ScoreProb
Ligat Ha'al Israel Round 10 2026

Hapoel Katamon vs Bnei Sakhnin

Hapoel Katamon Home · Elo 1,505
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bnei Sakhnin Away · Elo 1,410
Teddy Stadium, Jerusalem Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hapoel Katamon win
Hapoel Katamon winPick
41.4%
Draw
28.2%
Bnei Sakhnin win
30.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.1%
No52.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.3%
Under 2.551.7%

How much we know

Hapoel Katamon history62 matches
Bnei Sakhnin history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Hapoel Katamon are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hapoel Katamon are rated 96 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,505 against 1,410. On rating alone Hapoel Katamon would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Hapoel Katamon score more

    1.24 goals a game over 62 matches for Hapoel Katamon, against 0.83 over 58 for Bnei Sakhnin.

  • Defences are close

    Hapoel Katamon concede 1.26 a game, Bnei Sakhnin 1.40.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    48% of Hapoel Katamon matches, against 41% for Bnei Sakhnin. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hapoel Katamon
Bnei Sakhnin@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1505.2
ELO
1409.5
62
ELO · Matches
58
1505.2
Current Team ELO
1409.5
1409.5
Current Opponent ELO
1505.2
95.70
Current ELO Difference
-95.70
0.63
Expected score
0.37
62
History Matches
58
0.00
Residual Mean
-0.07
49.70
Overperformance
44.53
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
0.80
1.80
Goals for per game
0.40
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
0.40
1.30
Goals for per game
0.30
1.50
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.30
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.46
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.57
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.35
Overall performance9 signals
90
62
Matches
58
1.32
PPG
1.02
35.5%
Win rate
25.9%
25.8%
Draw rate
24.1%
38.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
71.0%
Over 1.5 rate
65.5%
48.4%
Over 2.5 rate
41.4%
25.8%
Over 3.5 rate
17.2%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.61
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
28
1.50
PPG
0.93
42.9%
Win rate
25.0%
21.4%
Draw rate
17.9%
35.7%
Loss rate
57.1%
64.3%
Over 1.5 rate
67.9%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
53.6%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
28
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.24
Goals for per game
0.83
74.2%
Scoring rate
55.2%
51.6%
BTTS rate
37.9%
1.32
Goals for per game
0.86
67.9%
Scoring rate
60.7%
39.3%
BTTS rate
46.4%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
62
History Matches
58
1.24
Goals Mean
0.83
1.09
Goals Std
0.87
74.2%
Scored 1+ rate
55.2%
32.3%
Scored 2+ rate
24.1%
11.3%
Scored 3+ rate
3.4%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
0.86
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.26
Goals against per game
1.40
64.5%
Conceding rate
70.7%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.64
53.6%
Conceding rate
78.6%
5.00
Goals against per game
0.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
0.0%
62
History Matches
58
1.26
Conceded Mean
1.40
1.26
Conceded Std
1.27
38.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.4%
14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.2%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.64
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
44.8%
46.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
100.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
25.8%
Failed-to-score rate
44.8%
46.4%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
39.3%
35.5%
Clean-sheet rate
29.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
62
History Matches
58
0.99
Result entropy
0.95
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.61
1.28
Stability score
5.39
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
61
Eligible Matches
58
23
Lead Matches
13
69.6%
Lead Win Rate
76.9%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.82
14
Trailing Matches
18
0.0%
Non-loss rate
16.7%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
61
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.59
First Half Goals For Mean
0.40
0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.43
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.03
Rest days
75.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.80
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.33
34
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.21
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.09
22
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.05
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
100.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.00
-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
8
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.23
1.06
Portability PPG Range
0.63
55.14
Portability Score
68.61
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
62
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO95.70
PPG0.31
GF0.41
GA-0.14
PPG-1.00
PPG0.57
PPG1.20
PPG1.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate6.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate25.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.41
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate19.0%
Scored 2+ rate8.1%
Scored 3+ rate7.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std0.44
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.14
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate6.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.37
History Matches4
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score-4.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.43
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches10
Lead Win Rate-0.07
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.17
Trailing Win Rate-0.06
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.19
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.01
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.18
Portability PPG Range0.43
Portability Score-13.47
Rest days0.99
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match1.47
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.12
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.27
Current Team ELO95.70
Current Opponent ELO-95.70
Current ELO Difference191.4
Expected score0.27
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.07
Overperformance5.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.36

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hapoel Katamon

L
Hapoel Katamon0–3Hapoel Tel Aviv24 Oct · home
Pick: Hapoel Tel Aviv 41% · hit
L
Hapoel Katamon1–4Maccabi Haifa12 Oct · home
Pick: Maccabi Haifa 46% · hit
L
Hapoel Petah Tikva1–0Hapoel Katamon29 Aug · away
Pick: Hapoel Petah Tikva 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bnei Sakhnin

W
Ironi Kiryat Shmona0–1Bnei Sakhnin24 Oct · away
Pick: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 40% · missed
L
Bnei Sakhnin1–2Maccabi Petah Tikva29 Aug · home
Pick: Maccabi Petah Tikva 39% · hit
D
Maccabi Netanya0–0Bnei Sakhnin24 Aug · away
Pick: Maccabi Netanya 52% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Hapoel Katamon and Bnei Sakhnin meet in Ligat Ha'al on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. The match is played at Teddy Stadium, Jerusalem. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Hapoel Katamon win 41.4%, draw 28.2%, Bnei Sakhnin win 30.3%. The pick is Hapoel Katamon win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.3%. Both teams to score: 47.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.