Hapoel Beer Sheva vs Hapoel Tel Aviv
Match result probability Model pick: Hapoel Beer Sheva win
Hapoel Beer Sheva winPick
50.2%
Draw
23.7%
Hapoel Tel Aviv win
26.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes54.7%
No45.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.556.8%
Under 2.543.2%
How much we know
Hapoel Beer Sheva history77 matches
Hapoel Tel Aviv history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Hapoel Beer Sheva
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 17:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Hapoel Beer Sheva are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,666 against 1,654. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Hapoel Beer Sheva score more
1.97 goals a game over 77 matches for Hapoel Beer Sheva, against 1.75 over 72 for Hapoel Tel Aviv.
-
Hapoel Tel Aviv concede fewer
Hapoel Beer Sheva concede 1.10 a game, Hapoel Tel Aviv 0.85.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
58% of Hapoel Beer Sheva matches, against 51% for Hapoel Tel Aviv. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hapoel Tel Aviv@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1666.0
ELO
1653.9
77
ELO · Matches
72
1666.0
Current Team ELO
1653.9
1653.9
Current Opponent ELO
1666.0
12.00
Current ELO Difference
-12.00
0.52
Expected score
0.48
77
History Matches
72
0.10
Residual Mean
0.10
58.11
Overperformance
57.94
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.13
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
1.40
Goals for per game
1.80
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.90
1.40
Goals for per game
1.50
1.80
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.66
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.67
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.92
Overall performance9 signals 90
77
Matches
72
1.96
PPG
2.03
58.4%
Win rate
61.1%
20.8%
Draw rate
19.4%
20.8%
Loss rate
19.4%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
58.4%
Over 2.5 rate
51.4%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
22.2%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.78
Venue performance10 signals 100
37
Matches
37
2.11
PPG
1.59
62.2%
Win rate
43.2%
24.3%
Draw rate
29.7%
13.5%
Loss rate
27.0%
83.8%
Over 1.5 rate
78.4%
62.2%
Over 2.5 rate
56.8%
43.2%
Over 3.5 rate
21.6%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
37
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.97
Goals for per game
1.75
85.7%
Scoring rate
81.9%
55.8%
BTTS rate
38.9%
2.14
Goals for per game
1.51
89.2%
Scoring rate
73.0%
56.8%
BTTS rate
51.4%
77
History Matches
72
1.97
Goals Mean
1.75
1.45
Goals Std
1.26
85.7%
Scored 1+ rate
81.9%
59.7%
Scored 2+ rate
56.9%
27.3%
Scored 3+ rate
25.0%
2.14
Venue Goals Mean
1.51
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.10
Goals against per game
0.85
64.9%
Conceding rate
50.0%
1.05
Goals against per game
1.16
59.5%
Conceding rate
67.6%
77
History Matches
72
1.10
Conceded Mean
0.85
1.10
Conceded Std
1.06
29.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
11.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.6%
1.05
Venue Conceded Mean
1.16
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.1%
40.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.1%
40.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
10.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
35.1%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
77
History Matches
72
0.88
Result entropy
0.85
1.89
Goal Difference Std
1.78
11.99
Stability score
14.64
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
77
Eligible Matches
72
35
Lead Matches
25
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
88.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.91
8
Trailing Matches
11
37.5%
Non-loss rate
45.5%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals 50
77
Halftime Coverage Matches
72
0.96
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
1.01
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.97
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
74.05
Rest days
83.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.78
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
46
Normal Rest History Matches
53
2.04
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.08
21
Long Rest History Matches
13
1.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.77
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
12
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.33
1.67
Portability PPG Range
0.86
50.42
Portability Score
59.99
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
77
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO12.00
PPG-0.07
GF0.22
GA0.26
PPG0.51
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate8.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.22
Goals Std0.19
Scored 1+ rate3.8%
Scored 2+ rate2.8%
Scored 3+ rate2.3%
Venue Goals Mean0.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.01
History Matches5
Conceded Mean0.26
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate4.9%
Conceded 3+ rate6.1%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.57
History Matches5
Result entropy0.03
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score-2.65
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.94
Eligible Matches5
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.06
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate-0.08
Trailing Win Rate6.8%
Halftime Coverage Matches5
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.16
Portability PPG Range0.81
Portability Score-9.57
Rest days-8.99
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.22
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.18
Current Team ELO12.00
Current Opponent ELO-12.00
Current ELO Difference24.00
Expected score0.03
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.17
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Hapoel Beer Sheva
W
Maccabi Haifa2–5Hapoel Beer Sheva26 Oct · away
Pick: Hapoel Beer Sheva 47% · hit L
Union St. Gilloise4–0Hapoel Beer Sheva22 Oct · away
Pick: Union St. Gilloise 46% · hit L
AZ Alkmaar2–1Hapoel Beer Sheva15 Oct · away
Pick: AZ Alkmaar 49% · hit W
Hapoel Ramat Gan1–2Hapoel Beer Sheva29 Aug · away
Pick: Hapoel Beer Sheva 43% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Hapoel Tel Aviv
W
Hapoel Tel Aviv2–1Maccabi Haifa2 Nov · home
Pick: Hapoel Tel Aviv 50% · hit W
Maccabi Tel Aviv2–3Hapoel Tel Aviv29 Oct · away
Pick: Maccabi Tel Aviv 53% · missed W
Hapoel Katamon0–3Hapoel Tel Aviv24 Oct · away
Pick: Hapoel Tel Aviv 41% · hit D
Hapoel Haifa0–0Hapoel Tel Aviv30 Aug · away
Pick: Hapoel Tel Aviv 48% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Hapoel Beer Sheva and Hapoel Tel Aviv meet in Ligat Ha'al on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. The match is played at Toto Turner Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hapoel Beer Sheva win 50.2%, draw 23.7%, Hapoel Tel Aviv win 26.0%. The pick is Hapoel Beer Sheva win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.8%. Both teams to score: 54.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.