King's Lynn Town vs Stourbridge
Match result probability Model pick: King's Lynn Town win
King's Lynn Town winPick
47.9%
Draw
21.7%
Stourbridge win
30.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes55.1%
No44.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.556.7%
Under 2.543.3%
How much we know
King's Lynn Town history76 matches
Stourbridge history65 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours King's Lynn Town
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead8 Nov · 08:45 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre14 Nov · 15:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 16,809 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 39.9% · said 37.7% · n 2,949
40–49% Won 45.3% · said 44.8% · n 6,860
50–59% Won 55.6% · said 54.4% · n 4,146
60–69% Won 63.9% · said 64.4% · n 2,031
70–79% Won 76.5% · said 73.9% · n 646
80%+ Won 83.1% · said 84.5% · n 177
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.9%). Picks in that band won 45.3% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,860 matches.
Why King's Lynn Town are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Stourbridge are rated 31 Elo points higher
Elo 1,508 against 1,477. On rating alone Stourbridge would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Stourbridge score more
1.18 goals a game over 76 matches for King's Lynn Town, against 1.46 over 65 for Stourbridge.
-
King's Lynn Town concede fewer
King's Lynn Town concede 1.32 a game, Stourbridge 1.60.
-
Stourbridge games more often go over 2.5 goals
39% of King's Lynn Town matches, against 57% for Stourbridge. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Stourbridge@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1477.4
ELO
1508.3
76
ELO · Matches
65
1477.4
Current Team ELO
1508.3
1508.3
Current Opponent ELO
1477.4
-30.85
Current ELO Difference
30.85
0.46
Expected score
0.54
76
History Matches
65
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
48.73
Overperformance
50.41
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.09
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.80
1.80
Goals against per game
2.20
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.70
Goals against per game
1.40
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.75
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.35
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.18
Overall performance9 signals 90
76
Matches
65
1.25
PPG
1.31
31.6%
Win rate
33.8%
30.3%
Draw rate
29.2%
38.2%
Loss rate
36.9%
71.1%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
39.5%
Over 2.5 rate
56.9%
27.6%
Over 3.5 rate
41.5%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
Venue performance10 signals 100
37
Matches
33
1.08
PPG
1.24
24.3%
Win rate
33.3%
35.1%
Draw rate
24.2%
40.5%
Loss rate
42.4%
73.0%
Over 1.5 rate
93.9%
37.8%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
21.6%
Over 3.5 rate
45.5%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.99
37
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.18
Goals for per game
1.46
65.8%
Scoring rate
76.9%
44.7%
BTTS rate
58.5%
1.03
Goals for per game
1.48
62.2%
Scoring rate
78.8%
45.9%
BTTS rate
60.6%
76
History Matches
65
1.18
Goals Mean
1.46
1.25
Goals Std
1.19
65.8%
Scored 1+ rate
76.9%
30.3%
Scored 2+ rate
44.6%
11.8%
Scored 3+ rate
15.4%
1.03
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.32
Goals against per game
1.60
69.7%
Conceding rate
76.9%
1.27
Goals against per game
1.79
73.0%
Conceding rate
78.8%
76
History Matches
65
1.32
Conceded Mean
1.60
1.23
Conceded Std
1.29
36.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
44.6%
15.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
32.3%
1.27
Venue Conceded Mean
1.79
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
34.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
37.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
34.2%
Failed-to-score rate
23.1%
27.0%
Clean-sheet rate
21.2%
37.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.2%
30.3%
Clean-sheet rate
23.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
76
History Matches
65
1.00
Result entropy
1.00
1.84
Goal Difference Std
1.90
0.48
Stability score
0.41
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
76
Eligible Matches
65
20
Lead Matches
21
70.0%
Lead Win Rate
71.4%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.78
29
Trailing Matches
21
31.0%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
3.4%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals 50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
65
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.69
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.83
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
84.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.13
64
Normal Rest History Matches
50
1.31
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
8
Long Rest History Matches
6
0.88
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
8
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.47
1.00
Portability PPG Range
1.14
54.80
Portability Score
51.40
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
76
Clean History Matches
65
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-30.85
PPG-0.06
GF-0.28
GA-0.28
PPG-0.16
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate7.2%
Failed-to-score rate11.1%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate5.8%
Failed-to-score rate16.6%
History Matches11
Goals Mean-0.28
Goals Std0.06
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.45
History Matches11
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate7.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Conceded Mean-0.52
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.15
History Matches11
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score0.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.67
Eligible Matches11
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.01
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate2.5%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.13
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.12
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.06
Portability PPG Range-0.14
Portability Score3.40
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-5
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.01
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.46
Current Team ELO-30.85
Current Opponent ELO30.85
Current ELO Difference-61.71
Expected score-0.09
History Matches11
Residual Mean-0.02
Overperformance-1.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.22
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
King's Lynn Town
W
King's Lynn Town2–0Spennymoor Town7 Nov · home
Pick: King's Lynn Town 42% · hit W
Hereford0–3King's Lynn Town31 Oct · away
Pick: Hereford 58% · missed L
Worksop Town5–0King's Lynn Town27 Oct · away
Pick: Worksop Town 47% · hit D
King's Lynn Town0–0Southport24 Oct · home
Pick: Southport 39% · missed D
Merthyr Town1–1King's Lynn Town17 Oct · away
Pick: Merthyr Town 52% · missed Stourbridge
L
Needham Market4–1Stourbridge7 Nov · away
Pick: Stourbridge 41% · missed W
Stourbridge4–1Kettering Town31 Oct · home
Pick: Stourbridge 40% · hit W
Real Bedford0–1Stourbridge27 Oct · away
Pick: Real Bedford 64% · missed W
Loughborough University0–2Stourbridge24 Oct · away
Pick: Stourbridge 51% · hit L
Bury Town2–0Stourbridge17 Oct · away
Pick: Bury Town 48% · hit About this match
King's Lynn Town and Stourbridge meet in FA Trophy on Saturday 14 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 8 Nov, 08:45 UTC: King's Lynn Town win 47.9%, draw 21.7%, Stourbridge win 30.5%. The pick is King's Lynn Town win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.7%. Both teams to score: 55.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.