ScoreProb
Ligat Ha'al Israel Round 10 2026

Ironi Tiberias vs Beitar Jerusalem

Ironi Tiberias Home · Elo 1,470
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Beitar Jerusalem Away · Elo 1,646
Green Stadium, Nof HaGalil Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Beitar Jerusalem win
Ironi Tiberias win
25.9%
Draw
24.0%
Beitar Jerusalem winPick
50.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.6%
No51.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.2%
Under 2.543.8%

How much we know

Ironi Tiberias history59 matches
Beitar Jerusalem history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Beitar Jerusalem are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Beitar Jerusalem are rated 176 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,646 against 1,470. On rating alone Beitar Jerusalem would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.

  • Beitar Jerusalem score far more

    1.20 goals a game over 59 matches for Ironi Tiberias, against 1.90 over 72 for Beitar Jerusalem.

  • Beitar Jerusalem concede fewer

    Ironi Tiberias concede 1.68 a game, Beitar Jerusalem 1.31.

  • Beitar Jerusalem games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Ironi Tiberias matches, against 64% for Beitar Jerusalem. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ironi Tiberias
Beitar Jerusalem@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1469.6
ELO
1645.6
59
ELO · Matches
72
1469.6
Current Team ELO
1645.6
1645.6
Current Opponent ELO
1469.6
-176.0
Current ELO Difference
176.0
0.27
Expected score
0.73
59
History Matches
72
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.10
48.31
Overperformance
57.45
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.09
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.40
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
2.20
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.20
1.30
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.63
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.62
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.63
Overall performance9 signals
90
59
Matches
72
1.17
PPG
1.78
32.2%
Win rate
50.0%
20.3%
Draw rate
27.8%
47.5%
Loss rate
22.2%
81.4%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
50.8%
Over 2.5 rate
63.9%
30.5%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
2.02
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
Venue performance10 signals
100
30
Matches
38
1.57
PPG
1.95
46.7%
Win rate
57.9%
16.7%
Draw rate
21.1%
36.7%
Loss rate
21.1%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
71.1%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
39.5%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
30
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.20
Goals for per game
1.90
72.9%
Scoring rate
80.6%
50.8%
BTTS rate
65.3%
1.27
Goals for per game
2.05
76.7%
Scoring rate
84.2%
46.7%
BTTS rate
65.8%
1.00
Goals for per game
—
100.0%
Scoring rate
—
0.0%
BTTS rate
—
59
History Matches
72
1.20
Goals Mean
1.90
1.00
Goals Std
1.62
72.9%
Scored 1+ rate
80.6%
35.6%
Scored 2+ rate
55.6%
8.5%
Scored 3+ rate
26.4%
1.27
Venue Goals Mean
2.05
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.68
Goals against per game
1.31
72.9%
Conceding rate
76.4%
1.30
Goals against per game
1.39
63.3%
Conceding rate
76.3%
0.00
Goals against per game
—
0.0%
Conceding rate
—
59
History Matches
72
1.68
Conceded Mean
1.31
1.57
Conceded Std
1.05
45.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.5%
27.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.9%
1.30
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
27.1%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
36.7%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
23.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
59
History Matches
72
0.95
Result entropy
0.94
2.02
Goal Difference Std
1.85
5.10
Stability score
5.64
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
58
Eligible Matches
71
13
Lead Matches
22
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.94
25
Trailing Matches
16
28.0%
Non-loss rate
43.8%
4.0%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
58
Halftime Coverage Matches
71
0.52
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.84
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.71
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.18
0.84
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
82.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
6
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
27
Normal Rest History Matches
46
1.19
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
26
Long Rest History Matches
19
1.23
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.89
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
0
3.00
PPG
—
100.0%
Win rate
—
0.0%
Draw rate
—
0.0%
Loss rate
—
0.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1
Current Competition Matches
0
3.00
Current Competition PPG
—
1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
7
Competition Season Count
9
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.29
Portability PPG Std
0.64
0.73
Portability PPG Range
2.06
63.46
Portability Score
43.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
59
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-176.0
PPG-0.61
GF-0.70
GA0.37
PPG-0.38
PPG-0.80
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-13
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Failed-to-score rate7.7%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate13.0%
Failed-to-score rate7.5%
History Matches-13
Goals Mean-0.70
Goals Std-0.61
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Goals Mean-0.79
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.27
History Matches-13
Conceded Mean0.37
Conceded Std0.52
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Conceded 2+ rate8.3%
Conceded 3+ rate13.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.31
History Matches-13
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.17
Stability score-0.54
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.23
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.98
Eligible Matches-13
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.14
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate-0.21
Halftime Coverage Matches-13
First Half Goals For Mean-0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.21
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.48
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Current Competition Matches1
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.35
Portability PPG Range-1.33
Portability Score19.55
Rest days-5.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.33
Normal Rest History Matches-19
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.49
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.66
Current Team ELO-176.0
Current Opponent ELO176.0
Current ELO Difference-352.1
Expected score-0.47
History Matches-13
Residual Mean-0.12
Overperformance-9.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ironi Tiberias

D
Ironi Tiberias1–1Maccabi Netanya24 Oct · home
Pick: Ironi Tiberias 43% · missed
L
Ironi Kiryat Shmona2–0Ironi Tiberias29 Aug · away
Pick: Ironi Kiryat Shmona 41% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Beitar Jerusalem

D
Beitar Jerusalem0–0Maccabi Tel Aviv19 Oct · home
Pick: Maccabi Tel Aviv 43% · missed
L
Beitar Jerusalem1–4Maccabi Netanya29 Aug · home
Pick: Beitar Jerusalem 60% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Ironi Tiberias and Beitar Jerusalem meet in Ligat Ha'al on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. The match is played at Green Stadium, Nof HaGalil. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ironi Tiberias win 25.9%, draw 24.0%, Beitar Jerusalem win 50.1%. The pick is Beitar Jerusalem win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.2%. Both teams to score: 48.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.