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Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 Spain Group 8 - 11 2026

Unionistas II vs Arandina

Unionistas II Home · Elo 1,462
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
Arandina Away · Elo 1,463
Las Pistas del Helmantico, Salamanca Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Arandina win
Unionistas II win
31.3%
Draw
29.5%
Arandina winPick
39.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes49.4%
No50.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.9%
Under 2.554.1%

How much we know

Unionistas II history34 matches
Arandina history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.2%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.

Why Arandina are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,462 against 1,463. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.03 goals a game over 34 matches for Unionistas II, against 1.02 over 52 for Arandina.

  • Defences are close

    Unionistas II concede 1.26 a game, Arandina 1.23.

  • Unionistas II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    47% of Unionistas II matches, against 33% for Arandina. The model puts this match at 46% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Unionistas II
Arandina@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1462.0
ELO
1463.0
34
ELO · Matches
52
1462.0
Current Team ELO
1463.0
1463.0
Current Opponent ELO
1462.0
-0.95
Current ELO Difference
0.95
0.50
Expected score
0.50
34
History Matches
52
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.03
46.63
Overperformance
47.48
0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.60
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
0.40
Goals against per game
1.60
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.20
1.70
Goals for per game
1.30
0.80
Goals against per game
1.50
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.81
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.47
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
52
0.97
PPG
1.12
20.6%
Win rate
25.0%
35.3%
Draw rate
36.5%
44.1%
Loss rate
38.5%
58.8%
Over 1.5 rate
71.2%
47.1%
Over 2.5 rate
32.7%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
26
1.06
PPG
0.92
23.5%
Win rate
19.2%
35.3%
Draw rate
34.6%
41.2%
Loss rate
46.2%
58.8%
Over 1.5 rate
73.1%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
30.8%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
19.2%
1.14
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.42
17
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.03
Goals for per game
1.02
58.8%
Scoring rate
61.5%
47.1%
BTTS rate
48.1%
1.18
Goals for per game
0.81
64.7%
Scoring rate
53.8%
58.8%
BTTS rate
42.3%
34
History Matches
52
1.03
Goals Mean
1.02
1.18
Goals Std
0.99
58.8%
Scored 1+ rate
61.5%
23.5%
Scored 2+ rate
30.8%
14.7%
Scored 3+ rate
9.6%
1.18
Venue Goals Mean
0.81
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.26
Goals against per game
1.23
70.6%
Conceding rate
75.0%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.35
76.5%
Conceding rate
80.8%
34
History Matches
52
1.26
Conceded Mean
1.23
1.01
Conceded Std
1.05
44.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
30.8%
11.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.5%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
41.2%
Failed-to-score rate
38.5%
23.5%
Clean-sheet rate
19.2%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
46.2%
29.4%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
52
0.96
Result entropy
0.98
1.39
Goal Difference Std
1.35
4.06
Stability score
1.52
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
32
Eligible Matches
52
11
Lead Matches
13
45.5%
Lead Win Rate
53.8%
0.58
Lead Points Retention
0.64
7
Trailing Matches
15
14.3%
Non-loss rate
46.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
13.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
32
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
0.34
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.27
Rest days
188.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
17
Normal Rest History Matches
32
0.94
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.06
16
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.26
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.03
—
Portability PPG Range
0.06
—
Portability Score
94.76
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-0.95
PPG-0.14
GF0.01
GA0.03
PPG0.14
PPG0.80
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-18
Clean-sheet rate4.4%
Failed-to-score rate2.7%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate4.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-18
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate5.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.25
History Matches-18
Conceded Mean0.03
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate4.4%
Conceded 2+ rate13.3%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.06
History Matches-18
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score2.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.17
Eligible Matches-20
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate-0.32
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches-20
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.06
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days-103.7
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.26
Current Team ELO-0.95
Current Opponent ELO0.95
Current ELO Difference-1.90
Expected score0.00
History Matches-18
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-0.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Unionistas II

W
Unionistas II1–0Mirandés II7 Nov · home
Pick: Mirandés II 39% · missed
L
La Virgen del Camino2–1Unionistas II31 Oct · away
Pick: La Virgen del Camino 41% · hit
L
Unionistas II0–1Guijuelo25 Oct · home
Pick: Guijuelo 48% · hit
W
Atlético Mansillés1–2Unionistas II17 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Mansillés 46% · missed
L
Cristo Atlético3–0Unionistas II4 Oct · away
Pick: Cristo Atlético 56% · hit

Arandina

D
Guijuelo2–2Arandina1 Nov · away
Pick: Guijuelo 58% · missed
D
Arandina2–2Atlético Mansillés24 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 38% · hit
D
Bembibre1–1Arandina17 Oct · away
Pick: Arandina 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Unionistas II and Arandina meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 8 on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Las Pistas del Helmantico, Salamanca. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Unionistas II win 31.3%, draw 29.5%, Arandina win 39.2%. The pick is Arandina win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.9%. Both teams to score: 49.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.