Maccabi Tel Aviv vs Maccabi Petah Tikva
Match result probability Model pick: Maccabi Tel Aviv win
Maccabi Tel Aviv winPick
65.7%
Draw
18.5%
Maccabi Petah Tikva win
15.8%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes60.2%
No39.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.566.0%
Under 2.534.0%
How much we know
Maccabi Tel Aviv history81 matches
Maccabi Petah Tikva history56 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Maccabi Tel Aviv
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 17:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (65.7%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.
Why Maccabi Tel Aviv are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Maccabi Tel Aviv are rated 111 Elo points higher
Elo 1,655 against 1,544. On rating alone Maccabi Tel Aviv would be expected to take 65% of the points on offer.
-
Maccabi Tel Aviv score more
1.99 goals a game over 81 matches for Maccabi Tel Aviv, against 1.75 over 56 for Maccabi Petah Tikva.
-
Maccabi Petah Tikva concede fewer
Maccabi Tel Aviv concede 1.30 a game, Maccabi Petah Tikva 1.14.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
67% of Maccabi Tel Aviv matches, against 59% for Maccabi Petah Tikva. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Maccabi Petah Tikva@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1654.9
ELO
1544.3
81
ELO · Matches
56
1654.9
Current Team ELO
1544.3
1544.3
Current Opponent ELO
1654.9
110.6
Current ELO Difference
-110.6
0.65
Expected score
0.35
81
History Matches
56
0.10
Residual Mean
0.04
57.72
Overperformance
52.60
0.23
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.80
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
1.50
2.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.10
Goals against per game
1.00
70.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.72
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.28
Overall performance9 signals 90
81
Matches
56
1.78
PPG
1.54
53.1%
Win rate
41.1%
18.5%
Draw rate
30.4%
28.4%
Loss rate
28.6%
81.5%
Over 1.5 rate
78.6%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
58.9%
48.1%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
2.26
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals 100
41
Matches
29
1.76
PPG
1.41
53.7%
Win rate
34.5%
14.6%
Draw rate
37.9%
31.7%
Loss rate
27.6%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
69.0%
68.3%
Over 2.5 rate
48.3%
41.5%
Over 3.5 rate
27.6%
2.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
41
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.99
Goals for per game
1.75
81.5%
Scoring rate
75.0%
59.3%
BTTS rate
62.5%
1.85
Goals for per game
1.48
82.9%
Scoring rate
62.1%
53.7%
BTTS rate
51.7%
5.00
Goals for per game
2.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
81
History Matches
56
1.99
Goals Mean
1.75
1.54
Goals Std
1.55
81.5%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
54.3%
Scored 2+ rate
55.4%
37.0%
Scored 3+ rate
19.6%
1.85
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.14
74.1%
Conceding rate
76.8%
1.34
Goals against per game
1.03
70.7%
Conceding rate
72.4%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
81
History Matches
56
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.14
1.29
Conceded Std
0.83
28.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.1%
14.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.4%
1.34
Venue Conceded Mean
1.03
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
29.3%
Clean-sheet rate
27.6%
17.1%
Failed-to-score rate
37.9%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
23.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
81
History Matches
56
0.92
Result entropy
0.99
2.26
Goal Difference Std
1.77
8.43
Stability score
1.21
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
81
Eligible Matches
56
32
Lead Matches
20
87.5%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.90
Lead Points Retention
0.82
20
Trailing Matches
8
20.0%
Non-loss rate
37.5%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals 50
81
Halftime Coverage Matches
56
0.90
First Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.36
1.09
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
76.03
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
13
Short Rest History Matches
2
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
48
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.81
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
19
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.63
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.39
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
1
3.00
PPG
3.00
100.0%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1
Current Competition Matches
1
3.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.00
13
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.61
Portability PPG Std
0.33
1.77
Portability PPG Range
0.78
44.97
Portability Score
60.26
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
81
Clean History Matches
56
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO110.6
PPG0.24
GF0.24
GA0.15
PPG0.00
PPG0.34
PPG0.60
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches25
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate1.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.21
History Matches25
Goals Mean0.24
Goals Std-0.01
Scored 1+ rate6.5%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate17.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.37
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.70
History Matches25
Conceded Mean0.15
Conceded Std0.46
Clean-sheet rate2.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate9.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.31
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches25
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std0.49
Stability score7.22
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.26
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.79
Eligible Matches25
Lead Matches12
Lead Win Rate12.5%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches12
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.03
Halftime Coverage Matches25
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count8
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std0.28
Portability PPG Range0.99
Portability Score-15.29
Rest days-1.01
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches11
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches13
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.21
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.24
Current Team ELO110.6
Current Opponent ELO-110.6
Current ELO Difference221.2
Expected score0.31
History Matches25
Residual Mean0.06
Overperformance5.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.21
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Maccabi Tel Aviv
L
Maccabi Tel Aviv2–3Hapoel Tel Aviv29 Oct · home
Pick: Maccabi Tel Aviv 53% · missed W
Maccabi Tel Aviv6–2Hapoel Haifa24 Oct · home
Pick: Maccabi Tel Aviv 62% · hit D
Beitar Jerusalem0–0Maccabi Tel Aviv19 Oct · away
Pick: Maccabi Tel Aviv 43% · missed W
Maccabi Tel Aviv3–1Maccabi Haifa31 Aug · home
Pick: Maccabi Tel Aviv 64% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Maccabi Petah Tikva
W
Hapoel Ramat Gan1–2Maccabi Petah Tikva24 Oct · away
Pick: Hapoel Ramat Gan 44% · missed W
Bnei Sakhnin1–2Maccabi Petah Tikva29 Aug · away
Pick: Maccabi Petah Tikva 39% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Maccabi Tel Aviv and Maccabi Petah Tikva meet in Ligat Ha'al on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. The match is played at Bloomfield Stadium, Tel Aviv. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Maccabi Tel Aviv win 65.7%, draw 18.5%, Maccabi Petah Tikva win 15.8%. The pick is Maccabi Tel Aviv win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.0%. Both teams to score: 60.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.