 rate
28.0%
20.4%
Over 3.5 rate
14.0%
1.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
Venue performance10 signals 100
25
Matches
25
1.32
PPG
1.08
28.0%
Win rate
28.0%
48.0%
Draw rate
24.0%
24.0%
Loss rate
48.0%
56.0%
Over 1.5 rate
52.0%
16.0%
Over 2.5 rate
32.0%
12.0%
Over 3.5 rate
12.0%
1.30
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.20
25
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.02
Goals for per game
0.92
67.3%
Scoring rate
56.0%
49.0%
BTTS rate
34.0%
0.96
Goals for per game
0.72
60.0%
Scoring rate
52.0%
40.0%
BTTS rate
36.0%
49
History Matches
50
1.02
Goals Mean
0.92
1.02
Goals Std
1.02
67.3%
Scored 1+ rate
56.0%
22.4%
Scored 2+ rate
26.0%
8.2%
Scored 3+ rate
8.0%
0.96
Venue Goals Mean
0.72
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.12
Goals against per game
0.90
69.4%
Conceding rate
60.0%
0.76
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Conceding rate
72.0%
49
History Matches
50
1.12
Conceded Mean
0.90
1.02
Conceded Std
0.94
28.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.0%
12.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.0%
0.76
Venue Conceded Mean
1.20
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
44.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
32.7%
Failed-to-score rate
44.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
28.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
49
History Matches
50
1.00
Result entropy
1.00
1.43
Goal Difference Std
1.35
0.04
Stability score
0.04
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
47
Eligible Matches
49
8
Lead Matches
16
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.77
16
Trailing Matches
10
18.8%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
49
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.49
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.45
0.60
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.57
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
187.9
Rest days
189.2
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
27
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.22
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.57
20
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.94
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.10
Portability PPG Std
0.13
0.20
Portability PPG Range
0.26
83.68
Portability Score
79.57
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
49
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-32.55
PPG-0.05
GF0.10
GA0.22
PPG0.24
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate12.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-1
Goals Mean0.10
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate11.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate0.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.07
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.22
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate6.6%
Conceded 3+ rate6.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.44
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.07
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.08
Stability score0.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.55
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-8
Lead Win Rate6.3%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.04
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.03
Portability PPG Range-0.06
Portability Score4.10
Rest days-1.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.51
Current Team ELO-32.55
Current Opponent ELO32.55
Current ELO Difference-65.10
Expected score-0.09
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.29
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.29
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
La Virgen del Camino
W
La Virgen del Camino2–1Unionistas II31 Oct · home
Pick: La Virgen del Camino 41% · hit D
La Virgen del Camino0–0Mirandés II24 Oct · home
Pick: Mirandés II 40% · missed L
Guijuelo5–1La Virgen del Camino18 Oct · away
Pick: Guijuelo 59% · hit L
Bembibre2–0La Virgen del Camino4 Oct · away
Pick: Bembibre 37% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Villaralbo
W
Villaralbo2–0Guijuelo7 Nov · home
Pick: Guijuelo 38% · missed D
Atlético Mansillés1–1Villaralbo31 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Mansillés 40% · missed W
Villaralbo2–0Bembibre24 Oct · home
Pick: Villaralbo 45% · hit L
Cristo Atlético2–0Villaralbo18 Oct · away
Pick: Cristo Atlético 53% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
La Virgen del Camino and Villaralbo meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: La Virgen del Camino win 34.4%, draw 34.2%, Villaralbo win 31.4%. The pick is La Virgen del Camino win. Over 2.5 goals: 39.7%. Both teams to score: 46.8%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.