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Derde Divisie Netherlands Round 13 2026

Hercules vs VV Scherpenzeel

Hercules Home · Elo 1,471
Sat 14 Nov
UTC
Not started
VV Scherpenzeel Away · Elo 1,497
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hercules win
Hercules winPick
40.8%
Draw
22.2%
VV Scherpenzeel win
36.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes61.3%
No38.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.5%
Under 2.533.5%

How much we know

Hercules history55 matches
VV Scherpenzeel history35 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    14 Nov · 14:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (40.8%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.

Why Hercules are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • VV Scherpenzeel are rated 26 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,497 against 1,471. On rating alone VV Scherpenzeel would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • VV Scherpenzeel score more

    1.53 goals a game over 55 matches for Hercules, against 1.80 over 35 for VV Scherpenzeel.

  • VV Scherpenzeel concede fewer

    Hercules concede 1.85 a game, VV Scherpenzeel 1.60.

  • VV Scherpenzeel games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Hercules matches, against 69% for VV Scherpenzeel. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Hercules
VV Scherpenzeel@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1471.1
ELO
1497.0
55
ELO · Matches
35
1471.1
Current Team ELO
1497.0
1497.0
Current Opponent ELO
1471.1
-25.94
Current ELO Difference
25.94
0.46
Expected score
0.54
55
History Matches
35
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.00
47.86
Overperformance
49.89
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
1.40
1.20
Goals for per game
2.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.10
2.10
Goals for per game
1.70
1.50
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
2.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.28
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
35
1.13
PPG
1.40
30.9%
Win rate
40.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
49.1%
Loss rate
40.0%
78.2%
Over 1.5 rate
82.9%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
68.6%
47.3%
Over 3.5 rate
48.6%
2.13
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.29
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
17
1.69
PPG
1.06
50.0%
Win rate
29.4%
19.2%
Draw rate
17.6%
30.8%
Loss rate
52.9%
73.1%
Over 1.5 rate
70.6%
53.8%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
34.6%
Over 3.5 rate
52.9%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.35
26
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.53
Goals for per game
1.80
74.5%
Scoring rate
80.0%
54.5%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.58
Goals for per game
1.35
80.8%
Scoring rate
64.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
47.1%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.50
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
35
1.53
Goals Mean
1.80
1.41
Goals Std
1.47
74.5%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
43.6%
Scored 2+ rate
45.7%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
31.4%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.35
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.85
Goals against per game
1.60
74.5%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.31
Goals against per game
1.65
65.4%
Conceding rate
70.6%
3.50
Goals against per game
2.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
55
History Matches
35
1.85
Conceded Mean
1.60
1.57
Conceded Std
1.48
54.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.0%
32.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
31.4%
1.31
Venue Conceded Mean
1.65
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
34.6%
Clean-sheet rate
29.4%
19.2%
Failed-to-score rate
35.3%
25.5%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
35
0.94
Result entropy
0.96
2.13
Goal Difference Std
2.29
5.87
Stability score
3.98
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
25
8
Lead Matches
7
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.90
12
Trailing Matches
5
33.3%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
25
0.58
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
1.07
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.32
1.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
84.04
Rest days
84.06
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
20
0.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.60
29
Long Rest History Matches
14
1.55
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
0.00
PPG
1.50
0.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
-3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
6
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.41
Portability PPG Std
—
0.98
Portability PPG Range
—
55.10
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
35
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-25.94
PPG-0.27
GF-0.27
GA0.25
PPG-1.50
PPG0.63
PPG-0.40
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate5.5%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.16
History Matches20
Goals Mean-0.27
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean0.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.41
History Matches20
Conceded Mean0.25
Conceded Std0.09
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Conceded 2+ rate14.5%
Conceded 3+ rate1.3%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.02
History Matches20
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.16
Stability score1.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.45
Eligible Matches18
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate14.3%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate8.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches18
First Half Goals For Mean-0.06
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.50
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days-0.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.92
Long Rest History Matches15
Long Rest Points Per Match0.34
Current Team ELO-25.94
Current Opponent ELO25.94
Current ELO Difference-51.87
Expected score-0.07
History Matches20
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-2.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.22

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Hercules

W
SVZW2–3Hercules7 Nov · away
Pick: SVZW 46% · missed
W
Hercules4–1Staphorst24 Oct · home
Pick: Hercules 42% · hit
L
Eemdijk2–0Hercules17 Oct · away
Pick: Eemdijk 52% · hit
L
Harkemase Boys5–3Hercules29 Aug · away
Pick: Harkemase Boys 61% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

VV Scherpenzeel

W
VV Scherpenzeel3–1DVS 33 Ermelo7 Nov · home
Pick: VV Scherpenzeel 45% · hit
D
Hollandia2–2VV Scherpenzeel25 Oct · away
Pick: VV Scherpenzeel 43% · missed
D
VV Scherpenzeel1–1TEC17 Oct · home
Pick: TEC 48% · missed
L
AFC '344–1VV Scherpenzeel1 Sep · away
Pick: VV Scherpenzeel 39% · missed
W
Dovo2–3VV Scherpenzeel29 Aug · away
Pick: Dovo 54% · missed

About this match

Hercules and VV Scherpenzeel meet in Derde Divisie on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 14:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: Hercules win 40.8%, draw 22.2%, VV Scherpenzeel win 36.9%. The pick is Hercules win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.5%. Both teams to score: 61.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.