Hebburn Town vs Guiseley AFC
Match result probability Model pick: Hebburn Town win
Hebburn Town winPick
39.7%
Draw
24.7%
Guiseley AFC win
35.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.2%
No44.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.555.9%
Under 2.544.1%
How much we know
Hebburn Town history70 matches
Guiseley AFC history72 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Hebburn Town
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.7%). Picks in that band won 39.9% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,949 matches.
Why Hebburn Town are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Hebburn Town are rated 100 Elo points higher
Elo 1,618 against 1,518. On rating alone Hebburn Town would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.
-
Hebburn Town score more
1.73 goals a game over 70 matches for Hebburn Town, against 1.29 over 72 for Guiseley AFC.
-
Defences are close
Hebburn Town concede 1.23 a game, Guiseley AFC 1.32.
-
Hebburn Town games more often go over 2.5 goals
51% of Hebburn Town matches, against 42% for Guiseley AFC. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Guiseley AFC@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1617.9
ELO
1517.6
70
ELO · Matches
72
1617.9
Current Team ELO
1517.6
1517.6
Current Opponent ELO
1617.9
100.4
Current ELO Difference
-100.4
0.64
Expected score
0.36
70
History Matches
72
0.08
Residual Mean
0.01
56.51
Overperformance
50.59
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.30
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
2.60
2.20
Goals for per game
2.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.10
PPG
2.30
2.20
Goals for per game
2.10
1.40
Goals against per game
1.10
60.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.02
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.83
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
0.98
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.10
Overall performance9 signals 90
70
Matches
72
1.69
PPG
1.33
47.1%
Win rate
36.1%
27.1%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.7%
Loss rate
38.9%
75.7%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
51.4%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
26.4%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.76
Venue performance10 signals 100
35
Matches
38
1.89
PPG
1.24
54.3%
Win rate
34.2%
25.7%
Draw rate
21.1%
20.0%
Loss rate
44.7%
74.3%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
48.6%
Over 2.5 rate
34.2%
31.4%
Over 3.5 rate
21.1%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.60
35
History Matches
38
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.73
Goals for per game
1.29
81.4%
Scoring rate
70.8%
58.6%
BTTS rate
51.4%
1.94
Goals for per game
1.08
85.7%
Scoring rate
60.5%
54.3%
BTTS rate
42.1%
70
History Matches
72
1.73
Goals Mean
1.29
1.46
Goals Std
1.22
81.4%
Scored 1+ rate
70.8%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
30.6%
21.4%
Scored 3+ rate
20.8%
1.94
Venue Goals Mean
1.08
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.23
Goals against per game
1.32
71.4%
Conceding rate
76.4%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.24
65.7%
Conceding rate
76.3%
70
History Matches
72
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.32
1.19
Conceded Std
1.10
27.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.3%
17.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.9%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
39.5%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
18.6%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.7%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
39.5%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
23.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
70
History Matches
72
0.96
Result entropy
0.98
1.93
Goal Difference Std
1.76
3.72
Stability score
1.54
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
70
Eligible Matches
70
24
Lead Matches
24
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
70.8%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.79
17
Trailing Matches
25
47.1%
Non-loss rate
24.0%
23.5%
Trailing Win Rate
8.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
70
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.79
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
0.94
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.61
0.63
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
80.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
58
Normal Rest History Matches
58
1.57
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.43
9
Long Rest History Matches
9
2.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
8
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.67
Portability PPG Std
0.45
1.75
Portability PPG Range
0.97
42.74
Portability Score
52.88
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
70
Clean History Matches
72
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO100.4
PPG0.35
GF0.44
GA-0.09
PPG0.65
PPG0.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate10.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.25
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.44
Goals Std0.24
Scored 1+ rate10.6%
Scored 2+ rate19.4%
Scored 3+ rate0.6%
Venue Goals Mean0.86
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.04
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.09
Conceded Std0.08
Clean-sheet rate5.0%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate10.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.24
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.19
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score2.18
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.12
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches0
Lead Win Rate12.5%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate23.1%
Trailing Win Rate15.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.14
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals For Mean0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.22
Portability PPG Range0.78
Portability Score-10.13
Rest days3.20
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.14
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match1.22
Current Team ELO100.4
Current Opponent ELO-100.4
Current ELO Difference200.7
Expected score0.28
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance5.92
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Hebburn Town
L
Merthyr Town4–1Hebburn Town7 Nov · away
Pick: Merthyr Town 42% · hit D
Hebburn Town1–1Harborough Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Hebburn Town 46% · missed D
AFC Telford United2–2Hebburn Town24 Oct · away
Pick: AFC Telford United 40% · missed L
Hebburn Town0–2Scarborough Athletic17 Oct · home
Pick: Hebburn Town 55% · missed L
Macclesfield3–0Hebburn Town31 Aug · away
Pick: Macclesfield 43% · hit Guiseley AFC
W
Guiseley AFC1–0Sutton Utd7 Nov · home
Pick: Sutton Utd 46% · missed W
Guiseley AFC4–1Leek Town3 Nov · home
Pick: Guiseley AFC 50% · hit D
Redcar Athletic2–2Guiseley AFC31 Oct · away
Pick: Redcar Athletic 39% · missed W
Rylands1–3Guiseley AFC24 Oct · away
Pick: Guiseley AFC 39% · hit W
Guiseley AFC2–1Cleethorpes Town20 Oct · home
Pick: Cleethorpes Town 43% · missed About this match
Hebburn Town and Guiseley AFC meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Hebburn Town win 39.7%, draw 24.7%, Guiseley AFC win 35.7%. The pick is Hebburn Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.9%. Both teams to score: 55.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.