ScoreProb
Ligat Ha'al Israel Round 10 2026

Ironi Kiryat Shmona vs Hapoel Haifa

Ironi Kiryat Shmona Home · Elo 1,495
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hapoel Haifa Away · Elo 1,501
Kiryat Shmona Municipal Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ironi Kiryat Shmona win
Ironi Kiryat Shmona winPick
37.6%
Draw
26.4%
Hapoel Haifa win
36.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.1%
No41.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.6%
Under 2.541.4%

How much we know

Ironi Kiryat Shmona history59 matches
Hapoel Haifa history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (37.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Ironi Kiryat Shmona are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,495 against 1,501. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.36 goals a game over 59 matches for Ironi Kiryat Shmona, against 1.36 over 61 for Hapoel Haifa.

  • Ironi Kiryat Shmona concede fewer

    Ironi Kiryat Shmona concede 1.47 a game, Hapoel Haifa 1.69.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    56% of Ironi Kiryat Shmona matches, against 52% for Hapoel Haifa. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ironi Kiryat Shmona
Hapoel Haifa@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1495.4
ELO
1500.6
59
ELO · Matches
61
1495.4
Current Team ELO
1500.6
1500.6
Current Opponent ELO
1495.4
-5.17
Current ELO Difference
5.17
0.49
Expected score
0.51
59
History Matches
61
0.00
Residual Mean
0.01
49.65
Overperformance
50.51
0.15
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.30
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.60
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
2.20
1.90
Goals for per game
2.00
0.90
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.04
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.18
0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.04
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.67
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.84
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
61
1.25
PPG
1.30
37.3%
Win rate
36.1%
13.6%
Draw rate
21.3%
49.2%
Loss rate
42.6%
74.6%
Over 1.5 rate
77.0%
55.9%
Over 2.5 rate
52.5%
32.2%
Over 3.5 rate
39.3%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
29
1.34
PPG
1.28
41.4%
Win rate
34.5%
10.3%
Draw rate
24.1%
48.3%
Loss rate
41.4%
79.3%
Over 1.5 rate
72.4%
62.1%
Over 2.5 rate
48.3%
24.1%
Over 3.5 rate
34.5%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
29
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
1.36
78.0%
Scoring rate
72.1%
55.9%
BTTS rate
52.5%
1.34
Goals for per game
1.10
79.3%
Scoring rate
62.1%
55.2%
BTTS rate
44.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
—
100.0%
Scoring rate
—
100.0%
BTTS rate
—
59
History Matches
61
1.36
Goals Mean
1.36
1.12
Goals Std
1.23
78.0%
Scored 1+ rate
72.1%
35.6%
Scored 2+ rate
37.7%
16.9%
Scored 3+ rate
18.0%
1.34
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.47
Goals against per game
1.69
72.9%
Conceding rate
75.4%
1.34
Goals against per game
1.72
72.4%
Conceding rate
75.9%
2.00
Goals against per game
—
100.0%
Conceding rate
—
59
History Matches
61
1.47
Conceded Mean
1.69
1.21
Conceded Std
1.42
49.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
49.2%
16.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.9%
1.34
Venue Conceded Mean
1.72
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
22.0%
Failed-to-score rate
27.9%
27.6%
Clean-sheet rate
24.1%
20.7%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
61
0.90
Result entropy
0.97
1.64
Goal Difference Std
1.89
10.08
Stability score
3.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
59
Eligible Matches
60
14
Lead Matches
16
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
68.8%
0.76
Lead Points Retention
0.75
23
Trailing Matches
18
26.1%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
13.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
59
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.73
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
84.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
4
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
37
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
18
Long Rest History Matches
22
1.17
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.41
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
0
0.00
PPG
—
0.0%
Win rate
—
0.0%
Draw rate
—
100.0%
Loss rate
—
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1
Current Competition Matches
0
0.00
Current Competition PPG
—
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.52
1.40
Portability PPG Range
1.37
47.48
Portability Score
49.01
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-5.17
PPG-0.04
GF0.00
GA-0.21
PPG0.07
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate2.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate3.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std-0.11
Scored 1+ rate5.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.14
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.21
Conceded Std-0.21
Clean-sheet rate2.5%
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.04
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std-0.25
Stability score6.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate2.7%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate9.4%
Trailing Win Rate7.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches1
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.03
Portability PPG Range0.03
Portability Score-1.54
Rest days-6.98
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.01
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.24
Current Team ELO-5.17
Current Opponent ELO5.17
Current ELO Difference-10.34
Expected score-0.01
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.85
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ironi Kiryat Shmona

L
Ironi Kiryat Shmona0–1Bnei Sakhnin24 Oct · home
Pick: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 40% · missed
W
Ironi Kiryat Shmona2–0Ironi Tiberias29 Aug · home
Pick: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Hapoel Haifa

L
Maccabi Tel Aviv6–2Hapoel Haifa24 Oct · away
Pick: Maccabi Tel Aviv 62% · hit
D
Hapoel Haifa0–0Hapoel Tel Aviv30 Aug · home
Pick: Hapoel Tel Aviv 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ironi Kiryat Shmona and Hapoel Haifa meet in Ligat Ha'al on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. The match is played at Kiryat Shmona Municipal Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ironi Kiryat Shmona win 37.6%, draw 26.4%, Hapoel Haifa win 36.0%. The pick is Ironi Kiryat Shmona win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.6%. Both teams to score: 58.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.