Halesowen Town vs Redditch United
Match result probability Model pick: Halesowen Town win
Halesowen Town winPick
47.2%
Draw
25.8%
Redditch United win
27.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes58.2%
No41.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.559.6%
Under 2.540.4%
How much we know
Halesowen Town history73 matches
Redditch United history69 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Halesowen Town
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.2%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why Halesowen Town are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,550 against 1,550. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Halesowen Town score more
1.77 goals a game over 73 matches for Halesowen Town, against 1.42 over 69 for Redditch United.
-
Defences are close
Halesowen Town concede 1.27 a game, Redditch United 1.29.
-
Halesowen Town games more often go over 2.5 goals
59% of Halesowen Town matches, against 49% for Redditch United. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Redditch United@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1550.1
ELO
1550.3
73
ELO · Matches
69
1550.1
Current Team ELO
1550.3
1550.3
Current Opponent ELO
1550.1
-0.20
Current ELO Difference
0.20
0.50
Expected score
0.50
73
History Matches
69
0.03
Residual Mean
0.04
52.66
Overperformance
52.77
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.50
1.30
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
0.90
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.92
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals 90
73
Matches
69
1.58
PPG
1.42
42.5%
Win rate
39.1%
30.1%
Draw rate
24.6%
27.4%
Loss rate
36.2%
78.1%
Over 1.5 rate
76.8%
58.9%
Over 2.5 rate
49.3%
39.7%
Over 3.5 rate
30.4%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
Venue performance10 signals 100
37
Matches
35
1.81
PPG
0.97
51.4%
Win rate
22.9%
27.0%
Draw rate
28.6%
21.6%
Loss rate
48.6%
83.8%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
67.6%
Over 2.5 rate
37.1%
51.4%
Over 3.5 rate
17.1%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.38
37
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.77
Goals for per game
1.42
78.1%
Scoring rate
72.5%
54.8%
BTTS rate
47.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.86
83.8%
Scoring rate
60.0%
59.5%
BTTS rate
45.7%
73
History Matches
69
1.77
Goals Mean
1.42
1.48
Goals Std
1.36
78.1%
Scored 1+ rate
72.5%
50.7%
Scored 2+ rate
36.2%
28.8%
Scored 3+ rate
18.8%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
0.86
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.27
Goals against per game
1.29
69.9%
Conceding rate
68.1%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.40
70.3%
Conceding rate
77.1%
73
History Matches
69
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.29
1.17
Conceded Std
1.31
35.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.2%
16.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.5%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
16.2%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
30.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
21.9%
Failed-to-score rate
27.5%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.9%
16.2%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
30.1%
Clean-sheet rate
31.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
73
History Matches
69
0.98
Result entropy
0.98
1.85
Goal Difference Std
2.12
1.70
Stability score
1.68
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
73
Eligible Matches
68
23
Lead Matches
22
69.6%
Lead Win Rate
86.4%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.91
23
Trailing Matches
17
43.5%
Non-loss rate
35.3%
21.7%
Trailing Win Rate
17.6%
Goal timing5 signals 50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
68
0.73
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
1.04
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.64
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
59
Normal Rest History Matches
53
1.61
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
8
Long Rest History Matches
9
1.25
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.22
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.67
1.33
Portability PPG Range
1.60
51.71
Portability Score
42.67
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
73
Clean History Matches
69
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-0.20
PPG0.16
GF0.35
GA-0.02
PPG0.84
PPG0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate6.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.24
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.35
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate5.6%
Scored 2+ rate14.5%
Scored 3+ rate9.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.12
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.02
Conceded Std-0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate1.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.47
History Matches4
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.27
Stability score0.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.31
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate8.2%
Trailing Win Rate4.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.05
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range-0.27
Portability Score9.04
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Normal Rest History Matches6
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.31
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.97
Current Team ELO-0.20
Current Opponent ELO0.20
Current ELO Difference-0.41
Expected score0.00
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Halesowen Town
L
Halesowen Town3–5Anstey Nomads7 Nov · home
Pick: Anstey Nomads 39% · hit W
Halesowen Town3–2Leamington27 Oct · home
Pick: Halesowen Town 62% · hit W
Evesham United0–4Halesowen Town24 Oct · away
Pick: Halesowen Town 44% · hit L
Racing Club Warwick5–1Halesowen Town20 Oct · away
Pick: Halesowen Town 44% · missed W
Halesowen Town2–1Hitchin Town17 Oct · home
Pick: Halesowen Town 59% · hit Redditch United
L
Kettering Town2–1Redditch United7 Nov · away
Pick: Kettering Town 49% · hit D
Redditch United3–3Needham Market31 Oct · home
Pick: Redditch United 49% · missed W
Racing Club Warwick1–2Redditch United27 Oct · away
Pick: Racing Club Warwick 41% · missed D
Leamington2–2Redditch United13 Oct · away
Pick: Redditch United 45% · missed W
Redditch United3–1Halesowen Town31 Aug · home
Pick: Redditch United 38% · hit About this match
Halesowen Town and Redditch United meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Halesowen Town win 47.2%, draw 25.8%, Redditch United win 27.0%. The pick is Halesowen Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.6%. Both teams to score: 58.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.